TSLA 基本面走弱：交付量下滑削弱了用于未来技术投资的现金流，储能业务增长放缓且利润率下降。
逐段跳播
我们有关于特斯拉股票投资者的重大消息，因为该公司已公布其季度产量和交付数据，以及已发布的吉瓦数据。我将把它们与该公司去年同期公布的数据进行比较，并讨论一些对特斯拉有利的宏观经济因素，以及一些对它不利的因素。
We have huge news for Tesla stock investors, as the company has announced its quarterly production and delivery figures , and the gigawatt figures that have been released. I will compare them with the figures announced by the company in the same period last year, and I will discuss some of the macroeconomic factors that were positive for Tesla and some of the factors that were negative for it .
接下来，我们将看看特斯拉的估值，并讨论在公司将重心转向自动驾驶汽车技术之后，其汽车交付和产量现在有多重要。特斯拉公布了其2026年第三季度的数据，录得486,532辆交付量。交付量是销量的一个指标，而这一数字低于去年。
Next, we will take a look at Tesla's valuation and discuss how important its car deliveries and production are now that the company has shifted its focus to self- driving car technology.
Tesla announced its figures for the third quarter of 2026, recording 486,532 deliveries. Deliveries are an indicator of sales, and this figure is lower than it was last year.
在去年同一季度，特斯拉交付了497,099辆汽车。因此，与去年同期相比，同比减少了约11,000辆。
In the same quarter last year, Tesla delivered 497,099 cars. So, there is an annual decrease of approximately 11,000 units compared to the same period last year.
有趣的是，其他车型，包括Cybertruck以及S和X车型（后两者已不再生产），录得8,295辆交付量，而去年同一季度为15,933辆，大约是一半。
Interestingly, the other models, which include the Cybertruck and the S and X models (the latter two are no longer in production), recorded 8,295 deliveries compared to 15,933 in the same quarter last year , roughly half.
这些是平均售价更高的汽车，是Model 3和Model Y平均售价的两倍，而后者现在构成了特斯拉交付量的大部分。
These are cars with a higher average selling price, twice the average selling price of the Model 3 and Model Y, which now make up the bulk of Tesla's deliveries.
请记住，特斯拉停产了Model S和X，以便为该公司今年早些时候提到的CyberCab和机器人腾出空间。与去年同期相比，今年有两个主要因素影响了特斯拉的销量。首先，如今的利率远高于一年前。
当你考虑买车时，大多数人会为这笔购买融资。因此，更高的利率意味着更高的月供，进而导致对买车感兴趣的人总体上更少。
Remember that Tesla halted production of the Model S and X to make room for the CyberCab and robots the company mentioned earlier this year. There are two main factors that have affected Tesla's sales this year compared to the same quarter last year .
Firstly, interest rates today are much higher than they were a year ago. When you think about buying a car, most people finance that purchase. Therefore, higher interest rates mean higher monthly payments, and consequently fewer individuals are interested in buying cars in general.
其次，电动汽车销售的税收抵免在去年被取消。因此，今年我们没有获得那项税收抵免，而它曾是促使一些人购买电动汽车的激励，因为必须记住，在将电动汽车与普通内燃机汽车进行比较时，电动汽车更贵。
Secondly, the tax credit for electric vehicle sales was cancelled last year. Therefore, this year we did not get that tax credit, which was an incentive for some people to buy an electric car, because it must be remembered that when comparing electric cars to regular internal combustion engine cars, electric cars are more expensive .
支撑电动汽车销量的另一个关键因素是油价上涨。电动汽车最初购买时可能更贵，但它们降低了整体运行成本，因为与充电相比，你在燃料上花的钱更少。随着油价上涨，这一等式变得有利于电动汽车，因为与给电池充电相比，加燃料时你每月节省更多。
因此，这对特斯拉以及所有电动汽车制造商来说是一个积极的激励，因为高油价鼓励更多个人考虑至少购买一辆电动汽车。
Another key factor supporting electric car sales is rising oil prices. Electric cars may be more expensive to buy initially, but they reduce overall running costs because you spend less money on fuel compared to charging.
With rising oil prices, the equation changes in favor of electric cars because you save more per month when filling up with fuel compared to charging the battery. Therefore, this was a positive incentive for Tesla and all electric car manufacturers, because high oil prices encourage more individuals to consider buying at least one electric car.
所以，我知道你们很多人正在想：“嗯，这对特斯拉来说其实并不重要。重要的是自动驾驶汽车的故事。公司估值的大部分来自其在自动驾驶汽车和机器人方面的雄心。所以，汽车销量并不是重点。”
我在很大程度上同意这一观点，但我要补充的是，为了让特斯拉获得投资下一代技术所需的流动性，它需要卖车，或者转向你们这些投资者和股东，要求更多资金。
So, I know many of you are thinking: "Well, that doesn't really matter to Tesla. It's the story of self- driving cars. The bulk of the company's valuation comes from its ambitions in self- driving cars and robots.
So, car sales aren't the point." I largely agree with this view, but I would add that in order for Tesla to obtain the liquidity to invest in next-generation technologies, it needs to sell cars or turn to you, as investors and shareholders, to ask for more money.
你更倾向于哪种？你更希望特斯拉卖车，并用那笔现金流投资于自动驾驶汽车和机器人，还是希望特斯拉转向投资者出售更多股票或借入数百亿美元，以获得投资自动驾驶技术所需的流动性？
What do you prefer? Would you prefer Tesla to sell cars and use that cash flow to invest in self- driving cars and robots, or for Tesla to turn to investors to sell more shares or borrow tens of billions to get the liquidity needed to invest in autonomous technology?
因此，这就是汽车销量对特斯拉如此重要的主要原因，因为它们是其主要现金流来源，使其能够投资于下一代技术。因此，汽车销量越好，其投资未来技术的能力就越强。
Therefore, this is the main reason why car sales are so important to Tesla, as they are the primary source of its cash flow that it can invest in next-generation technologies. Therefore, the better car sales become, the greater its ability to invest in future technologies.
这也扩大了用户基础。购买特斯拉的人越多，他们就越有可能订阅监督式自动驾驶并支付每月99美元的费用，而我预计随着技术改进，特斯拉会提高这一金额。他们会提高这一月度费用，以获得自动驾驶功能的使用权，而目前已有超过一百万人为此付费。
This also expands the user base. The more Teslas buy , the more likely they are to sign up for supervised self-driving and pay the $99 monthly fee, an amount I expect Tesla to raise as the technology improves.
They will raise that monthly premium to access the self-driving feature, and they already have more than a million people paying for it.
因此，购买特斯拉的人越多，向这些人销售自动驾驶技术功能的市场机会就越大。所以，这对特斯拉来说仍然重要，尽管我同意其估值的大部分来自其在自动驾驶汽车领域的雄心。
Therefore, the more Teslas buy, the greater the market opportunities to sell self-driving technology features to those people. So, this is still important for Tesla, although I agree that the bulk of its valuation comes from its ambitions in the field of self- driving cars.
在汽车销量下滑之际，储能也已成为特斯拉的一个重要类别。储能是一个持续增长的类别，该公司在上个季度部署了13.7吉瓦时的储能产品。这比他们去年同期部署的12.5吉瓦时增长了约10%。
Energy storage has also become an important category for Tesla amid declining car sales. Energy storage is one category that continues to grow, and the company deployed 13.7 gigawatt-hours of energy storage products in the last quarter.
This represents an increase of approximately 10% over the 12.5 gigawatt-hours they deployed in the same period last year.
这里的利润可能会更低，因为这些产品的关税已大幅上升，意味着特斯拉不得不支付更高的价格，因此这一品类的利润率可能会下降。此外，这一品类的增长率也在下降。
Profits here are likely to be lower because tariffs on these products have risen significantly, meaning Tesla has had to pay higher prices, and therefore profit margins in this category are likely to decrease.
Moreover, the growth rate in this category is also declining.
同样，这是特斯拉的另一个重要类别，因为它产生了公司可以投资于更具创新性领域的现金流。特斯拉股票目前的远期市盈率为171，约为标普500股票平均水平的五到六倍，也约为Amazon、Microsoft等一些AI公司的四到五倍。按远期市盈率计算，它比Nvidia贵约10倍。
Again, this is another important category for Tesla because it generates cash flow that the company can invest in more innovative areas. Tesla stock is now trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 171, about five or six times the average of S&P 500 stocks , and about four or five times that of some AI companies such as Amazon, Microsoft, and others.
It is about 10 times more expensive on a forward price-to-earnings basis compared to Nvidia.
这是一家估值非常高的公司，因为投资者预期其在自动驾驶汽车技术上会取得巨大成功。所以，如果特斯拉将这项技术推向市场而股价却没有上涨，不要感到意外。难道不是这样吗？
It is a very expensive company because investors expect a lot of success in self-driving car technology. So, do n't be surprised if Tesla releases this technology to the market and the stock price doesn't rise. Isn't that so?
而这正是特斯拉目前的情况。由于投资者预期其自动驾驶汽车技术会成功，该股已经以极高的估值交易。这不再只是一个疑问或好奇的问题；投资者现在认为这是不可避免的。这必然会实现。只是时间问题，仅此而已。
投资者已经变得自满，认定这将是不可避免的成功，因此该股目前的定价对应171倍的远期市盈率。
And that's exactly what's happening with Tesla here. The stock is already trading at extremely high valuations as investors anticipate the success of its self-driving car technology.
It is no longer just a question or a matter of curiosity; investors now believe this is inevitable. That will inevitably happen. It's just a matter of time, that's all . Investors have become complacent in their expectations that this will be an inevitable success, and so the stock is now priced in at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 171.
这个频道对 $TSLA 的历次判断
Parkev Tatevosian, CFA 在这只股票上共 4 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。