$TSLA

TSLA 适合作为长期成长型持仓持有,尽管其在电动车领域处于领先地位,但缺乏推动股价突破 500 美元的近期催化剂。

《EVs Offer Lasting TSLA Strength as Company Eyes Cybercab, Optimus Prospects》
Schwab Network发布 2026-10-07 · 27 段内容
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27 段内容
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好,现在该深入谈谈特斯拉的事了。特斯拉是我们今天技术分析关注的焦点,与我们同在的是Battle Road Research的总裁兼分析师Ben Rose。

Okay, it's time to delve into Tesla affairs. Tesla is the focus of our technical attention today, and with us is Ben Rose, president and analyst at Battle Road Research.

说到特斯拉,我们很久以前就不再把它仅仅看作一家汽车公司了。我认为最近几天,尤其是随着特斯拉公布本季度汽车交付量的消息,人们有一种感觉,即它比大家想象的更像一家汽车公司。

When we think of Tesla, we long ago stopped considering it just a car company. I think that in recent days, especially with Tesla's announcement regarding its car deliveries this quarter, there is a sense that it is more of a car company than people think.

事实上,从相对角度来看,他们在电动汽车市场表现非常好。所以,我认为这可能是过去两个月里发生变化的事情之一。是的,没错。我们在交付量和产量方面看到了他们不错的数据,而且他们仍然是所在领域的领导者,对吧?

它最初是第一家公司并保持了这一领先地位,后来所有这些竞争都出现了,人们担心大家是否还会对特斯拉汽车感兴趣,但我们看到了。我们知道这是真的。

In fact, on a relative basis, they are performing very well in the electric vehicle market . So, I think this is one of the things that has probably changed in the last two months.

Yes, that's right. We've seen good numbers from them in terms of deliveries and production, and they're still leaders in their field, aren't they? It started as the first company and maintained that lead, then all this competition came along, and there were concerns about whether people would still be interested in Tesla cars, but we saw that. We know this is true.

这里有一些数字:总计超过486,000辆汽车,Model 3和Model Y表现良好,其他车型也是如此。在我们继续关注特斯拉的同时,让我们想想特斯拉还做些什么。我们把它看作一家电池储能设施公司。

我们也在自动驾驶出租车和自动驾驶汽车领域考虑它。

Here are some figures: a total of over 486,000 cars, and the Model 3 and Model Y performed well, as did the other models. As we continue to look at Tesla, let's consider what else Tesla does .

We think of it as a battery energy storage facility. We are also considering it in the field of self-driving taxis and autonomous vehicles .

嗯,对于那些认识特斯拉多年的人来说,他们可能还记得最初的“Roadster”是一款双座跑车,一款双座电动汽车。那是他们推出的第一款车型。从那里开始,他们转向了更适合大众市场的汽车,可以说是这样,比如Model S以及最近的Model Y和Model 3。

Well, for those who have known Tesla for many years, they may recall that the original "Roadster" was a two-seater sports car, a two- seater electric car. It was the first model they ever introduced .

From there, they moved on to cars that were more suitable for the mass market, so to speak, such as the Model S and more recently the Model Y and Model 3.

“Roadster”这款车是特斯拉的确认,表明它仍然是一家成熟且高水平的电动汽车公司。一家能够创造并交付一款像法拉利一样快速而强劲的电动汽车的公司,而且很可能有着同样约20万美元的价格标签。

The " Roadster" car is Tesla's confirmation that it remains a sophisticated and high- level electric car company. A company capable of creating and delivering an electric car that is fast and powerful, just like a Ferrari, and likely to have the same price tag of around $200,000.

所以,我认为这更像是一种象征性的表态,表明他们打算继续在电动汽车技术和性能方面保持领先。

So, I think it's more of a symbolic statement of their intention to remain leaders in electric vehicle technology and performance.

是的,因为我们不知道他们实际卖出了多少,而且我们在那款皮卡或他们生产的其他东西上看到了这一点,数字很少,对吧?它不是一款量产的产品,或者说人们不感兴趣,对吧?

Yes, because we don't know how many they actually sell , and we saw that with the pickup truck or something else they produced, and the numbers were scarce, weren't they ? It's not a product that's mass- produced , or people weren't interested, were they?

它有点像一个创新产品。当我们思考电动汽车业务和整体需求时,我们应该假设它仍在持续,对吧?为了让特斯拉继续作为一家商业公司存在。

It was somewhat like an innovative product. When we think about the electric vehicle business and overall demand, we should assume that it is still ongoing, right? In order for Tesla to continue as a commercial company.

国会就电动汽车做出的其他决定呢,那可能对特斯拉或其他电动汽车公司产生什么影响?是的。嗯,首先也是最重要的,正如我在屏幕上看到的数字所示,特斯拉今年有望交付约200万辆电动汽车。这仍然是一个非常强劲的数字。

What about other decisions made by Congress regarding electric vehicles, and what impact might that have on Tesla or other electric vehicle companies? Yes. Well, first and foremost, as the numbers I see on the screen show, Tesla is on track to deliver around 2 million electric vehicles this year. That's still a very strong number .

业绩可能与去年同期持平,但他们仍然是市场领导者。他们占据美国电动汽车市场超过50%的份额。事实上,他们正在获得更大的市场份额。

The results are likely to be consistent year-on-year, but they remain market leaders. They hold more than 50% of the electric vehicle market in the United States. In fact, they are gaining a larger market share .

美国电动汽车市场正在下滑,因为我刚才指出的原因,即在那个大法案中,所有针对电动汽车的联邦税收减免都被取消了。因此,这抽掉了特斯拉和电动汽车领域其他公司脚下的地毯。

The U.S. electric vehicle market is in decline because of what I just pointed out, which is that in the big bill, all federal tax breaks for electric vehicles were removed. Therefore, it pulled the rug out from under Tesla and others in the field of electric cars.

但他们的销量保持相对稳定,而其他公司的销量却下降了,在我看来,这对特斯拉整体来说是一个好迹象。是的,你看,我们经历了一些起伏,对吧?当我们想到中国、欧洲等地时,数据更为积极,但它们经受住了时间的考验。所以,我们暂时可以关注这一点。

But the fact that their sales have remained relatively stable while others' sales have declined is, in my opinion, a good sign for Tesla in general. Yes, look, we've had some ups and downs, haven't we ?

The figures were more positive when we think about China, Europe, etc., but they have stood the test of time. So, we can focus on that for the time being.

该股目前一年内下跌了约17%。它从约500美元跌至几个月前最低点的300美元以下,现在为376美元。当我们主要与投资者交谈时,你对人们应该如何看待这只股票有什么看法?

The stock has currently fallen by about 17% in one year. It has fallen from around $500 to below $300 at its lowest point a few months ago, and is now at $376. When we talk to investors mostly, what are your thoughts on how people should view this stock?

是的。我们很幸运在本日历年初下调了该股的评级。是的,我们对该股的估值为“持有”级别。在我看来,这一估值意味着它是一个可以长期持有以博取增长的选项。

Yes. Well, we were lucky to have lowered our rating on the stock at the beginning of this calendar year. Yes, we are valuing the stock at the " hold" level. In my opinion, this valuation means it is an option to hold for long-term growth.

特斯拉在很大程度上仍然是一家汽车公司。85%的收入来自汽车。另有12%来自储能,这对他们来说是一项不断增长且重要的业务。

Tesla is still largely a car company. 85% of revenue comes from automobiles. Another 12% comes from energy storage, which is a growing and important business for them.

即将出现的东西,而且我应该说是在相对长期的视野上,仍然是“Optimus”机器人,它仍处于研发阶段。关于完全自动驾驶汽车,特斯拉刚刚开始在得克萨斯州推出“CyberCab”,这是一款没有方向盘、踏板或侧后视镜的电动汽车。

它是一款完全自动驾驶汽车,正被用作其机器人出租车车队的一部分。

The things that are on the horizon, and I should say on the somewhat long-term horizon , are still the "Optimus" robot, which is still in the research and development stage. Regarding fully autonomous vehicles, Tesla has just begun rolling out the "CyberCab " in Texas, an electric vehicle that has no steering wheel, pedals, or side mirrors.

It is a fully autonomous vehicle, and is being used as part of their fleet of robotic taxis.

但我仍然认为,距离某种形式的商业化上市还有几年时间。也就是说,你或我能够去买一辆“Cyber Cab”。我认为我们距离那一步还很远。

But I still think we are a few years away from some kind of commercial availability. That is, either you or I can go and buy a " Cyber Cab". I think we are still far from that.

所以,我认为特斯拉的前景中有一些不错的长期因素。电动汽车的表现仍然相对强劲。没错。但我们没有看到该股有任何能够,可以说,重新突破500美元水平的即时催化剂。

So, I think there are some good long-term things on Tesla's horizon. The performance of electric vehicles remains relatively strong. correct. But we do not see any immediate catalyst for the stock to be able, so to speak, to break back above the $500 level.

好,让我在这里打断一下。当我思考你关于地点所说的内容时,这是对的。Optimus是另一个领域。我们谈到了能源,我们谈到了“Optimus”,我们谈到了电动汽车,以及所有这些不同的东西。

你对该股处于观望状态,因为你担心它的方向,而且没有真正的催化剂。

Okay, let me interrupt here. When I think about what you're saying regarding the location, it's true. Optimus was another field. We talked about energy , we talked about " Optimus", we talked about electric vehicles, and all these different things.

You are in a holding pattern regarding the stock because you are worried about its direction and there is no real catalyst.

对你来说,让你说出“我现在爱特斯拉”的颠覆性因素是什么?是那些正在提供的出租车吗?我的意思是,我当时在凤凰城另一个城市的机场,所有这些Waymo汽车都在没有司机的情况下前来接人。

我们接近那一步了吗?未来5年内,特斯拉的主要收入来源将是什么,才能把股价带回500美元的水平?

What is the game-changing factor for you to say "I love Tesla now"? Are these the taxis that are being offered ? I mean, I was at the airport in another city in Phoenix, and all these Waymo cars were coming to pick people up without drivers.

Are we close to that? What will be Tesla's main source of income within 5 years to bring the stock back to the $500 level?

没错。我们并不是从3到5年的时间跨度来看待这件事。我认为我们希望看到一些新车型取得成功的证据。

correct. Well, we're not looking at it from a time perspective that spans 3 to 5 years. I think we would like to see some evidence of the success of some of the new models.

我提到了特斯拉“Semi”卡车,这是一款Series V8重型卡车。它显然是面向非消费市场的。它们刚刚开始铺开。

You know, I mentioned the Tesla "Semi" truck, which is a Series V8 heavy-duty truck. Nations, it is clearly geared towards, as you know, the non- consumer market. Nations, they have just begun to spread.

有一些关于所谓“Model 2”的传闻,它将是某种Cyber Cab版本,但具备全电动汽车的所有功能,而入门价格低于“Model 3”。

Um, there are some rumors about a so- called "Model 2" that will be sort of a Cyber Cab version, but you know, with all the features of a fully electric car, but at a lower entry price than the "Model 3".

因此,我们可能会看到该公司产品线中出现一些新的销量车型。因此,我认为距离我们看到“Optimus”机器人商业化上市还有几年时间,但它在工厂运营等方面可能具有巨大的潜力。

Therefore, we may see some new sales-volume models emerge from the company's lineup. Therefore , as you know, I think it will be a few years before we see the commercial launch of the "Optimus" robot, but it could have enormous potential in factory operations and so on.

所以,好。我认为,说了这么多,意思就是我们会继续关注正在发生的事情,但当我们获得一些证据表明其中任何一个变量确实开始影响利润表时,我认为那才是我们开始变得更加兴奋的时候。

So, okay. Um, I think that's a long way of saying that we'll continue to monitor what's happening, but when we get some evidence that any of those variables are actually starting to affect the income statement, I think that's when we'll start to get more excited.

而且你看,他本人曾一度说过每个人都会拥有自己的机器人,不是吗?他不是说过类似这样的话吗?根据你的观点,你认为当他们拥有一款人人都想要、而且或许更实惠的吸引人的汽车时,或者当Optimus机器人成为主流时,那将是未来决定这只股票的因素,或者说真正的催化剂。

And look, he himself said at one point that everyone would have their own robot, didn't he? Didn't he say something like that? Based on your perspective, you believe that when they have an attractive car that everyone wants and that is perhaps more affordable, or when Optimus robots become mainstream, that will be the deciding factor or the real catalyst for this stock in the future.

这个频道对 $TSLA 的历次判断

Schwab Network 在这只股票上共 11 条判断,这里只列相邻的几条。

2026-10-07本条
好,现在该深入谈谈特斯拉的事了。特斯拉是我们今天技术分析关注的焦点,与我们同在的是Battle Road Research的总裁兼分析师Ben Rose。
2026-10-02看跌
我们不持有特斯拉股票,因为它太贵了。
原话 03:05 ›
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