特斯拉最终应与 SpaceX 合并，但不会很快——12月3日的年度股东大会投票中并未提及合并——预测市场认为到 2027 年春季前后达成交易的概率接近 60%。说话者预计特斯拉将获得规模未知的收购溢价，并建议建立特斯拉/SpaceX 仓位。
逐段跳播
如果我没记错的话，明天还有财报电话会。然后周三轮到特斯拉。这将是重要的一周，令人兴奋的一周。
And we have the earnings call as well tomorrow if I'm not mistaken. And then Tesla on Wednesday. It's going to be a big week, exciting week.
1800亿美元基本上相当于特斯拉运营近二十年之后年收入的两倍。Ron Baron知道自己持有SpaceX和特斯拉的大量股份。他非常相信Elon Musk，而且长期以来一直如此。
$180 billion is basically twice the revenue that Tesla makes after being in operation for nearly two decades. Ron Baron knows that he has a huge bags in both SpaceX and Tesla. He's a big believer in Elon Musk and has been for a long time.
关于特斯拉合并的最新进展，事实与传言。各种消息满天飞，预测市场、专家、分析师，所有人现在都到了这个阶段：赶紧合并吧，我们听都听烦了。
Merger update with Tesla facts versus rumors. So much stuff flying around, you know, poly markets and calcies and experts and analysts and everybody's kind of at this stage is like just merge already. We're tired of hearing about it.
首先，巴克莱上周也发布了报告。他们模拟了SpaceX以全股票交易收购特斯拉的情形，认为这是更可能的结构。再说一次，这只是猜测。不，不是一笔交易。
So first of all, Barclays came out last week as well. They modeled SpaceX acquiring Tesla in an all stock deal as the likelier structure. Again, it was speculation. No, not a deal.
特斯拉12月3日召开年度股东大会。投票事项里没有提到合并之类的。所以这是另一回事。所以，这事不会那么快发生，我不相信。
Uh Tesla has their annual meeting on December 3rd. Uh there's no mention of a merger in the ballot, etc. So that's another thing. So, it's not going to happen that soon, I don't believe.
当然，特斯拉在xAI持有数十亿美元的大笔股份，这些股份变成了SpaceX的股票。所以，这很好。那里已经存在某种共同所有权了。
Um, Tesla has, of course, a big multi-billion dollar stake in XAI, which became SpaceX shares. So, that's good. There's already kind of co-ownership there.
但再说一次，没有8-K文件，没有新闻稿，什么都没有。不过Elon也在一些非常隐晦的、类似SpaceX和特斯拉的推文里暗示了这件事。
But again, there's no AKs, there's no press releases, no nothing. But Elon is also hinting at it in some very breadcrumb like SpaceX, Tesla tweets and things.
当然，上周我们还有车展。那是我这辈子见过的最棒的演示。引发了很多EDS，但仍然很有趣。总之，这两家公司要走到一起。问题是何时？
And of course, we had the car show last week. The best demo I've ever seen in my life. Caused a lot of EDS, but still was fun. Anyhow, um these two companies are going together. The question is when?
而当我们看预测市场时，SpaceX与特斯拉合并的几率在过去几天里飙升到大约2027年春季前后接近60%。
And when we look at the prediction markets, the odds of SpaceX Tesla merger spiked over the last few days to nearly 60% circa spring 2027.
Ark认为特斯拉和SpaceX到2031年将达到66至67吉瓦。顺便说一句，这已经纳入了我的估值模型。而Musk说过，如果它们只达到这个水平，他会非常失望。
Uh Ark believe Tesla, SpaceX will get to 66 to 67 gawatt by 2031. That goes into my valuation model, by the way. And Musk said he would be very disappointed if that's all they get to.
所以再说一次，他们拥有护城河，拥有优势，拥有建设能力。没有其他人能跟上他们，或者更快地将东西变现。这意味着你应该非常看涨，而我只在谈论算力，仅此而已。
So again, they've got the Moes, they got the advantages, the ability to build. nobody else is able to keep up with them or monetize things quicker. This means you should be very bullish and I'm only talking compute, nothing more.
而且，特斯拉也不会消失。它们会合并。会有溢价。我们还不知道有多少。
And, uh, Tesla doesn't go away either. They're going to merge. There will be a premium. We don't know how much yet.
我这辈子从没见过这样的公司，从来没有。我以前也说过我从没见过像特斯拉这样的公司，但哇。你能想象这两家合在一起吗？那将非常疯狂。
Never seen a company like this in my life, ever. And I used to say I've never seen a company like Tesla either, but wow. Can you imagine the two of them together? That's going to be wild.
谢谢你，Shund Cybern Tesla。如果你还没有开始建仓特斯拉和特斯拉SpaceX，那就开始吧。我知道价格不一样。有解锁期临近等等，但从盈利角度看这会很有意思。让我们看看是否也能得到一些不错的盈利惊喜。
Thank you, Shund Cybern Tesla. get start building a bag of Tesla Tesla SpaceX if you haven't already. Uh I know that the prices are different. There's unlocks coming and everything else, but this will be interesting from an earnings perspective.
Let's see if we get some nice earning surprises, too.
观察点
这个频道对 $TSLA 的历次判断
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