对特斯拉长期非常乐观、短期适度乐观：FSD、robotaxi、Optimus 和能源业务使其不再只是一家电动车制造商，这支撑了其170倍、而传统车企仅12倍的估值；与 SpaceX 合并可能带来溢价，利润率虽弱但低预期已被计入，近期涨幅有限。

Tesla shares are rising slightly. Some of this is due to the buzz surrounding the possibility of a collaboration between Tesla and SpaceX. For investors who bought Tesla shares at the beginning of this year, they have been disappointed by this performance so far.

Yes, you know, when you actually look at the last quarter, they took a big hit to profits. The shares were sold and traded at a lower price for a long time, but we have now reached the point where the stock has fully recovered from that.

So, wherever we were before they released that latest report, we are now at that level or higher .

I think the good news is that the lower expectations have been somewhat taken into account with regard to the automotive production side, or at least the margins. Because those margins have decreased significantly.

As you know, a lot of this, yes, a lot of it relates to the possibility of a merger with SpaceX. I think much of the appeal lies in the fact that the company being acquired is usually the one that receives the price premium.

So, in this case, with SpaceX, as you know, being 30 or 40% larger than Tesla in terms of market capitalization, you might think that Tesla is the one that will merge into SpaceX.

So, I think this is one of the reasons why people are interested in the stock, because they might get a quick premium if that happens.

But, you know, if you get that out of your mind , which I don't think you should . I mean, this is really important. But , if we focus only on the company itself, you know, we have figures showing that interest on social media on an annual basis has decreased by about 13%.

But last month that turned into a 9% increase now.

Much of that goes back to the amazing demonstration they did of the Roadster. I don't think many people will buy a "roadster" car, but you can see that yellow line in the graph that looks straight, and it's almost a vertical line that shows that people are talking about this more and more .

So, I think this is basically just a marketing move. You know, it puts the Tesla name in consumers' minds, so maybe you won't buy a " Roadster", but you'll wonder : "Hey, what can my Model 3 and Model Y do?"

It obviously doesn't fly, but it's still interesting and grabs your attention.

Similarly, visits to the tesla.com website, as you know, have increased by nearly 8% year-over-year, and by 28% over the past month. Therefore, this number has moved in a positive and noticeable way.

Again, much of that goes back to that promotional campaign they did , but it's still a lot of interest and I think the headlines are worth paying attention to.

What is interesting about their current approach is that the number of shipments of the fully autonomous driving system to people who buy the car and get the feature has increased by more than 50%.

I think it's now at 55%, which is a big number because it represents recurring revenue for them, and it also provides more data to the system, which makes it learn to drive better. So, it's a win-win situation for Tesla.

I know their profit margins have decreased. They have cut costs a lot and I think profit margins have decreased significantly, but when you look at the business model, although it is not an accurate comparison, I would use it.

It's almost like when a company like Hewlett-Packard sells a printer at a cheap price, but you have to buy the ink every time , right? You are paying for that fully autonomous driving feature.

You can either buy it outright for $8,000 or pay $100 per month.

You know, General Motors and Ford don't get $100 a month from anyone. So, this is a different business model; it's a different type of business. I believe that these cars, after I rode in some of them while they were fully autonomous, have brought about a completely radical change . Nobody else has anything like that.

If you're talking about a company like Waymo or something similar, I think that battle between CyberCab (robotic taxi) and Waymo would be completely one-sided. I mean, Waymo costs 6 times more than CyberCap.

So, you know that the prices have to be higher, and both of them perform the required task. Ah, so the future is really bright for Tesla.

All of this without even mentioning "Optimus" yet. So, um , you know, we're very optimistic about it. I think this quarter is likely to hold a slightly positive surprise.

The stock is down on a year-to-date basis, although it has recovered. But again, you have that decline from the last quarter factored into the price. So, people have slightly lower expectations , while there is renewed interest due to that crazy marketing move with the flying "roadster".

So , I think we are generally very optimistic in the long run . I think that in the short term we tend to be optimistic about this particular forecast.

That helped me understand the matter, because it tells me that this company, or at least its stock, is still priced as an electric car company, as if it only sells electric cars.

You can see the yellow line decreasing. And you see the stock decreasing at the same time. Did you read that correctly ? If so , this looks like an opportunity because " Robotaxi," full self-driving, "Optimus" robots, energy storage, and all these other things make the company price or trend its stock based solely on electric vehicle sales.

I don't think you should price this company based on electric vehicle sales anymore.

But still, one last thing, Landon, if you're practical, the most important part of that flying car was the suction power, and the fact that it was able to climb and hold on to that road.

Consider the safety advancements that a car with suction power can provide for vehicle safety. It's unbelievable.

But Landon, I want to focus on that chart that shows them both heading downwards. Are they pricing this company as solely an electric car company?

Yes, okay, I'll move on to the graph, but you have a great point of view on safety. I mean , I remember reading about Tesla when they first conducted safety tests , and they practically broke the test because they couldn't make the Tesla roll over, due to the weight of its base because of the battery.

Now, if you add the fact that if you are driving too fast and have to swerve suddenly, it usually results in the car flipping over. But if they can provide a dynamic system that holds the road using this suction system, that increases the level of safety even further.

So, I liked that very much. I had never thought about that before. This is an excellent point.

Now, this diagram illustrates three different things in reality. It shows the price of Tesla stock. The bold yellow line shows people who talk about Tesla and its products online.

As for that dashed line, it represents people who are talking about buying an electric car or are interested in it. This percentage has already decreased, as I said, by about 8% year-on-year.

Tesla's stock fell by a slightly larger percentage . Meanwhile, people's purchase intentions have decreased by about 13%. Therefore, they all move in roughly the same direction.

But yes, we are seeing a decline in demand for electric cars. However, as I said, I don't think it's an accurate way to say that Tesla should move with the demand for electric cars; it's much more than just an electric car.

I think full autonomous driving is probably the most interesting thing. We did not include this graph, but it is trending upwards and to the right. People are much more interested in fully autonomous driving, and that interest will continue to grow.

I think it will have a diffuse character, because once you ride in one , you will want to buy one , and then you will want to show it to your friends, and they will buy one too. It's truly a game-changer.

I know , I have a son who will get his driver's license in about 6 months, and I will tell you that I am seriously considering buying him a Model 3 instead of an internal combustion engine car, solely for safety reasons.

I don't want him to have complete control. Press that button, go to school, and stay safe. And this, in addition to the elderly, is truly unbelievable .

So, once again, all of that without even mentioning "Optimus," which is considered a kind of buy option for the future. I think it sounds far- fetched, you know, but I believe it will happen.

I think they will reach a point where they sell robots for $30,000. And when they do that, it will only happen after they reach the stage of self-replication, where robots build other robots; The first robots they build will be needed to continue building more, and it will expand at an astonishing rate.

If you actually had the ability to offer $30,000 robots that could work for 8 hours and perform light tasks, they would enter every business and most homes, and it would be incredible.

So, add to that SpaceX's projects. I mean, there are a lot of possibilities that could go well, but you know what? That 's why you're paying 170 times as much compared to most car companies which are 12 times as much, right?

So, you're paying for added value, but based on what this company is capable of doing, and what SpaceX has been able to achieve, I think they'll continue to do so.

In addition, as I said, the short-term interest generated by this marketing ploy is very strong. I think a lot of people are looking at Tesla now that they weren't looking at it before.

My only request is, please, I wish they would make a car in the style of a "Yukon" or a "Suburban", would n't you? A large, genuine four-wheel drive vehicle that can accommodate six passengers.

Let's get rid of "Cyber Truck". Let's get one of those instead. If they do that, I'll buy two tomorrow.

But apart from that, we are very optimistic about Tesla in the long term and moderately optimistic in the short term because the numbers have started to move in the right direction.

Certainly, we are at positive 22. So, we are inclined towards optimism here, and much of that has to do with expectations. We believe expectations are low. The arrow also shows that, and all the numbers are moving in the right direction.

This is not a resounding success, but it certainly gives us an optimistic outlook.