特斯拉第三季度是一份非常好的财报，缓解了人们对机器人和AI支出的担忧：每股收益48美分，超过44美分的预期；毛利率19.6%，超过17.8%的预期；自由现金流为15.3亿美元，而预期为-49.9亿美元。FSD订阅数174万，超过预期；储能业务表现疲软。
逐段跳播
是的，我们看到这里下跌6%。但我们要再次跳转，因为特斯拉在预定发布时间之前就公布了。所以我们直接来看这些数字。
Yeah, we're looking at 6% lower here. But we're going to jump again because Tesla has come out a little in advance of its reporting time. So we'll dive right into these numbers.
第三季度每股收益为48美分。预期是44美分，但低于去年同期的50美分。营收为280.5亿美元。这略微低于预期，预期约为281.3亿美元。同比也小幅下降，降幅为2.1%。
Q3 their EPS coming in at 48 cents. The estimate was looking for 44, but it is down from 50 cents a year ago. Revenue coming in at 28.05 billion. That just narrowly missed the estimates which were looking for about 28.13.
It is also down fractionally, 210 of a percent year-over-year.
汽车业务营收为205.6亿美元，超过了预期的198.3亿美元。能源发电和储能营收为28.8亿美元。这明显不及预期。市场预期为39.1亿美元。所以能源和储能部门这块差了超过10亿美元。
Their automotive revenue of 20.56 billion beat the estimates looking for 19.83 there. Energy generation and storage revenue came in at 2.88 billion. That missed pretty significantly.
The street was looking for 3.91 billion. So it's a more than a billion dollar miss there in terms of that energy and storage unit.
服务及其他营收为46.1亿美元。这确实超过了市场共识的43亿美元。他们的毛利率是19.6%，而预期是17.8%。
Services and other revenues coming in at 4.61 billion. That did beat the consensus was 4.3 billion. Their gross margins at 19.6% the estimate was for 17.8.
他们的自由现金流并非负值，为15.3亿美元，而预期是-49.9亿美元。所以，在上一季度为负之后，他们这次确实把自由现金流转正了。
Their free cash flow which is not negative uh is 1.53 billion versus an estimate of -4.99 billion. So, they did turn uh free cash flow positive here after being negative in the previous quarter.
他们还表示，其活跃的全自动驾驶订阅数达到174万。这超过了预期，市场原本预计略高于150万；他们表示，北美的全自动驾驶搭载率超过75%。
They also say their active full self-driving subscriptions reach 1.74 million. That beat the estimates looking for a little bit more than one and a half million full self-driving attach rate they said exceeds 75% in North America.
他们还以四年来最大的乘用车积压订单量结束了本季度。
Uh they also ended the quarter with its largest passenger vehicle backlog in four years.
他们已开始在Fremont生产Optimus，并在Nevada生产Tesla Semi。而Austin Fab的设备调试定于2027年开始。
They've begun production for Optimus in Fremont and Tesla Semi in Nevada. And the Austin Fab equipment commissioning is set to begin in 2027.
Tesla还表示，计划在年底前达到400兆瓦的SI训练算力。所以这里有很多数字需要消化。但让我们深入看看我们手头已有的这些。市场还在琢磨这些数据。我认为大概率是在等Elon Musk发言，但我们正在走高。KG，这里最让你注意的是什么？
Tesla also says that it plans to reach 400 megawatts of SI training compute by year end. So a lot of numbers uh to digest there. But let's dive into the ones that we have. Uh the street is still mulling these.
I think likely waiting to hear from Elon Musk, but we are moving higher. KG, what stands out to you most here?
我认为，利润率改善是第一个真正突出的点。我们必须注意到，我们在美国看不到过去那样的补贴。所以这花了一些时间，而且很可能仍在消化基本面，但我们现在开始看到更多正常化，可以说是在没有政府刺激的情况下。所以，这是一点。
>> Well, margin improvement, I think, is the first thing that really kind of stands out. we have to, you know, be mindful of the fact that we are not seeing those subsidies here in the United States like we have seen in the past.
So, it took some time and it's still kind of probably going through the the fundamentals here, but we are now starting to see more of a normalization without the the the stimulus if you will from the government. So, that's one thing.
我在这里关注的另一点是FSD。采用率确实大幅超出了市场预期，而且这也是一种服务类收入，实际上可能随着时间大幅增长，这一点开始见效了。我的意思是，归根结底，几年前这对那些Tesla爱好者来说似乎更像是一种幻想，而现在它实际上成了现实，他们开始看到它改善。
Uh the other thing here that I'm looking at is FSD. the adoption did exceed the street's expectations handedly and that's also a services type revenue that could actually grow substantially over time and that is something that is uh is starting to work out.
I mean at the end of the day you know a couple years ago it seemed like it was more of a a fantasy for those that were Tesla um enthusiasts and now it's actually a reality and and they are starting to see it uh improve.
说到能源存储，我并不太意外。分析师相当擅长提前两三个季度看出那个收入数字会是多少，只是因为那块业务的规模。我认为最后但同样重要的是，Tesla交付的车辆多于其生产的车辆。所以这实际上消耗了库存。
这对他们来说也是一个顺风因素。所以，清理库存、改善毛利率以及FSD产品供应。对于一只过去几周看到很多好消息的股票来说，这是一份非常好的报告。
not too surprised when it comes to energy energy storage. Analysts are pretty good at being able to to see out two three quarters to see what that revenue number is going to be just because of the scale of that business.
And I think last but not least, Tesla delivered more vehicles than it did uh produce. And so that actually drew on inventories. That's also a tailwind for them as well. So getting rid of inventories, improving uh gross margins as well as the FSD product offering.
This is a a really good report for a name that's seen a lot of good news over the last couple weeks.
Sam，我们已经广泛讨论过Tesla、SpaceX和Elon Musk。当我们看这里时，我知道我们在预览中谈过的一大话题是自由现金流以及上一季度出人意料的负自由现金流。他们几乎完全回到了第一季度的水平。
我记得当时是14.4亿美元。本季度我们现在是15.3亿美元。但更重要的是，预期是负近50亿美元。所以，我的意思是，我们比预期高出65亿美元。
>> And Sam, and we've talked extensively about Tesla, about SpaceX, about Elon Musk. And as we look here, one of the big conversations I know we talked in preview about was the free cash flow and the surprise negative free cash flow last quarter.
They've almost completely returned themselves back to where they were in Q1. I think they were at 1.44 billion. We're at 1.53 billion now in this quarter. But more significantly, the expectation was for negative almost $5 billion.
So, I mean, we're $6.5 billion off of the expectation.
我很想知道，你认为我们还会从Elon Musk那里听到更多关于合并的消息，还是他昨天已经把所有要说的都说了？谁知道呢？谁知道呢，Marley？我的意思是，我完全不知道。我们只能等着看。
但是的，我认为自由现金流那个数字确实让我印象深刻，也是指标之一，因为从你读到的所有内容以及我们现在从这份报告中听到的一切来看，似乎确实回应了市场在报告前真正关注的许多领域。
I'd love to know what if you think uh we're going to hear anything more from Elon Musk about the merger tie up or if he said all he's going to say yesterday. >> Who knows? Who knows, Marley?
I mean, I have no idea. We'll have to wait and see. But yes, I think that number on the free cash flow really stood out to me as well as one of the metrics because it seems like from everything you read out and everything we're hearing from this report right now really addressed a lot of the areas that the street was really focused on going into this report.
我的意思是，就市场反应而言，这似乎从一开始就潜在缓解了一些担忧，关于他们所做的所有投资，尤其是那些新领域，比如机器人和AI等等。因为他们显然提到了交付量——你和我刚才还在谈美国这里的电动车——但能源存储业务是的，有点疲软，但自由现金流，显然他们此前指引的资本开支今年比去年多得多。
I mean this seems to have potentially as far as the reaction is concerned straight out of the gate here kind of eased some of the worries about you know all the investments that they were making particularly in those kind of new areas like uh robots um and you know AI etc. because they touched on obviously the deliveries uh you and I were just speaking about EVs here in the US a minute ago but the energy storage business yes a bit soft but the free cash flow um obviously the capex that they had guided for uh was a lot more this year than last year
所以正如我所说，我认为这次电话会议除了他们报告的数字之外，重要的是了解一些细节，显然关于这些钱流向哪里，比如Optimus生产线、Cybercab产能爬坡、Terra Fab工厂、FSD采用率，尤其是考虑到我们在欧洲听到的一些进展。
so as I said um I think what is important on this call beyond the numbers that they're reporting is just some color on obviously where that money is going like the Optimus production lines uh the cyber cab ramp the terra fab factory the FSD adoption uh particularly given some of the developments in Europe that we've heard about.
当然，就Robotaxi、Cybercab的下一个目标城市而言，他们计划扩展到哪些地方；人形机器人Optimus的最新进展，生产处于什么阶段，我们何时会看到交付，何时会看到部署，这些东西何时会进入我们家中帮我们从冰箱里拿东西。
Um certainly as far as the next target cities for robo taxis, cyber cabs, where they're planning to expand to an update on the humanoids, uh the Optimus uh robots of course, where does production stand, when we will see deliveries, when we will see deployments, when these things will be in our house getting stuff for us from the fridge.
但是的，合并的话题。我认为他昨晚显然暗示了这一点。他说这会是他支持的事情。KG和我今天早些时候也谈过这个，我相信你自己也和Marley有过很多对话，关于这两只股票可能有多紧密地联系在一起，就它们时而同步交易而言，然后显然如果这真的成为潜在结果，就股东批准而言意味着什么，但还有所有其他相关方，因为显然Elon Musk涉足很多不同的领域，中国也包括在内。
Um but yes, the merger talk. Um I think obviously he hinted at that last night. He said it would be something that he would support. Um, we were talking about this KG and I earlier today as well and I'm sure you had many conversations yourself Marley about, you know, how closely tied these two stocks could be, you know, as far as you know, trading in tandem now and then obviously if this does become um, you know, the potential outcome, what that would mean as far as, you know, shareholder approval, but then, you know, all the other parties involved because obviously Elon Musk has his fingers in lots of different pies and China included there as well.
是的，绝对如此。我的意思是，就看这波走势，Tesla正在走高。我们现在上涨近2%，等待听到Elon Musk发言。
>> Yeah, absolutely. I mean, as we just look at the move, it's getting higher for Tesla. We're up almost 2% now as we await to hear uh from Elon Musk,
这个频道对 $TSLA 的历次判断
Schwab Network 在这只股票上共 17 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。