TSLA 必须突破当前水平才能确认上升趋势；周线低点抬高、楔形/三角形形态以及 MACD 转正构成建设性信号，但 MACD 尚未上穿零轴，且价格接近年底前后可能出现的顶部。数周内它可能大幅上涨，也可能大幅下跌；跌破 295 将支持下跌情形。
逐段跳播
至于最后一只股票，我们看到市场对财报出现了一些有意思的反应。股价变化不大，盘中略有下跌，但跌幅没有今天大盘平均跌幅那么大。我们期待把特斯拉股票作为你的第三个选项。我还想听听你对利润的结论，Mike。
As for the last stock, we saw some interesting reactions to the earnings. There was little change, with a slight decrease during the session, but not as much as the overall averages fell today.
We look forward to Tesla stock as your third option. I would also like to know your conclusions about the profits, Mike.
看特斯拉股票，我今天早上盯着它看的时候，以为隐含波动率会处在区间顶部，但根本不是。如果变化不大，我们看到的隐含波动率大约在15，这意味着30天隐含波动率有85%的时间比现在更高。
Well, looking at Tesla stock, I assumed this morning, when I was watching it, that the implied volatility would be at the top of its range, but it wasn't at all. We are looking at an implied volatility of around 15, if it does not change much , which means that the 30- day implied volatility is higher 85% of the time.
因此，我最初的想法是在50日均线处卖出看跌期权。我们甚至都还没到50日均线，连靠近都谈不上。你知道，我原本以为，当Meta的股票开始上涨、随后一季度业绩开始下滑时，特斯拉的股票尽管业绩不错，也可能受到影响。
所以我本想卖出隐含波动率，但它太便宜了。因此，我打算采用一种被视为中性隐含波动率的交易，也就是这里的“破翼”模型。
Therefore, my first theory was to sell a put option at the 50-day moving average. We haven't even reached the 50-day moving average, or even come close to it. I thought, as you know, when Meta's stock started to rise, and then the first quarter results started to decline, that Tesla's stock might be affected despite the good numbers it achieved.
So, I was looking to sell implied volatility, but it was too cheap . Therefore, I will adopt what is considered a neutral implied volatility trade , which is the "broken wing " model here.
我原本在等一次短暂反弹，或者回踩到50日均线，但我们没有等到。我认为没必要再追这只股票，尤其是如果市场继续下跌的话。但如果我们跌到那里，我们已经看到过一些不错的高点。我们一直守住50日均线，直到……
让我看看。上周我们在那个位置跌了一点，但股价始终保持在那个水平之上。
I was looking for a temporary bounce, or a pullback to the 50-day moving average, but we didn't get it. I don't think there's a need to pursue this stock, especially if the market continues to decline.
But if we go down there, we've seen some good highs. We kept the 50-day moving average until... let's see. We dropped a little down there last week, but it has stayed above that level the whole time.
所以我认为，凭借不错的业绩，加上市场可能反应过度，这会是一个不错的入场点。我原本在等一笔交易回到362、362.5，还打算看看10月30日到期、行权价377.5、385、390的破翼看涨蝶式期权。
我们应该能以大约0.75美元买入。这样我承担0.75美元的风险，可以赚到5.75美元的利润。这给我的风险回报比是3.29比1。
So I thought that with good numbers and perhaps an overreaction from the market, this would be a good place to enter. I was looking for a deal to get back to 362, 362.5, and I was going to take a look at the Broken Wing Call Fly options on October 30 at 377.5 , 385, 390.
We should be able to buy them for around $0.75. So, I risk $0.75, and I can make a profit of $5.75. This gives me a risk-to-reward ratio of 3.29 to 1.
好，KG。看特斯拉，今天一些过度反应可能转移到了其他股票上，因为我们看到其他已公布财报的股票出现快速下跌。但你在特斯拉的图表上看到了什么？
Okay, KG. Looking at Tesla, perhaps some of the overreaction has shifted to other stocks today, as we are seeing rapid downward movements in other stocks that have reported earnings. But what do you see in Tesla's graph?
是的，我的意思是，如果我们能突破当前所处的这个水平，这张图就表明存在强劲的上升趋势。因此，你会注意到日线图上有一个过去一年反复出现的形态，就是下降通道，记录着更低的高点和更低的低点。
Yes, I mean that this chart indicates a strong upward trend if we can break through this current level that we are experiencing now. Therefore , you will notice in the daily chart a pattern that has been repeated over the past year, which is the presence of descending channels that record lower highs and lower lows .
我们曾短暂尝试突破200日均线上方，但随后继续下跌。这种情况的特别之处在于，我们可能再次触及一个投降式底部，这很可能在7月前后重演。我们看到特斯拉股票遭到大量抛售，随后开始看到大量买家涌入，相对强弱指数（RSI）录得更高的高点和低点。
We briefly tried to break above the 200-day moving average, but we continued to decline. What is distinctive about this situation is the possibility that we will reach a bottom of surrender again, which will likely be repeated around July .
We saw heavy selling of Tesla shares, then we started to see a large influx of buyers, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) recording higher highs and lows.
然后我们回去测试200日均线，但基本上失败了。之后，我们回去测试50日均线，并在那里守住了。接着我们重新测试200日均线，又失败了。现在，我们再次测试200日均线。所以我们真的不希望在这里失败，但这并不代表会下跌。
我认为这只是想在股价大幅上涨之前吸引更多投资者买入这只股票。
Then we went back to test the 200-day moving average, but we largely failed at that . After that, we went back to test the 50-day moving average, and we held there. Then we retested the 200-day moving average, and failed again.
Now, we're testing the 200-day moving average again. So, we really don't want to see a failure here, but this doesn't indicate a decline. I think it's just about trying to attract more investors to buy this stock before its price rises significantly.
现在，相对强弱指数（RSI）开始出现在一个明确的区间内，但开始有点拉伸，这是因为过去两周我们看到的波动。上涨和下跌都相对强劲，但MACD指标正在形成看涨交叉，12周期指数移动平均线位于26周期指数移动平均线上方。
所以，该指标在试图适应这种情况，但我们在年初至今的日线图上正录得更高的低点。
Now , the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is starting to appear in a defined range, but it is beginning to stretch out a little, and this is due to the fluctuations we have seen over the past two weeks.
Both the ups and downs were relatively strong , but the MACD indicator is forming a bullish crossover with the 12-period exponential moving average above the 26-period exponential moving average.
So, the indicator is trying to accommodate this situation, but we are recording higher lows on the year-to-date daily chart.
现在，周线图上的情况变得更加乐观。我们在周线图上正录得更高的低点。我们录得过更低的峰值，但现在形成了一个楔形形态。你甚至可以称之为三角形。我们只知道，我们相对接近价格峰值，这可能出现在今年年底前后，但我们仍位于20日或20周移动平均线上方，同时也在测试50周移动平均线。
Now, the situation becomes more optimistic on the weekly chart. We are recording higher lows on the weekly chart. We have recorded lower peaks, but now we have a wedge-shaped formation .
You could even call it a triangle. All we know is that we are relatively close to the price peak, which may occur around the end of this year, but we are still above the 20- day or 20-week moving average, and we are also testing the 50-week moving average.
价格似乎在试图上涨，而增强我们信心的是，周线图上的MACD指标，即12日指数移动平均线，位于26日指数移动平均线上方，但尚未穿过零线。不过，你可以回顾一下我们在这张图上看到的其他交叉，它们最终对特斯拉都是正面的。
The price appears to be trying to rise, and what increases our confidence is that the MACD indicator on the weekly chart, the 12-day exponential moving average, is above the 26-day exponential moving average , but it has not yet crossed the zero line.
However, you can review the other crossovers we saw on this graph that were ultimately positive for Tesla.
Marley，看起来这只是时间问题，也许是几周，我们就会看到股价要么大幅上涨，要么急剧下跌。如果价格下跌，你会试图跌破295这一水平。如果你看跌，这会让你确信这只股票正在走向下跌。
It seems to be only a matter of time , perhaps weeks, Marley, before we see either a significant rise in the share price or a sharp decline. If the price drops, you will try to break the 295 level.
If you are optimistic about the drop, this will give you the conviction that the stock is on its way to decline.
看特斯拉，在它的财报超出预期、并且出现了一些对其资本支出重新估值的担忧之后，我们的这只股票下跌了大约一个百分点，或者略多一点。
Well, with Tesla here, our stock has dropped by about a percentage, or a little more, after its earnings beat expectations and some concerns arose about a revaluation of its capital spending.
这个频道对 $TSLA 的历次判断
Schwab Network 在这只股票上共 21 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。