相对于其利润率和增长，Tesla 的估值非常昂贵；其盈利一直乏善可陈，唯一令人兴奋的只有与 SpaceX 的合并，但该交易充满不确定性，且因中国、欧洲以及监管和股东审查而极其困难。该公司已很久没有买入 Tesla，并认为 Tesla 正逐渐落后于 SpaceX。

We know that Tesla shares are experiencing some weakness after a quarter that was, objectively, better than expected, but the discussion has already moved beyond margins and deliveries, reaching this potential link between Tesla and SpaceX and their growing ambitions in artificial intelligence.

Tesla's earnings have been basically boring over the past three quarters. The only thing that's really exciting is the merger discussion with SpaceX. And of course, Tesla and SpaceX tell us that they want to become one entity.

As you know, Tesla is currently building much of its artificial intelligence capabilities at SpaceX.

"Optimus" needs a lot of computing power, which SpaceX will provide . Many engineers work between both companies. So, I think this will happen at some point .

The problem is that this merger is very difficult to achieve because of regulatory issues, and because of China. But ultimately, yes, Tesla shareholders are looking forward to that happening.

If you were to take on the role of a shareholder, from the perspective of Tesla shareholders, I would assume this deal would be an all-stock swap, so we are essentially discussing how many SpaceX shares you would want in exchange for your Tesla shares?

In fact, it is SpaceX that will buy Tesla. Because SpaceX is the shining target, and it is the company that is achieving the greatest growth. Tesla, frankly, is trading at a very high valuation compared to what it achieves in terms of margins and growth.

I think that at a valuation of $1.5 trillion, you as a shareholder will get a small premium, but I don't expect it to be a huge premium because the fact that the company is owned by Elon Musk already gives it a premium.

Do you think that adds any risks? Because at the moment, frankly, there are still concerns regarding profit margins. I know there has been an improvement this quarter, but there is still significant spending tied up to their broader ambitions in artificial intelligence.

I think the general theme now is simply concerns about how to actually make a profit from these ambitions. So, does merging these companies weaken the level of execution, or does it really not matter as long as Elon Musk is currently leading both companies ?

Frankly, the employees at SpaceX and Tesla are some of the most dedicated goal-oriented employees, and some of the best engineers we have ever seen.

But the reality, as I said, is that what they are trying to build is extremely difficult, isn't it? There are many issues related to building large-scale computing capabilities and ensuring the safety of fully autonomous driving.

There are many things they need to resolve. But the truth is, let me be clear, it is not a given that this merger will happen, because I think there are three main issues that are problematic.

Firstly, Tesla manufactures approximately half of its cars in China.

So, if they want to merge the two companies, they need to obtain legal and regulatory approval in China, where they manufacture about one million cars. The Chinese will not accept SpaceX as a defense contractor with access to their data.

They even only allowed full self-driving to operate in China because they do not allow data to leave the country. Secondly, we have the Ukraine issue, don't we ? I think Europe will have a problem with Elon Musk at the helm, making on-the-ground decisions regarding Ukraine.

Whether we like it or not, as you know, that's the prevailing impression right now.

Third, you know, there is such a thing as fair business treatment. Therefore, you will face a lot of internal regulatory scrutiny, as well as numerous shareholder lawsuits, which we have already seen with SolarCity.

It took years for that merger to be approved. Therefore, I think people should realize that this integration is extremely difficult to implement. Let's assume it won't happen, or that it won't happen for some time.

At Gerber Kawasaki, do you still consider both companies potential investments, or do you prefer one over the other?

We haven't bought Tesla shares in a long time, although we are still shareholders because we have invested in them for many years and have significant capital gains there.

But right now , once again, it is really difficult to buy shares in either company because the valuations are so high and so expensive. But, you know, once again, SpaceX is much more exciting than Tesla at the moment.

I certainly believe that is true, and this is clearly demonstrated by the moves we have seen this week, with SpaceX making a very good leap yesterday . I know we are lagging behind today, but Tesla seems to be drifting into the background, falling behind the SpaceX story.