TSLA具有建设性：自由现金流为正、削减50亿美元资本支出、robotaxi里程扩大、2027年订阅已售罄（约110亿美元利润）以及人形机器人生产，均支撑其逻辑。技术面上必须守住380这一水平，该水平目前构成2-3个月的阻力；若突破，400很容易达到。
逐段跳播
我参加了一场 Tesla 的财报电话会议。
I was on a Tesla earnings call.
我们有 Tesla，它的自由现金流为正，并减少了计划投入的资本开支，市场正在奖励它。
We have Tesla, which had positive free cash flow and reduced the amount of capital expenditure it plans to spend, and the market is rewarding it.
至于 Tesla，今天非常有意思。我们谈论 380 这个水平已经有一年了。380 过去是一个非常好的支撑位。如你所知，如果你看到 Tesla 的价格在 380 附近，那是一个绝佳的买入时机。
几年过去了。但现在，如果我们把这个水平延伸出去，你会看到。但现在它已经变成了一个阻力位。380 这个水平在过去两三个月里一直是阻力位。我们需要守住这个水平之上。如果我们守住它，我们就能轻松到达 400。这才是关键。
As for Tesla, it was very interesting today. We've been talking about the 380 level for a year now. 380 was a very good support level in the past. As you know, if you saw the price of Tesla at around 380, it was a great time to buy.
Years have passed. But now, if we extend this level, you will see. But now it has become a resistance level. The 380 level has been a resistance level for the past two or three months.
We need to stay above this level. If we stay above it, we will easily reach 400. That is the key.
至于那场财报电话会议，大家都觉得它很差，因为他们抱怨音质、扬声器的音调这类琐碎的事情。那不重要。重要的是信号，而我们得到了 11 个强烈的信号。你可以在我的 Substack 账号里看到它们。
每次财报电话会议后都写一份总结，列出最重要的 alpha 要点。他们每次涨价都能削减 50 亿美元的资本开支，这种能力令人难以置信。但最令人惊讶的是，他们实现了正的现金流；这太惊人了。
他们的出租车每天行驶 9 万英里，每英里收费大约两美元或两块半。他们正处于扩张的起点，并且会很快进入其他城市。再说一次，如果我们能在年底前提供 2,000 辆无人驾驶电动出租车，那将是巨大的成就。
第 15 版就要来了。2027 年的所有超级订阅套餐都已售罄。这将带来 110 亿美元的利润。如果我们把 110 亿美元的利润乘以 100 得到市盈率，就得到 1.1 万亿美元的估值。
4 年前我在 Substack 上写过一篇文章，其中我说仅超级订阅套餐市场的价值估计就有一万亿美元，而现在我们走到了这一步。灾难。这些数字很容易预测。
As for the earnings call, everyone thought it was bad because of their complaints about trivial matters such as sound quality and the tone of the speakers. That does n't matter.
The important thing is the signal, and we got 11 strong signals. You can view them in my Substack account. Write a summary after each earnings call of the most important alpha points.
Their ability to cut capital expenditures by $5 billion every time they raise prices is unbelievable. But what is most surprising is that they have achieved a positive free cash flow; it is amazing.
Their taxis travel 90,000 miles a day , and are paid about two or two and a half dollars per mile. They are at the beginning of their expansion, and will move to other cities very quickly .
Again, if we can provide 2,000 unsupervised electric taxis before the end of the year, that would be a tremendous achievement. Version 15 is coming. All the mega subscription packages for 2027 have sold out.
This will generate $11 billion in profits. If we multiply $11 billion in profits by 100 to get the price-to-earnings ratio, we get a value of $1.1 trillion . I wrote an article on Substack 4 years ago in which I stated that the value of the mega subscription packages market alone is estimated at one trillion dollars, and here we are. disaster. The numbers are easy to predict.
所以，我们需要把股价维持在 380 之上，那很好。也就是说，如果你有勇气在所有这些高点卖出你的备兑看涨期权，那可能会给你带来巨大的利润。这种几小时内的波动，我们来看一天的图表，简直疯狂。
价格在短短几个小时内从 395 跳到 364，然后又回到 389，我的朋友们。难以置信。顺便说一句，这是财报图表。他们无视了它。
So, we need to keep the stock level above 380 , that's great. That is , if you have the courage to sell your covered call options at all these highs, it could bring you huge profits.
This fluctuation within hours, let's take a look at the chart for one day, it's absolutely crazy. The price jumped from 395 to 364 and then back to 389 in just a few hours, my friends.
Unbelievable. This is the earnings chart, by the way. They ignored him.
Tesla 和 SpaceX。我上周说过我们会回到 2.4 以上。现在是 2.54。这意味着你将收到 2.54 或 2.55 股 SpaceX 股票。我这里有 2.56 吗？你知道，那些主持拍卖的人。
我喜欢他们的声音。总之，2.54 股 SpaceX 股票对 Tesla。巨大。如果像昨天视频里描述的那样发生合并，我认为每 1 股 Tesla 我们会得到 3 股 SpaceX。
记住三这个数字，它会在这个区间内。可能是 2.6，也可能是 3.2。简而言之，三股 SpaceX。记住，你投资的是未来。我已经一遍又一遍地解释过合并以及它是如何运作的，但有些人仍然觉得难以理解。
简单地想：你加入了一家只值 2 美元的公司，它被低估了，它的价值会在短时间内，也许一年或更短，涨到 6 美元，也就是 SpaceX。然后你再加上另一家值 1.5 美元的公司，Tesla，它正努力在地球上实现最伟大的成就，比如自动驾驶汽车、人形机器人等等。
太空中的数据中心也将是这一发展的重要组成部分，但这需要数年时间。还要再过两三年才会发生。顺便说一句，Tesla 的人形机器人已经开始生产，他们预计每月生产 20,000 台机器人。
这是非常重要的消息。第三版已经准备好了。它们现在正在被制造，但他们仍然对此非常保密。
Tesla and SpaceX. I said last week that we would return above 2.4. It is now 2.54. This means you will receive 2.54 or 2.55 shares of SpaceX stock . Do I have 2.56? You know, those people who run the auctions.
I love their voices. In any case, 2.54 shares of SpaceX stock versus Tesla. huge. If a merger happens as described in yesterday's video, I think we'll get three SpaceX shares for every Tesla share.
Remember the number three, it will be within that range. It could be 2.6, or 3.2. In short , three shares of SpaceX. Remember, you are investing in the future. I have explained merging and how it works time and time again , yet some people still find it difficult to understand.
Think of it simply: you are adding a company that is only worth $2, which is undervalued , and its value will rise to $6, i.e., SpaceX, in a short time, perhaps a year or less.
And you add to that another company worth $1.5, Tesla, which is striving to achieve the greatest accomplishments on Earth, such as self-driving vehicles, humanoid robots, and more.
Data centers in space will also be an important part of this development, but this will take years. It will take another two or three years before it happens. Incidentally, Tesla's humanoid robot has begun production, and they expect to produce 20,000 robots per month.
This is very important news. The third version is ready. They are being manufactured now, but they are still keeping it very secret.
抱歉讲了这么久 Tesla。一张对 Tesla 和 SpaceX 股票非常重要的图表。
Sorry for talking so long about Tesla. A very important chart for Tesla and SpaceX stock.
顺便说一句，这里有一些技术面的消息。2.55 这个比率可能接近其最高水平。如果销量方面的削减不太糟糕，这可能意味着回到 2.4 或 2.3。
By the way, some technical news is here. The 2.55 ratio may be close to its highest level. If the reductions are not too bad in terms of sales, this could mean a return to 2.4 or 2.3.
总之，顺便说一句。这只股票正重新回到 200 美元上方。它现在的价格是 198 美元。没有什么能阻止这轮上涨。
Anyway , by the way. This stock is heading back above $200. Its price is now $198. Nothing can stop this rise.
这个频道对 $TSLA 的历次判断
InvestAnswers 在这只股票上共 27 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。