Tesla第三季度营收280亿美元不及预期,但自由现金流为正;汽车营收尚未见顶,高油价下需求强劲,未来几个季度对比疲弱的去年同期应会表现不错。若在420附近与SpaceX合并,将低于历史高点500,限制上行空间。
逐段跳播
接下来看 Tesla。本周开盘在358。公司本周公布了财报。股价实际上反应良好。可能存在那种隐性需求来支撑股价。我们稍后会讨论这一点,但公司第三季度的数据已经发布。我的意思是,非常不错。
280亿美元。他们未达到预期,但实现了正的自由现金流。
Moving on to Tesla. The week started at 358. The company announced its earnings this week. Stocks are actually reacting well. There may be that hidden demand to support stocks.
We'll talk about that in a moment, but the company's third-quarter figures have been released. It was, I mean, very good. $28 billion. They missed expectations, but achieved positive free cash flow.
好吧,我们不会深入那些细节,但我认为关于 Tesla 有一点是肯定的:可以说,它的汽车收入现在已经触及天花板。在我看来,情况似乎并非如此。你已经看到,基于高油价,他们的汽车连续两个季度需求非常强劲,而且我认为一些完全自动驾驶项目也开始让更多人熟悉并接受,这是很多人希望自己的车具备的功能。
他们在财报电话会议上详细讨论了这一点。他们还有那些“cybercab”车辆,目前还没有产生多少收入。Elon Musk 说,你会在第二和第三季度,以及明年年底开始更明显地注意到它。
所以,他们在这里受到限制,他们甚至谈到,如果你试图订购一辆这样的 Tesla 汽车,你在一段时间内拿不到车。因此,从汽车收入的角度来看,你在这里是受限的。
Well, we won't go into those details, but I think one thing is for sure about Tesla: its car revenues have now reached their ceiling, so to speak. That doesn't seem to be the case to me.
You've seen two quarters of very strong demand for their cars based on high gasoline prices , and I think some of the fully autonomous driving programs are also starting to gain more familiarity and comfort with people, which is a feature many people want in their cars.
They talked about it at length on the earnings call. They also have those " cybercab" vehicles, which haven't generated much revenue yet. Elon Musk says you'll start to notice it more in the second and third quarters, and towards the end of next year.
So, they are restricted here, and they have even talked about how if you try to order one of these Tesla cars, you won't get it for a while. Thus, you are limited here from the perspective of car revenues.
现在,在接下来的几个季度里,情况会看起来非常好,因为前两个季度从销售角度看相当疲软。我们会看看股价对此如何反应,但他们有与 SpaceX 合并两家公司的潜在交易,许多人认为这会在 Trump 总统任期结束前发生,我认为如果他们打算这么做,那将是明智的。
Now, in the coming quarters, things will look really good because the previous two quarters were rather weak from a sales perspective. We'll see how the stock reacts to that, but they have this potential deal with SpaceX to merge the two companies, and many believe that will happen before the end of President Trump's term, which I think would be wise if they intend to do so.
Tesla 也公布了财报。我们讨论了存在一种隐性需求支撑股价的可能性。我的意思是,Elon Musk 基本上说:“嘿,如果非要这样才能成,我希望它发生。这不完全由我决定。”他大致是这么说的。
股价可能存在看不见的需求,但其上涨也可能存在天花板,因为如果你在考虑买入 Tesla 股票,你会转而去买 SpaceX 股票吗?很难说。420的报价是实际成交价。我不知道从估值角度看是否合理,但420这个水平会很有意思。
不过,它不会高于 Tesla 接近500的历史高点,所以可能会有在顶部附近买入的人反对这次合并。
Tesla also announced its earnings . We discussed the possibility of an invisible demand supporting the stock. I mean , Elon Musk basically said, "Hey, if that's what it takes, I want it to happen.
It's not entirely up to me." That's kind of what he was saying. There may be unseen demand for the stock, but there is also likely a ceiling on its rise, because if you were thinking of buying Tesla stock, would you go and buy SpaceX stock instead?
It's hard to say. The offer of 420 is what was traded. I don't know if it is fair in terms of valuation , but the 420 level will be interesting. However, it will not be above the historic highs approaching 500 for Tesla, so there may be people who entered near the top who will oppose this merger.
观察点
这个频道对 $TSLA 的历次判断
The Investor Channel 在这只股票上共 5 条判断,这里只列相邻的几条。