上周将 TSLA 的评级从持有上调至买入，理由是预期 SpaceX 将以全股票方式合并，溢价可能超过 20%，足以赢得特斯拉股东支持，因为马斯克仅持有 20% 的股份；利润率正迈向 20% 区间，几年后可能超过 30%；产品延期不会改变十年维度的增长。
逐段跳播
尽管特斯拉的业绩超出了预期，其股价却在走弱。他们公布的调整后每股收益为48美分，营收为280亿美元。这些业绩在利润和营收两方面都超出了预期。但具体来看，汽车业务的营收下降了3%。
Tesla's stock is slowing down, even though its results exceeded expectations. So, they posted adjusted earnings of 48 cents per share on revenues of $28 billion . These results exceeded expectations in both profits and revenues.
But in detail, revenues in the automotive sector decreased by 3%.
总体而言，我们认为这份业绩好于预期，原因有几个。毛利率——这是公司真正表现出色的地方，比预期高出170个基点。自由现金流实际上是正的。市场原本预计自由现金流为负，因为他们的资本支出略低于预期。
此外，全自动驾驶订阅量同比增长了67%。这是非常强劲且令人印象深刻的增长。
Overall, we thought the results were better than expected for several reasons. Gross profit margins – this is the area where the company really excelled. An increase of 170 basis points over expectations.
The free cash flow was actually positive. The market was expecting a negative free cash flow figure because their capital expenditures were slightly lower. Also, full self-driving subscriptions grew by 67% year-on-year. This is very strong and impressive growth.
这在一定程度上与围绕特斯拉的叙事和乐观情绪相符，即营收结构将随着时间推移转向利润率高得多的产品和服务，比如全自动驾驶软件的订阅。这是利润率远高于预期的主要原因。
This is somewhat in line with the narrative and optimism surrounding Tesla, which is that the revenue mix will shift over time to products and services with much higher profit margins, such as subscriptions to fully autonomous driving software .
This is a major reason why the margins came in much higher than expected.
总体而言，在财报电话会上，马斯克将今年的资本支出指引从250亿美元下调至约200亿美元。因此，短期内这对自由现金流是利好，但这也意味着他们在2027年的支出很可能会高于原本的水平。
Overall, on the earnings call, Musk lowered capital expenditure guidance from $25 billion this year to about $20 billion. So, in the near term, this is positive for free cash flow, but it also means that their spending will likely be higher in 2027 than it otherwise would have been.
我们认为是这样。事实上，我们认为它略低于20%，而且我们看到其利润率正朝着20%多的水平迈进，未来几年或许会接近30%以上。这确实是由全自动驾驶的强劲增长所驱动的。他们通过每一次新更新持续改进产品。
产品变得更好，对消费者也更有吸引力。因此，我们认为这将是公司从一家本质上低利润率的汽车制造商转型为更偏向软件和服务提供商真正的驱动力。
We believe so. In fact, we believe it came in at slightly less than 20%, and we see their profit margins heading towards the twenties, and perhaps approaching more than 30% over the next few years.
It is really driven by this impressive growth in fully autonomous driving. They continue to improve the product with each new update. The product becomes much better and more attractive to consumers.
Therefore, we believe this will be the real driver for the company's transformation from an inherently low-margin car manufacturer to a more software and services provider.
他们正在人工智能、自动驾驶出租车和“Optimus”机器人上大举投资。我们跟踪特斯拉足够久，知道在时间安排上，马斯克说的任何话都应该打个折扣。他通常会兑现承诺，但很少遵守他最初设定的时间表。
例如，他们上周发布的新“Roadster”，说它会在2028年投产。事实上，如果我们在2030年之前看到这款车，我们会非常意外。他们所有新产品组合都是如此。但长期来看，这不会改变公司的整体增长，也不会改变十年后的营收和利润面貌。
They are investing heavily in artificial intelligence, self- driving taxis, and " Optimus" robots. We've followed Tesla long enough to know that you should take everything Musk says with a grain of salt regarding timing.
He usually keeps his word , but rarely sticks to the initial timetable he sets. For example, the new "roadster " they unveiled last week, they said it would go into production in 2028.
In fact, we would be really surprised if we saw that car before 2030. And that is really the case with all of their new portfolio products. But in the long run, this does not change the company’s overall growth, or what revenues and profits will look like a decade from now .
但我们认为主要驱动力是全自动驾驶。这只股票最大的价值在于其在全球自动驾驶市场中的潜力。他们持续获得批准。我们相信他们大约会在2027年上半年获得欧盟层面的批准。在获得美国交通部批准方面也在取得进展。这会给特斯拉股东创造更大的价值吗？
But we believe the main driver is full autonomous driving. The stock's greatest value lies in its potential for a global autonomous driving market . They continue to obtain approvals.
We believe they will get EU-level approval in approximately the first half of 2027. Progress is also being made towards obtaining approval from the U.S. Department of Transportation .
Does this create greater value for Tesla shareholders?
我们长期以来一直认为，这是埃隆·马斯克计划的一部分，即把他的公司合并成一家名为“Elon Inc.”的大公司，因此我们预计各委员会将建议推进合并。这确实让特斯拉作为一只股票处于特殊位置。
SpaceX是一家更大的公司，规模明显大于特斯拉。因此，他们必须对特斯拉股票提出收购要约。我们假设这将是一次全股票合并，且收益足够丰厚，以确保获得特斯拉股东的多数票。目前，埃隆·马斯克仅持有特斯拉20%的投票权。
而他在SpaceX拥有超过80%的投票权。因此，我们假设SpaceX的批准是有保证的，但实际上还需要获得额外30%特斯拉股东的支持。要做到这一点，SpaceX的报价必须足够有吸引力，具备足够的价格溢价，以保证获得多数特斯拉股东的批准。
We have long believed that this is part of Elon Musk’s plan to merge his companies into one large company called “Elon Inc.”, so we expect the committees to recommend moving forward with the merger.
This really puts Tesla in a special position as a stock. SpaceX is a larger company, significantly larger than Tesla. Therefore, they will have to make an offer for Tesla shares.
We assume it will be an all-share merger, and profitable enough to secure a majority vote from Tesla shareholders. Currently, Elon Musk owns only a 20% voting stake in Tesla. While he owns more than 80% of the voting rights in SpaceX.
Therefore, we assume that SpaceX's approval is guaranteed, but it actually needs to gain the support of an additional 30% of Tesla shareholders. To achieve this, SpaceX's offer must be attractive enough, with a sufficient price premium to guarantee the approval of a majority of Tesla shareholders.
这可能不是我们在许多并购中看到的传统30%收购溢价，但如果溢价在20%以上的区间，我们也不会感到意外。这就是为什么我们上周将该股评级从“持有”上调至“买入”，很大程度上是基于合并预期和所提供的溢价。
It may not be the traditional 30% acquisition premium we see in many mergers, but we wouldn't be surprised if it were in the range of over 20%. This is why we upgraded the stock last week from "hold" to "buy," largely based on merger expectations and the premium offered.
那么，你会如何评价特斯拉？这极其困难。自公司成立以来，分析师们一直为此纠结，但报价必须足够有吸引力，才能说服那些可能持怀疑态度、或认为特斯拉作为独立公司可能更好的股东。
So, how would you rate Tesla? It's extremely difficult. Analysts have always struggled with this since the company's founding, but the offering must be attractive enough to convince shareholders who may be skeptical, or who believe Tesla might be better off as an independent company.
观察点
这个频道对 $TSLA 的历次判断
Schwab Network 在这只股票上共 22 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。