说话者认为特斯拉与 SpaceX 合并将令两家公司大受裨益，称这一组合“绝对杀手级”，并认为更早达成交易更好，因为特斯拉股东将获得更多 SpaceX 股份；他将其表述为基于模型的预测而非确定之事，并称特斯拉过去是故事主角，如今 SpaceX 才是。

would taking a tax hit diversify into Tesla and SpaceX offer better riskreward for retirement knowing how important it is and how one lives.

when I said Tesla would outperform Bitcoin. That was right as well nearly four years ago.

I have 85% of the Tesla retire on bag and have just started SpaceX bag which is around 20% of the shares you calculate when the merger happens this would give me 100% plus a little more of the Tesla or Tyron bag.

So given the price of Tesla today 30% premium you know it would take us to nearly 500 bucks easy way to understand that also the ratio is very important if you have Tesla shares how many SpaceX shares you get given this premium the answer will be about three shares three shares times 160 is 480 but remember SpaceX price is moving the Tesla price is moving everything's a moving target so it's important to consider the ratio as Well,

Tesla 323 shares is also sandbagged.

So, for a $1 million bag by 2032, Tesla, you need that 323 shares approximately. And you can see um yeah this chart is difficult. Tesla only median is 323 shares

If Tesla converts an emerger at 3x, the median required is 215 Tesla shares. What that means is you don't need as many Tesla shares because you're getting a 30% premium on top of your bag. So the retireon amount falls.

Well, that's because of the synergy between Tesla and SpaceX. Again, these are predictions based on models. I do believe the benefit for both SpaceX and for Tesla will be huge if they merge and combine.

That's why you actually the retirement bag for to get to a million bucks is less. It's no longer 300 approximately. It's now 215.

Now if there is a 4x multiple that is you get four shares of SpaceX which I don't believe you will uh for every Tesla share that would fall to only 162 shares.

So imagine you spent the last 3 four years getting to 300 Tesla shares and then you see this it's like oho you're ahead. That's the beauty of sandbagging things as well because it's always good to have a little bit more after for some lifestyle experiences. So fewer shares is better.

And Raa, you have 85% Tesla bag plus 20% space bag SpaceX bag. So you've got 105% of your bags already. So that becomes 688 SpaceX shares at the 2.03 ratio. Easy. That's 105%. Plus a little more.

And also because there's going to be a higher multiple probably around 3x the 30% like three three SpaceX shares for every Tesla share. That'll take you to 955. And at 4x it's 1,229.

We all want Tesla to merge at SpaceX. And in fact, we're better off if it happens earlier than later, as I've covered uh on the earnings call recently as well based my analysis.

If SpaceX runs, this is the danger by the way. If SpaceX runs to the moon real fast, if it goes to 300 bucks, 500 bucks really quickly, then they have a more valuable currency by which to acquire Tesla, and that means you'll get less SpaceX shares.

You still get your value for your SpaceX. That doesn't change, but the earlier it happens, the more SpaceX shares you get. That's the important thing that trips people up all the time, but that's where we are.

Tesla used to be, now SpaceX is, and the combination will be absolutely killer. I invest everything I can. I want exposure to SpaceX because I believe in the vision and I'd like to leave something for my son.

Is borrowing at 4.8% 8% a reasonable way to get exposure or does that leverage risk outweigh it when I'm already 48% in Tesla?

it' be like it would be like [laughter] Tesla buying Uber. They don't need them at all. Uh or Tesla bike Ford or GM. It just doesn't make any sense.