$TSLA · Stock Market Mentor · 2026-10-26
尽管有关于全自动驾驶需求的说法，Stock Market Mentor 并不买入 TSLA，而是用牛市看跌价差押注突破能够守住、TSLA 不会回落至 370 附近；他认为回撤应会吸引买家，高于平均的成交量印证上行和他的交易，而在该位置回落则会使其失效。他表示自己现在完全看不懂 TSLA 在做什么。
逐段跳播
如果他们往特斯拉里投入5亿美元，那么在他们完成建仓之后，这只股票会在一段时间内大幅飙升，随后股价又会回落，因为他们本身就是市场。
If they put 500 million to work in Tesla, the stock would scream for a while after they got their fill, then the stock comes back down because they were the market.
我完全不知道特斯拉现在在做什么，但这就是我当时的交易设定。我见过这只股票涨到这里。我也有一点，嗯，可以说是一点轶事性的证据。我妻子开一辆特斯拉 Model X，带完全自动驾驶，这个功能几乎会让你有点愧疚，因为你只要说要去哪里，然后就可以放松下来，坐在车里让别人替你开。
真的很疯狂。而且它实际上，这不是在给特斯拉吹票。它真的能预判你想去哪里。我们周日大概有一套固定的行程。所以我们上车后，车就会说：“嘿，伙计，你想去这里吗？”“好啊，那就去吧。”
之后它又说：“哦，你想去这里吃早餐吗？”“好啊，那就去吧。”它就是这么告诉你，真的非常非常简单。所以这个轶事性的证据就是，她的三个朋友坐过她的车，她们都打算等自己的汽车租约一到期，就去买带完全自动驾驶的特斯拉。
所以我把这看作潜在需求。这是否意味着我要买这只股票？绝对不是。但这是我会考虑的事情。所以我在观察这只股票是怎么走的。向上走得不错。然后它正好撞上这个供给区，从450一直到大约390多，差不多这样。
你想叫它400也行。但真正的供给区其实就在365附近，就在这上面。所以股价涨到这里。这里原本是非常非常糟糕的支撑，但它曾经是支撑，现在变成了阻力。你会看到这里有一个低点。一个略高一点的低点。
高得不多，但它上来测试150日移动平均线。我心想，好吧，这没问题。但那是150日移动平均线。很多人根本不看这个，但他们确实会看200日移动平均线。所以，我在看这只股票就在这个位置是怎么交易的。
枢轴点就在这里，38856。那是这里的高点。我想是在，我忘了是哪一天了。嗯，我想是1号，10月1号，但后来它跌到这里，1016。没事。没什么。谁在乎那个，因为它几乎触及了这个低点，但当它再次开始上涨时，这就引起了我的注意。
它涨到这里，到150日线。成交量还可以。这里有一个大的抛售日。成交量高于平均水平。然后那并没有造成多大影响。所以现在我说，好吧，如果特斯拉突破200美元，如果它做到了，那我就要参与。
那我想做什么？我在想，好吧，如果它涨到这上面，那我就想买一些看涨期权，因为我认为这波走势是真的。所以，我要买一些看涨期权，然后在股价涨到这里时参与。对吧？错了。这不是我的策略。
我的策略是卖出期权，而不是买入期权。那我怎么做？我说：“好吧，与其押注进一步上涨，也许我会在下面卖出一个牛市看跌价差，押注——你可以说这是押注——押注这个突破能在它站稳的位置守住。
我不知道。但我押注的是，股价不会跌到比如370。它不会跌回这里。所以，我的策略是看这样一只股票。我等待交易设定。我在寻找牛市看跌价差。然后当我看到股价起飞时，那大概率会吸引大量买家，把它推得更高。
我想押注这些买家会把股价推得足够高，以至于它不会回落打到我的，嗯，我的牛市看跌价差。我为什么押注它不会回落？因为我知道这样的走势会留下很多买家。所以，如果股价开始有所回撤，就会有很多买家说：“哦，我得到第二次机会了。
我要买。”这应该能让它保持在这上面。如果没能守住，那好吧，那就是一笔没走出来的交易。我，你知道，我得想办法处理。现在，这是我之前画的东西。这是我的设想，我在这里说，我不知道它会涨还是会跌，但这是我的行动点。
所以，我回头看看这个触发点，现在我就进场了。还有成交量。这个是我在开始这次直播前大约半小时截的图，嗯，在26号，它几乎达到了日均成交量。所以，它的成交量比平均水平高出62%。所以到收盘时，成交量会远高于平均水平。
在我看来，这确认了上涨走势，也实际上确认了我的交易。
I have no idea what Tesla is doing right now, but this was my setup. I've seen the stock run up here. I had a little bit of uh you know, I'll say it little anecdotal evidence, too.
Um my wife drives a Tesla Model X, full self-driving, which is it's you almost feel guilty about it because you just say like where you're going to go and then kick back and just ride in the car while somebody else drives you.
It's really nuts. Um and it actually, this isn't a pump for Tesla. It actually anticipates where you want to go. Um we we kind of have a certain routine of what we do on Sundays.
So we'll get into the car and the car b it just says, "Hey man, you want to go here?" "Sure, we'll do that." Then afterwards, "Oh, you want to go here for breakfast?" "Sure, we'll do that."
It just tells it's really, really easy. And so the anecdotal evidence is three of her friends have ridden in her car and they're all going to buy full self-driving Teslas as soon as their auto leases run out.
And so I look at that as latent demand. Does it mean I'm going to buy the stock? Absolutely not. But it's something that I think about. So I'm watching how this stock ran. Nice move to the upside.
Then it runs right into this area of supply from 450 down to about 390 something like that. You can call it 400 if you want. But this is really where the supply is right around actually like 365 right up here.
And so the stock comes up here. What had been really really crappy support but it was support now turns into resistance. And you'll see a low here. A little bit higher low. Not by much, but it's coming up testing the 150day moving average.
And I'm thinking, okay, that's fine. But that's a 150day moving average. A lot of people don't even look at that, but they do look at the 200 day moving average. So, I'm seeing where this stock traded right here.
The pivot is right here at 38856. That was the high here. I think it was on I forget when it was on. Uh I think it was the 1st, October 1st, but then this came down here to 1016.
Fine. Nothing. Who cares about that because it almost hit this low, but when it starts moving up again, now it gets my attention. It comes up here to the 150. Volume's still okay.
You got one big selling day here. Heavier than average volume. and then that didn't amount to much. So now I'm saying, okay, if Tesla breaks through 200 bucks, if it does that, then I want to be involved.
And so what do I want to do? I'm thinking, okay, if it runs up above here, then I want to buy some calls because I think this move is real. So, I'm going to buy some calls on it and then participate when the stock runs up here.
Right? Wrong. It's not my strategy. My strategy is selling options, not buying them. And so, what do I do? I say, "All right, well, rather than bet on a further move to the upside, maybe what I'll do is sell a bullput spread down here and bet, and you could say it's a bet, bet that this breakout's going to hold wherever it holds.
I don't know. But I'm betting that the stock isn't going to come down to say 370. It's not going to fall back into here. So, my strategy is to look at a stock like this. I'm waiting for the setup.
I'm looking for a bullput spread. And then when I see the stock take off, that's probably going to bring in a lot of buyers and push this higher. I want to bet that those buyers push the stock up high enough to where it's not going to pull back to hit my uh my bullput spread.
And why am I betting that it won't pull back? because I know something like this leaves a lot of buyers behind. And so if and when the stock starts retracing a bit, there's going to be a lot of buyers that say, "Oh, I get the second bite at the apple.
I'm going to buy." And that should keep it above here. And if it doesn't, well, then I've got a trade that's not working out. And I, you know, I I have to figure that out. Now, this is something that I actually drew a while back.
This is my envisioning thing here where I'm saying like I don't know whether it's going to go up or down, but this is my action point. So, I go back and look at this trigger and now I'm in the trade.
Also, volume. Now, I just snapped this uh about half an hour before I started this session um on the uh 26th and it's almost up at daily average volume. And so, it's trading at 62% heavier than average volume.
So, this is going to be well above average volume by the end of the day. In my mind, that confirms the upside move and it actually confirms my trade.
这个频道对 $TSLA 的历次判断
Stock Market Mentor 在这只股票上共 2 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。