$TSLA · InvestAnswers · 2026-10-27
特斯拉的 FSD 飞轮是一条不断拓宽的护城河：累计 FSD 行驶里程达 167 亿英里并呈抛物线式增长，在美国数据上 FSD 目前比人类驾驶员安全约 10 倍，买家仅因 FSD 就选择特斯拉汽车，而竞争对手并未出现。过去的下跌一直是终身买入的机会。
逐段跳播
Tesla 正在大幅上涨，涨了4%。过去七个交易日里，Tesla 已经上涨了60美元。非常、非常大的涨幅。
Tesla making a huge move, up 4%. Tesla has gone up $60 over the last seven trading days. Very, very big move.
这是 Tesla 迎来好消息、并在过去七个交易日里大幅飙升的原因之一：FSD 里程正在呈抛物线式增长。FSD 累计总里程已达167亿英里。
one of the reasons for the good news for Tesla and it really ripping so much over the last seven trading days, FSD miles are going parabolic. The total cumulative FSD miles is 16.7 billion.
我从2019年起就一直用 Tesla FSD。我在它还没成熟之前就买了。我就是那种人。是的。但它是一个飞轮。所以，竞争对手要追赶，就需要拥有数百万辆车的庞大车队。他们需要完全垂直整合。
他们需要完整的空中升级能力。他们需要能够追踪数十亿小时的视频。他们需要处理大量边缘案例。他们还需要一个庞大的 AI 学习中心，从所有这些视频中学习。竞争对手不会来。我认为世界现在认识到了这一点，因为 FSD 不仅表现惊人，人们买车就是因为 FSD，没有别的原因。
I've had I've had Tesla FSD for since 2019. I I bought it before it was even baked. I'm one of those guys. Yeah. Um, but it's a flywheel. So, for a competitor to catch up, they need a huge fleet of millions of cars.
They need full vertical integration. They need full overthe-air updates. They need to be able to track billions of hours of video. Uh they need to track tons of edge cases. And they need a huge AI learning center to learn from all the videos.
The competition are not coming. And I think the world recognizes it now because FSD, not only is it going crazy, people are buying cars because of FSD. no other reason.
但现在，这也是关注 Tesla 的人十年来一直在寻找的关键数字。我们一直在等 FSD 被认为比人类安全10倍的那一天。我们刚刚达到了这个水平，上下差一点点。所以，司机在启用 FSD 时，每次重大碰撞的里程约为600万英里。
而普通司机在每次严重事故之前的里程是66万英里。所以基本上，FSD 现在比美国的人类司机安全10倍，上下差一点点。
But also now, this was the critical number for those who follow Tesla have been looking for for 10 years. We wanted to wait for the time for FSD to be considered 10x safer than a human.
Well, we just hit that give or take a few little tiny amounts. So, the a major the miles per major collision for a driver is about 6 million when on FSD. When you take an average driver before every serious accident, it's 660,000 miles.
So basically FSD is now 10x give or take a tiny fraction safer than a human driver in the United States.
再说一次，司机情况因国家而异。这只是美国的数据。我们现在已经到了这个阶段：你真的可以坐进一辆 cyber cab，它会带你去任何地方。
Again, drivers vary country by country. This is just US data only. And we're at that point right now where literally you can get in a cyber cab and it'll take you everywhere.
四年前的今天，Elon 走进 Twitter 总部，让这件事好好沉淀一下。这有点好笑，但他基本上收购 Twitter 是为了让 Tesla 免费。
Four years ago today, Elon walked into Twitter headquarters and uh let that sink in. It's kind of funny, but he basically acquired Twitter to make Tesla free.
顺便说一句，四年前的今天，你本可以以106美元买入 Tesla。现在是大约48美元。所以基本上，Tesla 在四年里涨了4倍。
And by the way, four years ago today, you could have bought Tesla at $106. Now it's about $48. So basically, Tesla has 4xed in the four years.
人们会说，哦，Tesla 一直没什么进展，等等。是的，如果你几年前可能买在了顶部之类的。没错，但你不该买顶部，你该买底部，你该逢低买入。
And people talk about, oh, Tesla hasn't gone anywhere, etc. Yeah, if you maybe bought the top a few years ago or something. Yes, but you don't buy tops, you buy bottoms, you buy the dips.
所以，只是为了提供一些参照，顺便说一句，Tesla 在2020年3月也曾接近15美元。所以，这些是买入打折资产的绝佳一生一次的机会。
So, just for some perspective, and by the way, Tesla was also close to $15 in March 2020. So, these are great lifetime opportunities to buy things on sale.
顺便说一句，Tesla 在2020年3月也曾接近15美元。所以，这些是买入打折资产的绝佳一生一次的机会。它跌这么多的原因是，人们不喜欢他收购 Twitter，而且他不得不卖掉大量 Tesla 股票来支付 Twitter，因为法院判他必须以440亿美元买下它。这段历史挺有意思的。
and by the way, Tesla was also close to $15 in March 2020. So, these are great lifetime opportunities to buy things on sale. And the reason it fell so much was because people didn't like him buying Twitter and also he had to sell a bunch of Tesla stock to afford Twitter because the courts made him buy it for $44 billion. Great bit of history there.
这个频道对 $TSLA 的历次判断
InvestAnswers 在这只股票上共 34 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。