$TSLA · Wall Street Millennial · 2026-10-28
特斯拉股价被 Optimus 机器人抬高，而该机器人做不了任何有用的事；其估值建立在 AI 与机器人业务之上，而马斯克威胁称，除非获得约 1000 亿美元的新股份，否则将破坏这些业务。若以全股票方式收购 SpaceX，说话者预计每股特斯拉远低于 506 美元，从而稀释现有股东。
逐段跳播
特斯拉的股价被抬高了，原因就是那个荒唐的“Optimus”机器人，它做不了任何有用的事。
Tesla's stock price is inflated because of the ridiculous "Optimus" robot, which can't do anything useful.
他想摧毁特斯拉仅存的公司治理，从而以牺牲小股东为代价中饱私囊。
He wants to destroy what remains of corporate governance at Tesla , thereby enriching himself at the expense of small investors.
这是一份特斯拉的8K文件，披露了埃隆·马斯克2025年巨额薪酬方案。
Here's an 8K document from Tesla revealing Elon Musk's massive 2025 pay package.
如果特斯拉在市值和经营价值上达到某些里程碑，这份方案本会给他购买最多3.04亿股新股的期权。在随后的几年里，特斯拉的交付量、营收、利润和股价都出现了爆发式增长。
This package would have given him options to buy up to 304 million new shares if Tesla achieved certain milestones in market and operating value. Over the following years, Tesla experienced an explosion in deliveries, revenue, profits, and share price.
法官认定，本应保持独立的特斯拉董事会成员实际上对马斯克唯命是从。董事会成员Antonio Gracias是一位风险投资人，他投资了马斯克的私人公司，包括SpaceX、The Boring Company和Neuralink。
他有强烈的动机站在马斯克一边，以维持自己获得这些私人投资机会的渠道。
The judge found that Tesla's board members , who were supposed to be independent, were in fact subservient to Musk. Council Member Antonio Gracias is a venture capitalist who has investments in Musk’s private companies, including SpaceX, The Boring Company, and Neuralink.
He had a strong incentive to stay on Musk’s side to maintain his access to these private investment opportunities.
董事会成员James Murdoch是马斯克的密友。他曾多次与马斯克一家一起度假，去过巴哈马等地。特斯拉的董事长是一位名叫Robin Denholm的女性。作为董事会主席，她以股份形式获得报酬。
她获得的特斯拉股份价值数亿美元。这笔钱改变了Denholm的人生。有理由认为，她个人欠马斯克一份感激之情。
Council member James Murdoch is a close personal friend of Musk. He has taken many vacations with the Musk family in places such as the Bahamas. Tesla's chairwoman is a woman named Robin Denholm.
As chair of the board, she is paid in the form of shares. The Tesla shares she acquired were worth hundreds of millions of dollars. This was a sum of money that changed Denholm's life.
It is fair to assume that she owes Musk a personal debt of gratitude.
法官判定该薪酬方案无效后不久，Denholm发表了如下公开声明：“引述：过去六年里，埃隆·马斯克为特斯拉所做的任何工作都没有获得报酬，而这些工作帮助股东价值实现了大幅增长。在我们以及许多已经向我们表达意见的股东看来，这从根本上是不公平的。引述结束。”
Shortly after the judge invalidated the compensation package, Denholm made the following public statement: "Quote , Elon Musk has not been paid for any of his work for Tesla in the past six years that has helped generate substantial growth in shareholder value.
That seems to us and to many of the shareholders we have already heard from to be fundamentally unfair. End quote."
马斯克在官方文件中自称是特斯拉的创始人，但事实并非如此。真正的创始人是Martin Eberhard和Marc Tarpenning，他们于2003年创立了这家公司。马斯克从2004年开始向特斯拉投入风险投资，并成为公司最大股东。
直到2008年10月，也就是最初的Tesla Roadster开始交付约半年后，他才成为特斯拉的CEO。
Musk refers to himself as the founder of Tesla in official documents, but this is not true. The actual founders are Martin Eberhard and Marc Tarpenning, who founded the company in 2003.
Musk began pouring venture capital investments into Tesla in 2004 and became the company's largest shareholder . He did not become CEO of Tesla until October 2008, about half a year after deliveries of the original Tesla Roadster cars began.
但如果我们看字典上的定义，创始人是指创建了一个组织的人。到马斯克成为CEO时，特斯拉已经建立起来并在销售电动汽车了。不可能去建立一个已经建立起来的组织。因此，埃隆·马斯克不可能是特斯拉的创始人。
But if we look at the dictionary definition, a founder is someone who creates an organization. By the time Musk became CEO, Tesla was already established and selling electric cars.
It is not possible to establish an organization that has already been established. Therefore, Elon Musk cannot be the founder of Tesla.
不过，马斯克在公司早期买下了非常大比例的股份。因此，他在公司中的经济利益与创始人的利益相似。
However, Musk bought a very large percentage of the shares in the company's early days. Thus, his economic interest in the company is similar to the founder's interest.
截至2024年初，马斯克持有特斯拉约13%的流通股。这还不包括被法官判定无效的2018年薪酬方案。2024年1月，马斯克发了一条推文说：“引述：如果没有大约25%的投票权，我不愿意把特斯拉发展成人工智能和机器人领域的领导者。
引述结束。”马斯克本质上是在向特斯拉的小股东勒索钱财。
As of early 2024, Musk owned approximately 13% of Tesla's outstanding shares. This does not include the 2018 pay package, which was invalidated by the judge. In January 2024, Musk posted a tweet saying: " Quote, I am not comfortable growing Tesla to become the leader in AI and robotics without having approximately 25% voting rights.
End quote." Musk was essentially extorting money from Tesla's small shareholders .
特斯拉虚高估值的全部基础，就是它在人工智能和机器人领域的努力。除非特斯拉授予他价值约1000亿美元的新股份，否则他就会破坏公司在这两个领域的努力。
The entire basis for Tesla's inflated valuation is its efforts in the fields of artificial intelligence and robotics. Unless Tesla grants him new shares worth approximately $100 billion, he will undermine the company's efforts in these areas.
他威胁要在特斯拉之外打造产品。明确的含义是，他将在SpaceX内部打造人工智能和机器人产品。值得注意的是，马斯克在将自己控制的多家公司之间的宝贵资产进行转移方面，有着已被证实的过往记录。
He threatened to build products outside of Tesla. The clear implication is that he will build artificial intelligence and robotics products within SpaceX. It is worth noting that Musk has a proven track record of transferring valuable assets between the various companies he controls .
2025年12月，特拉华州最高法院推翻了此前的裁决，从而恢复了2018年薪酬方案。需要指出的是，最高法院并不认同此前裁决的实质内容。特斯拉董事会早已充斥着马斯克的追随者，并不独立。
撤销该裁决最恰当的描述是一种技术性的法律程序。它被驳回，是因为原告未能就2018年薪酬方案提出合理的替代方案。
In December 2025, the Delaware Supreme Court overturned the previous decision, thereby reinstating the 2018 pay package. It is important to note that the Supreme Court did not disagree with the substantive aspects of the previous decision.
Tesla's board of directors was already full of Musk's followers and was not independent. The annulment of the decision can best be described as a technical legal procedure. It was dismissed because the plaintiff failed to propose a reasonable alternative to the 2018 compensation package.
这张图展示了马斯克在特斯拉的持股随时间的变化。截至2020年底，马斯克持有约5亿股。所有这些数字都已根据拆股进行了调整。2021年，马斯克卖出了几百万股。2022年，他卖出了大量股份，主要是为了给收购Twitter融资。
2021年，他在行使此前2012年谈成的薪酬方案时获得了约3800万股。2026年6月，在特拉华州最高法院作出裁决后，他终于有资格获得2018年的巨额薪酬方案。这使他的持股增加到约7亿股。
This graph shows Musk's stakes in Tesla over time. As of the end of 2020, Musk owned approximately 500 million shares. All these figures have been adjusted according to stock splits.
In 2021, Musk sold a few million shares. In 2022, he sold a lot of shares, mostly to finance his acquisition of Twitter. In 2021, he received approximately 38 million shares when he exercised a previous compensation package negotiated in 2012.
In June 2026, he finally became eligible for the massive 2018 compensation package following a Delaware Supreme Court decision. This increased his holdings to approximately 700 million shares.
现在我们来看看马斯克在特斯拉的持股比例随时间的变化。2017年底，他持有特斯拉流通股的20%。到2021年底，这一比例降至17%。在此期间，由于他2012年的薪酬方案到期，他的持股数量实际上增加了。
然而，这被特斯拉稀释性股权融资导致的持股比例稀释所抵消。到2022年底，这一比例降至13%。这是由于他出售股票为收购Twitter融资。一旦他有资格获得2018年薪酬方案，他的持股比例再次升至20%。
Let's now take a look at Musk's ownership percentage in Tesla over time. At the end of 2017, he owned 20% of Tesla's outstanding shares. By the end of 2021, its percentage had decreased to 17%.
His share count actually increased during this period as his 2012 compensation package became due . However, this was offset by a dilution of ownership due to Tesla's dilutive equity capital increases .
By the end of 2022, its percentage had decreased to 13%. This was due to the sale of shares to finance the acquisition of Twitter. Once he became eligible for the 2018 compensation package, his percentage rose again to 20%.
一些媒体文章称马斯克持有特斯拉28%的股份。但这包括了他可能根据新薪酬方案获得的潜在股份。这个新方案所要求的目标尚未实现。因此，我还没有把它纳入图表中。
Some media articles claim that Musk owns 28% of Tesla. But this includes potential shares he may receive under a new compensation package. The objectives required for this new package have not yet been achieved.
Therefore, I haven't included it in the graph yet.
但是，我们很快就会看到，新薪酬方案可能对特斯拉与SpaceX的合并产生影响。
But, as we will soon see, the new compensation package may have implications for the Tesla-SpaceX merger .
几乎可以肯定，SpaceX与特斯拉的合并将是一笔全股票交易。两家公司的股东都将获得合并后实体的股份。预计将是SpaceX收购特斯拉，而不是反过来。这将导致“控制权变更”事件，这可能为马斯克带来巨额收益。
It is almost certain that the SpaceX-Tesla merger will be an all-stock deal . Shareholders of both companies will receive shares in the merged entity. SpaceX is expected to acquire Tesla, not the other way around.
This will lead to a "change of control" event, which could set Musk up for huge gains.
2025年11月，特斯拉授予马斯克可能是他迄今为止最大的薪酬方案。他最多可能获得4.24亿股特斯拉新股。这些股份被分为12个等份，每份的价值基于不同的里程碑。严格来说，这些股份已经发行并存在。
它们被计入特斯拉的完全稀释股份总数。当你看到媒体报道称马斯克持有特斯拉28%的股份时，其中就包括这4.24亿股新股。
In November 2025, Tesla awarded Musk what could become his largest compensation package to date. He could get up to 424 million new shares in Tesla. These shares are divided into 12 equal segments, each worth based on different milestones.
Technically speaking, the shares are issued and already exist. It is included in Tesla's fully diluted share count . When you see media reports indicating that Musk owns 28% of Tesla, that includes these 424 million new shares.
然而，目前尚未达成任何业绩目标。在这些目标达成之前，马斯克不得出售这些股份、以其质押借款或用其投票。因此，实际上，在预期目标实现之前，这些股份并不真正存在。
However, none of the achievement goals have been met yet. Musk is not allowed to sell these shares, borrow against them, or vote with them until those goals are achieved. Therefore, in practical terms, these shares do not truly exist until the desired objectives are achieved.
每一份的目标达成基于市值，范围在2万亿美元至8.5万亿美元之间。这些份额还要求实现运营目标。目前，特斯拉甚至远未达到其中任何一个运营目标。最现实的目标是累计交付2000万辆汽车。
他们已完成大约一半的进度。按照目前的速度，他们可能在未来六年左右实现这一目标。
Each segment has a target achievement based on a market capitalization ranging between $2 trillion and $8.5 trillion. The segments also require achieving operational goals. Currently, Tesla is not even close to reaching any of those operational goals.
The most realistic target is to deliver 20 million cumulative vehicles. They've covered about half the distance towards that. At the current pace, they may achieve this within the next six years or so.
但如果SpaceX收购特斯拉，所有这些运营目标都将变得毫无意义。在发生收购等控制权变更的情况下，运营目标将失效。
But all these operational goals become meaningless if SpaceX acquires Tesla. In the event of a change in control such as an acquisition, the operational objectives become null and void.
马斯克将仅根据合并时芯片的市场价值获得报酬。SpaceX将按一定转换比例用其股份换取每一股特斯拉股票。这将根据SpaceX当日的交易价格具有货币价值。在录制本视频时，特斯拉股价为379美元。
特斯拉有35.3亿股流通股，不包括马斯克未获得的薪酬方案。如果SpaceX对每股出价超过506美元，马斯克薪酬方案的第一批股份将到期。这将增加SpaceX需要购买的股份数量，从而增加对现有股东的稀释。
Musk will be paid for the chips based solely on their market value at the time of the merger. SpaceX will offer a certain conversion ratio of its shares for each Tesla share. This will have a monetary value based on SpaceX's trading price on that day.
At the time of recording this video, Tesla stock was trading at $379. Tesla has 3.53 billion shares outstanding, excluding Musk’s unearned compensation package . If SpaceX offers more than $506 per share, the first tranche of Musk's compensation package will be due .
This will increase the number of shares that SpaceX needs to buy, thereby increasing dilution for existing shareholders.
特斯拉有35.3亿股流通股，不包括马斯克未获得的薪酬方案。如果SpaceX对每股出价超过506美元，马斯克薪酬方案的第一批股份将到期。
Tesla has 3.53 billion shares outstanding, excluding Musk’s unearned compensation package. If SpaceX offers more than $506 per share, the first tranche of Musk's compensation package will be due.
一方面，这对马斯克有利，因为他将获得更多特斯拉股份，这些股份将转换为合并后实体的股份。但另一方面，马斯克在SpaceX的持股比例高于特斯拉。如果排除所有未获得的薪酬方案，马斯克持有约40%的SpaceX股份，而仅持有20%的特斯拉股份。
因此，马斯克受益于SpaceX获得相对于特斯拉更高的估值，因为这使他在合并后实体中拥有更大的份额。
On the one hand, this will benefit Musk because he will get more Tesla shares that will be converted into shares in the merged entity. But on the other hand, Musk owns a larger percentage of SpaceX than Tesla .
If we exclude all unearned compensation packages , Musk owns about 40% of SpaceX shares while owning only 20% of Tesla. Therefore, Musk benefits from SpaceX receiving a higher valuation compared to Tesla, because that gives him a larger stake in the combined entity .
但另一方面，马斯克在SpaceX的持股比例高于特斯拉。如果排除所有未获得的薪酬方案，马斯克持有约40%的SpaceX股份，而仅持有20%的特斯拉股份。
But on the other hand, Musk owns a larger percentage of SpaceX than Tesla. If we exclude all unearned compensation packages, Musk owns about 40% of SpaceX shares while owning only 20% of Tesla.
因此，我预计收购价格将远低于每股特斯拉506美元。
Therefore, I expect the acquisition price to be much lower than $506 per Tesla share.
让我们假设SpaceX为每股特斯拉股票提供2.75股其股票。这将较录制本视频时的特斯拉股价略有溢价。如果马斯克要求特斯拉股东投票赞成，他们几乎肯定会批准这笔交易。
Let's assume SpaceX offers 2.75 shares of its stock for every share of Tesla. This would represent a small premium over Tesla's stock price at the time this video was recorded.
Tesla shareholders would almost certainly approve the deal if Musk asked them to vote in favor.
SpaceX将向现有特斯拉股东发行97亿股新股。请记住，2024年初，一名法官取消了马斯克在特斯拉的薪酬方案，因为薪酬委员会被认为不独立。
SpaceX will issue 9.7 billion new shares to existing Tesla shareholders. Remember that in early 2024, a judge canceled Musk's compensation package at Tesla because the compensation committee was deemed not independent.
Ira Ehrenpresse 和 Antonio Gracias 在2018年薪酬方案谈判期间都担任特斯拉董事会成员。特拉华州的一名法官认定，由于两人与马斯克控制的多家公司存在长期财务往来，他们均缺乏独立性。
Ira Ehrenpresse and Antonio Gracias both served on Tesla's board of directors during the 2018 compensation package negotiations. A judge in Delaware found both men to be lacking in independence due to their long-standing financial ties to various companies controlled by Musk.
马斯克最初将持有特斯拉与SpaceX合并实体约三分之一的股份。
Musk will begin by owning about a third of the combined Tesla and SpaceX entity.