$TSLA · InvestAnswers · 2026-10-30

some of my best investments you know getting into Tesla early holding it you know and then holding it through the last 5 years has been tough you know that where people thought but I think it's going to be coming into that as they Elon they said you know the second wave of growth so but then if you're even smarter you could figure out when to trade out but um that you know requires more sophistication but you know if you just know that something's really really an Amazon and an Apple that that through the rough times you hold through that that by itself is is efficient to get um 10 bagger 100bagger type returns.

it's happening more with SpaceX and Tesla because they have been so ky on their calls on their um earnings calls that they are giving they're spoon feeding less they're they're not giving the for for various reasons under various topics they're not giving the information.

So that means the people who connect the dots, who look at the breadcrumbs, then you have even more advantage because it's happened and it's uh not been um recognized because you didn't, you know, spoon feed it to people.

We're going to go into some modeling. Uh we're going to talk about SpaceX. Then down the line Tesla, Optimus, Cyber Cabs, ramps, price predictions, but we have so much to talk about regarding compute.

when you look at these assets we all know you are a shareholder in Tesla and SpaceX. if you had to pick one of these three issues that you would lose sleep over, what would it be?

Would it be power for gigawatts of compute, robo taxi, or Optimus?

Um, it depend on the the time frame. Um, I definitely I'm utterly confident in number one. Uh, number two, it's it's ramping. I'm feeling very good about that for Q2, Q3, but it could delay, you know, into Q3, Q4, um, easily.

what is your definition, by the way, a serious scale? My, my tipping point was always 2,000 cyber cabs rolling around and we could get there by Christmas, right? Given this given the ramp of 17 to 21% growth every week, right?

Uh for me um really serious scale the stock would move before it but uh really serious scale would be you know 100,000 uh robo taxi uh either u in Tesla's fleet or activated the network.

So 100,000 or more I think is is basically assured takeoff beyond that point you're going to a million you know like going from 1,000 to 10,000 might be slower than 10,000 to 100,000.

So then 100,000 on up, you're basically it's all it's all wonderful at that point. So I I view 100,000 even 100,000 take a long time to get to though. We're talking a year and a half.

If Wall Street sees 2,000 cars rolling around autonomously generating a lot of money, that's enough to give them confidence. Okay, if they can do 2,000, they can do 10,000, which means they can do 100,000,

so in terms of my 100,000 thing is basically where at $50,000 per vehicle you're into the $50 billion range. You know, you've moved the cap the money uh waterfall has is clearly totally there and there's no interpretation at that point. So that's that's why I I love that number.

Um, to your point, when I track things closely, we're at 712 of the 1080 Texas registered in Austin. So, at that density, 23 274 per million people, that means just doing Houston, Dallas, and the Miami cities, we should be at 10,000 because it would um because Houston, Dallas have more people, Miami have more people.

So, um, I I can even at the at the Austin density of registered vehicles, we we to 10,000 and then that I expect to happen January, February of next year.

So, so that would be my analysis of of that. So, I'm um I'm thinking 3,000 um to 5,000 at the end of this year.

and then they'd be crowded out of Dallas and Houston and then crowded out of Miami. What type of impact do you see that having on voters, on people who drive Ubers today, etc.?

Won't there be a big backlash? That's one of the concerns I had going back to risks at the beginning.

if there was going to be backlash, it would happen already at, you know, with um Whimo at at a thousand or something like that. like if they haven't pushed back against Whimo like the um New York or London or wherever other cabbies who push back against Uber and that kind of stuff like that happens earlier.

So then if they've lost that battle to keep out Uber and they haven't reacted to Whimo, then I I'm just seeing why they would react to a thousand Tesla because if it's 1,000 Tesla or thousand Whimo, it's the same to the guys um doing the the driving.

And then the other thing that people fade is Optimus. I heard a whole bunch somebody who is deep in the know has seen Optimus V3 back in July. I heard the things about Vera Rubin and 40% of the supply being locked up by Elon Musk.

I heard they were going to go into scale production for Optimus back in September. They missed that by a few weeks. They also said they would go into scale production of the semi-truck in September.

They actually nailed that and that's happening. So Optimus people still don't believe they'll pull this off.

So yeah. So my belief on Optimus, why I feel assured, why I feel they win at true scale is that um this goes to my factory supply chain and other factors context analysis of something that if you're comparing Optimus to um figure AI version 4 or something like that, right?

The figure one could be better, right? Don't know, right? But um if I want to get to um um a million or 10 million then you need to have the the chips which um SpaceX will make with AI5 and also it's why SpaceX wins on satellites for Starlink.

They have 12,000 is that they own the ecosystem of it. They're the buyer and supplier of it vertically integrated. vertically integrated and also they can as an adopter they have made spent $3 billion $5 billion on a new factory that is um unboxed process.

So they made their factory adapt to it. Mercedes BMW do not change their factory so they can adopt figure bots. So thus um the adoption is everything else in their system is meeting it more than halfway.

They also in the interview with the Monroe live where they said they redesigned all the parts within CyberCab for unboxed so that they have everything modulized. It all snaps together which meant um changing how the wiring work.

That's the 48vt architecture of Cybertruck. And then the HVAC has no refrigerant lines, which all this loose floppy stuff that was in it before they spent billions of dollars redesigning CyberCap, redesigning Cybertruck, creating 40 volt architecture, changing Unbox process.

So they it's not just the money they spent on the bot, but they're spending money on redesigning everything.

It's the Costco adoption of um forklifts. Everything about Costco is I'm redesigning the whole store forklift around a forklift so I can then lift in pallets and I don't move things to shelves.

It's the same process. So then um Costco's five times more efficient, 10 times more efficient revenue per person because they for around the forklift they designed Tesla designed everything around Optimus.

And the other thing is I don't think everyone's talking about the hands the hands are important, right? But it's the chip. So it's like if I reduce the cost the brain if I reduce the cost of the optimus to build material $20,000 $10,000 then the chip could be $5,000 of that chip in memory $5,000 of that.

So the your snack is I'm getting a cracker which is the body of my bot. The caviar is the chip, right? So when I have the chip, I have 100 times the energy and compute of my phone and 10 times to actually maybe like a thousand times more and maybe like 20 times 50 times more than a laptop.

So it changes my edge compute thing. So I view it more about the, you know, the AI chip and what that enables versus just the um the bot replacing a human.

And and and go let's go back to because I think about this a lot and I see all the competitions 100 bot humanoid bot makers in China and the handful in the US and then I I look at Joe Techmire's flyover videos of the 10 million bot factory that he's building and I know how quickly I've watched him put up factories all over the world in like 12 months.

You know this thing is going to be finished in six months and they're not going to let it idle, right? So, so talk to the audience here about how they manage supply chain, how they are ruthless with capital and how you see this scale going beyond 1 million bots out of Fremont.

Right. Right. So, they are again um it's on the supply side to your point about 1 million 10 million bots that is redoing all this supply chain stuff and they're masters of supply chain.

It's why they can build data centers so fast, five months instead of two years or four years is because they mastered supply chain. They mastered supply chain during COVID when all the other car companies had lost production because they couldn't make that. So that is huge to get to 1 million 10 million.

Um prototypes are easy, scale is hard and really big scale is is really hard. So getting to 10,000 bots, you're still in a demo stage. Really getting to a million, 10 million, which is the amount of cars they make, is an entirely different world.

It's like comparing some kind of like, you know, Bugatti supercar thing against, you know, a true car maker.

Um, and then you have to have solve your demand side. So then in the interview with Joe uh with um um Monroe Live, they said that they were changing the the um charging of Cyber Caps so that Optimus could do it and also the um servicing of it.

So again they're changing the the the the facts on the ground, the field of play so that they can utilize again and also they'll do delivery, right? So the boss will come out of the semi-truckss and other vehicles to do deliveries.

That's is not just the passenger side of it like there's Uber and Uber Eats. So they'll um have that as well.

Which all three are massive modes for Tesla. I wouldn't say insurmountable by anyone else, but it will take um China getting um you know a Chinese entrepreneur um going to to unleash the China construction capacity.

So you'll need like Huawei making chips combining with Xpong or Xiaomi or Xiaomi, you know, to to do it. you'll need a conglomerate of of things just like you it takes a bunch of Chinese companies in order to to try and compete on reusable launch.

So they can do it. It'll be years behind um and they have to get to real big scale. Maybe BYD by themselves but um on the AI side they're behind because they they don't have the the data centers and everything else.

Yeah. So, um, and then on on the US side, like $50 billion from figure like it's nothing in them going to 10,000, 100,000. Um, they're just not. If it was Elon 10, 15 years ago, maybe it's a fair fight.

But it's no longer that now. Elon has too much on the go.

Yeah. Yeah. And it's funny because when I look at the figure and I look at their positioning, they're creating a domestic bot, which is actually, I think, riskier if it falls over and falls on your infant or your dog or something, right?

That could be bad. But also, I zone in on the the hands, and it's basically a claw. It's not it's not a a dextrous hand like what Tesla's doing. And I think that's where they're going to miss a big opportunity.

Yeah. Um I think the uh you know not to downplay the opposition um you know not to underestimate them Amazon is saying that they're going to get you know into bot and bot delivery and they have the warehouses and that kind of stuff.

So there is that demand. Um so who does Amazon work with and can they pull it off? So but Elon brings his own Amazon level demand. So he will be able to change things and get and then also the chips like um well am has tranium but you know so again it's it's the full stack and then also doing digital optimist if they get digital optimist they get rockbot tied into that then you have a range of um virtual to physical agents that would then be doing stuff.

So again it's it's um he's hitting all different levels. It's it's a a full press the combination between synergy, vertical integration, AGI super intelligence clashing all at the same time, the chops they have for manufacturing at scale and managing vertical integration, the whole story is bonkers.

And if you just take if anybody out there takes 10 minutes and looks at all the simultaneous construction done by these two entities, it will melt your mind. There is no entity on the planet that's doing 10% of what these guys are building right now. Not 10%.

And it it that melts your head. Anyway, let's get into the modeling because one of the things that I see and I know you see it too is nobody is doing the math correctly around compute.

Okay? And I know I I don't even need to walk you through these numbers. I know you know them cold. But even just taking Deutsche Bank's numbers they you know they believe or was it Bank of America sorry both these banks yeah these are Deutsch Bank numbers um one gigawatt can easily make 50 billion of revenue easy right and even at a conservative 20% margin on that which we know can be an awful lot higher one gawatt of AI compute can make 10 billion a year right that's 20% to 50 billion.

Now when you look at what a utility company does, they make like a fraction of 1% on a gigawatt of compute. So the first question is why don't all the utility companies pivot to AI?

Of course they're not going to do that. Of course they're monopolies. But that's the first part.

But then let's talk about this. And this is what we've learned the breadcrumb over the last couple of weeks. The mini heart. And you've crunched the numbers. I've crunched the numbers.

And you believe the cost of a mini heart is 13 billion which might be a little bit sandbagged.

400 megawatts of power. So it's 40% of a gawatt. It can house 220,000 uh B300s verubins whatever whenever they get them. So the money that this thing can make can actually create a turnaround payback period of just six months not nine months or 12 months like the CFO said on the earnings call not too long ago. walk us through again how bonkers this is.

So everyone else is taking two years uh usually two years or more to make a data center. So this thing is being built in about five, six months. And we know this because when the S1 was coming out, the mini hard had not started construction, right?

So that's like, you know, April, May or something like that. And then Elon saying that it'll be done in November. It'll be done with chips inside 220,000 in November. So you're looking at this five-month time frame, which they already saying, you know, Jensen saying, you guys are amazing doing it in a year for Colossus one and Colossus 2, right?

So they've gone even faster than than the other people are going.

Everyone else like a semi analysis reviewing all of them is saying the goal is to get to a year down from two years but only 20% are down below you know two years. So it's they're way way ahead of everyone else.

The and this is the um second and soon the third of the 220,000 chip um design. Macro harder which you see in the foreground has 220,000 chips in it. They took longer a year to get and suddenly everything started coming together and then Elon put a post out in September saying um macro hard is done macro hard is done in September mini hard is done in November and another one is done in December.

That other one the first thing we heard about was September that we they might get the building. So to have such fast turnarounds on all these things is just I say mindmelting and the $13 billion you know Arch Invest other people analyzing that and then the Deutsch bank.

So on the numbers the six month payback time um coreweave which we've heard a lot about they've said their whole plan is we get a five-year lease um deal with Meta Microsoft and then we charge less because they're anchor tenant and we just do a 20 30% markup on that deal and then they go get financing for it. put in SPV, they try to get paid back in two and a half years.

So the six-month time frame is against two and a half years again from CEOs saying our goal is a two and a half year payback versus this faster payback.

And then construction two years. So that means I build it in in in five months. I pay back in six. In one year I'm all paid back. The other guy had is another year from finishing his building and then two and a half years more, three and a half years later that he gets payback.

So the economics are just ridiculously better for this. And then they're saying maybe 40% less construction cost and then you have less uh yeah on everything.

I took I've got this valuation model originally built for Tesla and I just started plugging in I've got all the lines of business, some of the parts for SpaceX, but I'm just taking two here.

We've heard from the CFO they're going to have an ARR of 100 billion by year end which could include some Starlink etc. Starlink does just over 5 billion a quarter. So call that 21 billion.

And the margins etc are very simple. I've got a 42% profit margin I think on Starlink and the gigawatt of compute I've got 20% profit margin and it could be an awful lot higher.

Just these two alone, 217 bucks is the stock price today. Sandbag to hell at a very conservative PE.

Stock price would go to 856. That's 767 plus 81. And that doesn't include anything else.

And then and then just last night, John Ellishman comes out and he is he has all the top companies, you know, Tesla,

He said Tesla will be very high, too.

Tesla is the least worst stock of my top 200 list I'm looking at. If you take out oil and the 10-year bond, it's the least worst, which means it's holding up pretty well.

We've got we got Elon making blades for turbines because he can't get his hands on turbines. It's like he couldn't get lithium for his batteries. We started building a lithium refinery himself. He just does everything hands-on.

could you imagine a world I'm wondering why it hasn't happened already where Elon or Karp doesn't call Elon and say, "Hey, I need 50 slots for 50 sovereign AIS for 50 Fortune 500 companies."

That's what I see happening next. Is that beyond the realm of possibility?

we haven't even finished space-based data centers or even started Tesla. And it's all related, by the way. You think I remember saying this in Cyber Bulls a few months ago. I think I I horrified Herbert saying you can't talk about just Tesla anymore.

It's Tesla and SpaceX. They're one thing. So, it's great to see the world is coming around. We know the merge is going to happen.