$TSLA · Stock Moe · 2026-11-05
说话者预计特斯拉将被 SpaceX 吞并，并认为这是必然之事；若 SpaceX 收购并与特斯拉合并，将力求保留投票权，从而强化马斯克。
逐段跳播
我认为这家公司会变成 SpaceX。Tesla 会被吞并。我认为这是板上钉钉的事。他在 Tesla 那里放弃了很多投票权。他在 SpaceX 并没有这么做。所以如果 SpaceX 收购 Tesla 并合并，它会很想保住自己的投票权。这会让他变得强大。
I think this company will turn into SpaceX. Tesla will be swallowed up . I think that's a given. He gave up a lot of voting rights there at Tesla. He didn't do it for SpaceX. So if SpaceX buys Tesla and they merge, it will be keen to retain its voting rights. This will make him strong.
这对资金影响不大，而且考虑到刚刚发生的股票解禁，再加上还有一次即将到来，我不认为这只股票现在会回升，而且目前的结果对 SpaceX 不利。
There is little impact on the funds , and I don't see the stock recovering now with the stock unfreezings that have just taken place, in addition to another one coming up, and the results are not in SpaceX's favor at the moment.
所以，把这一切综合起来看，我认为目前的下行压力大于上行压力。就在此刻。我认为情况会改变吗？会。但还不是现在。这对资金影响不大，而且由于分心，总体上是负面影响，但 NASA 可能会被保住。
什么有帮助？什么才真正对 SpaceX 有帮助？白宫已要求将 NASA 的预算削减 23%。但民主党控制的国会保护科学预算。这可能会救他们。好吗？
So, if you put all that together, I think there are more downward pressures than upward pressures at this moment. At this moment. Do I think the situation will change? Yes. But not yet.
There is little impact on funds, and a generally negative impact due to the distraction, but NASA may be saved. What helps? What actually helps SpaceX? The White House has requested a 23% budget cut for NASA.
But the Democratic-controlled Congress protects science budgets. This might save them. Good?
什么才真正造成伤害？传票。他们会就 Musk 的联邦合同传唤他。公共财政资金流经一个可以削减这些资金的委员会。这是可能的。还是我会得出结论，认为对资金影响不大？一只手为 NASA 重新提供资金，另一只手削减国防开支。我们知道这一切都会影响这件事。
What actually causes harm? Witness summonses. They will be summoning Musk regarding his federal contracts. Public treasury funds flow through a board that can reduce them. This is possible .
Or will I conclude that there is little impact on the funds? One hand re-funds NASA, and the other cuts defense spending. We know that all of that affects the matter.
12 月 8 日不是最终日期，也不是最重要的。最重要的日期？我们就把它拿出来讨论吧。大集团。最后一批持续了 180 天，相当于约 8 亿股，是给员工的。这些股票现在可以用了，他们想怎么处理就怎么处理。
第四季度之后，延长的股权活动就开始了。财报后两个交易日，3.52 亿股，2027 年 3 月 18 日。延长集团时间释放。在第一季度业绩之后，同一集团又有一批与财报相关的股票，3.52 亿股，然后就是最大的一批。
Musk 的股票变成自由流通，没有提前释放，没有催化剂，没有例外，64 亿股。啊，这就是那个预定的筹码。这才是我会担心的。
December 8th is not the final date, nor is it the most important. The most important date ? Let's just put it up for discussion. The major group. The final tranche, which lasted for 180 days, is equivalent to approximately 800 million shares for employees.
The shares are now available, and they can do whatever they want with them. After the fourth quarter, the extended equity campaign begins. 352 million shares after two trading days from the report, March 18, 2027.
Extended Group Time Release. Following the first quarter results, another earnings-related tranche for the same group, 352 million shares, then comes the largest tranche. Musk's shares become free-floating, no early release, no catalyst, no exception , 6.4 billion shares.
Ah, this is the intended chip. This is what I will be worried about .
七次开盘并不构成规律，只是几次而已。连续七次，之后每天都上涨。但这并不意味着它会永远持续下去。样本非常小。股数本身就有争议。你知道，不同的人说法不同。筹码更大，价格更低。
Seven stock openings are not a pattern, they are just a few. It was seven times in a row, and every day after that the stock rose. But that doesn't mean it will last forever. A very small sample.
The number of shares itself is disputed. As you know, different people say different things. The chip is bigger and the price is lower.
支出才是真正的故事，而且情况越来越糟。他们花得越来越多，如果继续亏损，就不得不融资，这可能导致稀释股票或增加债务，其中任何一种都可能对股价产生负面影响。而 57 倍的销售额倍数没有留下任何犯错的空间。没有犯错的空间，我们可能会目睹一些事情发生。
Spending is the real story, and it's getting worse. They are spending more and more, and if they continue to lose money, they will have to raise funds, and this may lead to diluting stocks or increasing debt, and any of this may negatively affect the price.
And a 57x sales multiplier leaves no room for error. There is no room for error, and we may witness something happen.
这个频道对 $TSLA 的历次判断
Stock Moe 在这只股票上共 3 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。