$TSLA · The Investor Channel · 2026-11-06
为仅限于少数美国市场的robotaxi而砍掉Cybertruck、Model X和Model S是严重错误；特斯拉在豪华车类别失败，如今只与本田和丰田在同一价格带竞争，而在市盈率超过100的情况下，这并不是你想涉足的领域，同时还丢弃了宝贵的人类驾驶数据。说话者将在租约约一年半到两年到期后不再持有特斯拉；该股收于移动均线下方。
逐段跳播
现在我们来看 Tesla。做好心理准备，我们对它有强烈的看法。该股本周开盘报 406，随后整周下跌。Tesla 股价今天上涨略超 4%，但本周收于 359。
Now we move on to Tesla. Prepare yourselves well, we have strong opinions about it. The stock started the week at 406, then declined throughout the week. Tesla's stock rose slightly more than 4% today, but closed the week at 359.
与此同时，公司正在告别 Cybertruck，这款车在发布时引发了大量媒体关注，在我看来，是在 2019 年底发布时。我认为部分原因在于 Tesla 自身，部分则不在他们的控制范围内，因为新冠疫情和其他因素阻碍了这款卡车的上市。
This comes as the company bids farewell to its Cybertruck, which generated a lot of media buzz when it was announced, and in my opinion, when it was announced in late 2019. I think part of this is down to Tesla, and part of it is out of their control, as the COVID-19 pandemic and other factors hampered the launch of this truck.
Cybertruck 发布时定价不到 4 万美元，续航最高可达 500 英里。众所周知，2023 年 Cybertruck 交付给客户后，其价格翻了一倍多，一辆满配卡车接近 10 万美元。
然而，它的续航达不到 500 英里。事实上，我想大概是 280 英里，或者 100%，你可以获得略高于 300 到 325 英里的续航。
When the Cybertruck was announced, it was priced at less than $40,000, with a range of up to 500 miles. As many know, after the Cybertruck was delivered to customers in 2023, its price more than doubled, reaching nearly $100,000 for a fully equipped truck.
However, its range does not reach 500 miles. In fact, I think maybe 280 miles, or 100%, you could get a range of slightly more than 300 to 325 miles.
我现在拥有其中一辆这样的皮卡，我相信它毫无疑问是我拥有过的最好、最安全的车。事实上，Cybertruck 的问题在于，一旦你开得足够久，感觉就像在开 Model Y，像在开 Toyota Corolla。
它极其廉价。操控、驾驶、车门的重量，一切看起来都很廉价。
I now own one of these pickup trucks, and I believe it is without a doubt the best and safest vehicle I have ever owned. In fact, the problem with the Cybertruck is that once you drive it long enough, it feels like you're driving a Model Y, like a Toyota Corolla.
It's extremely cheap. The control, the driving, the weight of the doors, everything looks cheap.
因此，停产 Cybertruck 以及 Model X 和 Model S 这两款更贵的车——在 Tesla 它们可以卖到 10 万、7 万、8 万，甚至 10 万美元以上——转而生产只被允许在美国极少数市场有限规模运营的自动驾驶出租车，这是一家未能设计出消费者所需平台的汽车制造商的严重错误。
Therefore, the decision to discontinue production of the Cybertruck, as well as the Model X and Model S, two more expensive cars that can cost as much as $100,000, $70,000, $80,000, or even $100,000 or more at Tesla, in favor of self-driving taxis that are only allowed to operate on a limited scale in a very small number of US markets, is a grave mistake by an automaker that has failed to design the platforms that consumers demand.
消费者一直想要一款低价的 Tesla，我们在频道里讨论过这一点，尽管我认为以 299、399 或 499 美元租一辆 Model 3 或 Model Y，已经是美国电动车中最低的价格之一。
但 Tesla 在豪华车类别彻底失败了；一款三排 SUV 和一款与市场上其他车相比不至于完全格格不入的卡车。一款在价格、性能和设计上都完全专门化的车，他们全都失败了。
Consumers have been demanding a low-cost Tesla, which we've discussed here on the channel, although I think renting a Model 3 or Model Y for $299, $399, or $499 is among the lowest possible prices for an electric car in the United States.
But Tesla completely failed in the luxury car category; a three-row SUV and a truck that didn't look completely out of place with the rest of the cars on the market. A car that is completely specialized in terms of price, capabilities and design, they failed at everything.
而现在他们转向了智能出租车，正如你所看到的，这些车出现在旧金山、得克萨斯州奥斯汀、佛罗里达州部分地区、芝加哥、太平洋西北地区部分地区，可能还有纽约，不过我认为他们不会允许很多这类车在纽约街头运营，至少短期内不会。这对特斯拉在汽车领域来说是一次重大失败。
And now they are turning to smart taxis, which, as you can see, are in San Francisco, Austin, Texas, parts of Florida, Chicago, parts of the Pacific Northwest, and possibly New York, although I don't think they will allow many of them to run on the streets there, at least in the near term.
This is a major failure for Tesla in the automotive field.
特斯拉现在只与本田和丰田竞争，也就是同价位的车。这不是你想去竞争的领域，尤其是对特斯拉来说，它的市盈率超过100。
Tesla now only competes with Honda and Toyota, i.e., cars in the same price range. This is not an area where you want to compete, especially if you are Tesla and have a price-to-earnings ratio that exceeds 100.
此外，特斯拉还在推广其售价99美元的全自动驾驶项目。我跟那些从未买过特斯拉的人聊时发现，他们几乎负担不起每月299到499美元的月供，再加上每月99美元的全自动驾驶费用。你知道Cybertruck、Model S和Model X的车主不在意什么吗？
每月多花100美元买全自动驾驶。如果你买得起这个档次的车，就不会在意这笔钱。因此，特斯拉会减少那些负担得起100美元价签的客户数量。
Furthermore, Tesla is promoting its Full Self-Driving program that costs $99. What I talk to people who have never bought a Tesla is that they can barely afford the monthly payments of $299 to $499, plus an additional $99 per month for full self-driving.
Do you know what Cybertruck, Model S, and Model X owners didn't care about? An additional $100 per month for full self-driving. You won't feel this amount if you're able to buy a car of this standard.
Therefore, Tesla will reduce the number of customers who can afford the $100 price tag.
除此之外，从驾驶体验的角度看，你正在丢弃宝贵的人类训练数据。确实，智能出租车会使用人工智能、自我学习以及所有这些不合逻辑的东西。但归根结底，在人工智能领域什么才是有价值的？我们从人类数据中学到了这些，无论是书面文本还是口头语言，以及所有那些类型。它们极其宝贵，而特斯拉正在把它们丢掉。
On top of all that, you are discarding valuable human training data from a driving experience perspective. It is true that smart taxis will use artificial intelligence, self-learning and all these illogical things.
But ultimately, what is valuable in the world of artificial intelligence? We learned that from human data, whether it was written texts or spoken words, and all those types. They are extremely valuable, and they are getting rid of them at Tesla.
我认为这是一个巨大的错误，尽管我原本认为Cybertruck是一款专用车型。它在任何意义上都是商业上的失败。他们在2019年推出时夸大了承诺。他们在新冠疫情、价格上涨、通胀等方面遇到了一些坏运气，所有这些都对它的成功产生了负面影响。但你正在丢掉公司唯一在售的豪华车。
I think this is a huge mistake, although I thought the Cybertruck was a specialized vehicle. It was a commercial failure in every sense of the word. They overstated their promises when they launched it in 2019.
They encountered some bad luck with regard to the COVID-19 pandemic, rising prices, inflation, and all these things that negatively impacted its success. But you are getting rid of the only luxury car the company sells.
所以，当我的特斯拉租约在大约一年半到两年后到期时，我将不再拥有特斯拉。我将不能再开Model Y。我不能再开Model 3。一旦你开过Cybertruck，你会觉得如果别的车撞上你，你会像昆虫一样被压扁。
这是我不希望我的家人有的感受。所以，我回来了，回到梅赛德斯-奔驰。
So when my Tesla car leases expire in about a year and a half to two years, I will no longer own a Tesla. I will no longer be able to drive the Model Y. I can no longer drive a Model 3.
Once you drive a Cybertruck, you feel like you'll be crushed like an insect if another car hits you. This is a feeling I don't want for my family. So, here I am, back at Mercedes-Benz.
现在，埃隆·马斯克无疑处在最前沿，我相信他在得克萨斯州选举上花了25万美元或更多——抱歉，是2.5亿美元。我觉得真正有意思、也许在保守派圈子里没有得到足够媒体报道的是，他们几乎完全失去了权力，他们有一位任期将满的总统，他们遭到了美国选民的强烈耳光，选民断然拒绝了那里发生的一切。
Now, Elon Musk, who is undoubtedly at the forefront, I believe he spent a quarter of a million dollars or more—excuse me, a quarter of a billion dollars—on the Texas election. What I found really interesting, and perhaps not receiving enough media coverage in conservative circles, is that they lost power almost entirely, they had a president at the end of his term, and they received a strong slap in the face from American voters who categorically rejected everything that happened there.
政治很重要，但归根结底，我们看到了大型科技公司如何遭到特朗普政府的攻击。在他2016年到2020年的第一个任期内，这是表现最好的板块之一。事实上，大型科技公司在拜登总统任内遭受了损失，而这次它们与他走得更近了。
她会立即回到讨好民主党的状态。埃隆·马斯克将比任何人都更不得不坚守这条路线，但我认为他会尽力而为。
Politics is important, but ultimately, we saw how major technology companies came under attack from the Trump administration. It was one of the best-performing sectors during his first term from 2016 to 2020.
In fact, Big Tech companies suffered under President Biden, and then got much closer to him this time. She will immediately return to cozying up to the Democrats. Elon Musk will have to stick to this line more than anyone else, but I think he will do his best.
特斯拉股价收于其移动平均线下方。正是因为这个原因，我不建议重仓投资那些收于移动平均线上方或下方的股票。特斯拉已经断断续续地经历了数周的这种波动。
Tesla shares closed below their moving averages. For this reason specifically, I do not recommend investing heavily in stocks that close above or below moving averages. Tesla has experienced this fluctuation intermittently for several weeks.
现在的问题是：特斯拉会与SpaceX达成收购交易吗，这笔交易又将如何收场？
The question now is: Will Tesla make an acquisition deal with SpaceX, and how will this deal end?
这个频道对 $TSLA 的历次判断
The Investor Channel 在这只股票上共 7 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。