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$TSLA

$TSLA · Parkev Tatevosian, CFA · 2026-11-08

AI 摘要 · Parkev Tatevosian, CFA

这不是买入机会:特斯拉是市场上估值最高的股票之一,比SpaceX更被高估,说话者认为这些公司的前景以及达成宏大目标的延迟都无法支撑这样的估值。回避它在2026年迄今奏效,特斯拉下跌23.4%,而风险更低的标普500表现更好。他不预期会出现急剧崩盘或进一步崩盘,因为Elon Musk的忠实追随者可能会因他的话而加仓,但他认为一旦投资者意识到业绩可能不及管理层预期,该股就容易出现抛售潮。

看跌他说的是几个月内
《Interesting News for SpaceX Stock and Tesla Stock Investors》
Parkev Tatevosian, CFA发布 2026-11-08 · 13 段内容
00:00/ —打开原视频

逐段跳播

13 段内容
0:006:13

我们有一条对 Tesla 和 SpaceX 股票投资者来说不太好的消息:选举结果可能对这两家公司都不利,尤其是涉及 SpaceX 可能合并或收购 Tesla 这件事。

We have some unfortunate news for Tesla and SpaceX stock investors, as the election results could be negative for both companies, especially regarding a potential merger or acquisition of Tesla by SpaceX.

我想梳理一下这些细节,以及它们对 SpaceX 和 Tesla 可能意味着什么,还有这对 Elon Musk 领导的这两家公司来说是不是一个买入机会。

I wanted to review those details and what they might mean for SpaceX and Tesla, and whether this is a buying opportunity for the companies led by Elon Musk.

围绕 SpaceX 和 Tesla 的两个最大担忧来源是:建设数据中心面临的监管障碍越来越多;其次,关于 Tesla 与 SpaceX 合并、或者 SpaceX 收购 Tesla 的讨论很多,我也做过几个视频,在视频里说明这样做完全说得通。

The two biggest sources of concern regarding SpaceX and Tesla are the increasing regulatory hurdles to building data centers; Secondly, there has been a lot of discussion about a merger between Tesla and SpaceX or SpaceX acquiring Tesla, and I have made a few videos in which I have shown that doing so makes perfect sense.

Elon Musk 经营着两家市值万亿美元的上市公司,他还有其他利益,以及几家他管理和投资的公司,所以把这两家公司合并起来似乎完全合乎逻辑;这会降低局面的复杂性,缓解一些摩擦,并促进两者之间的合作与团队协作,所以我认为这完全说得通。

Elon Musk runs two trillion-dollar publicly traded companies, and he also has other interests and several companies that he manages and invests in, so merging these two companies seems perfectly logical; It will reduce the complexity of the situation, alleviate some friction, and promote cooperation and teamwork between them, so I think it makes perfect sense.

不过,在民主党掌控下,监管机构可能会让这件事变得更困难,他们通常在允许合并、收购等事项上更为严格,因为这总体上会减少消费者面临的竞争。这会让消费者付出更高成本,同时改善进行这些收购的公司的处境,而数据表明这种说法是有道理的。

However, regulators may make it more difficult under Democratic control, who are typically more restrictive in allowing mergers, acquisitions, and so on, because this generally reduces competition for consumers.

It makes things more expensive for consumers while improving conditions for the companies making those acquisitions, and the data suggests that this has merit.

此外,Elon Musk 在那场选举中投入了数亿美元,所以看到选民投票反对 Tesla、反对 Elon Musk、反对他支持的候选人和主张,就是这一点的证据。

Furthermore, Elon Musk poured hundreds of millions of dollars into that election, so seeing voters vote against Tesla, against Elon Musk, and against the candidates and causes he supported is evidence of that.

Dan Ives 曾是对 Tesla、SpaceX 以及任何与 Elon Musk 相关事物最乐观的人之一,他的排名略低于 Kathy Woods,而后者多年来一直对与 Elon Musk 相关的一切极其乐观。

Dan Ives 的排名比那要低,但他仍然对与 Elon Musk 相关的一切极其乐观。他说他认为 SpaceX 与 Tesla 的合并仍有可能,但要在 2027 年完成这笔交易,他面临的监管路径要艰难得多。

Dan Ives, who was one of the biggest optimists about Tesla, SpaceX and anything related to Elon Musk, was ranked slightly lower than Kathy Woods, who has been extremely optimistic about everything related to Elon Musk for many years now.

Dan Ives was ranked lower than that, but he remains extremely optimistic about everything related to Elon Musk. He says he believes a SpaceX-Tesla merger is still possible, but he faces a much tougher regulatory roadmap to complete the deal in 2027.

我和 Cathy Woods、Dan Ives 的看法有些分歧。我一直在向投资者警示 SpaceX 和 Tesla,认为它们的估值过高,考虑到这两家公司的前景以及实现其宏大目标方面的延迟,这样的估值无法得到合理解释。

Now, I was somewhat at odds with Cathy Woods and Dan Ives. I have been warning investors about SpaceX and Tesla, arguing that their valuations are too high and cannot be justified given the companies' prospects and delays in achieving their ambitious goals.

2026 年迄今为止,避开这两家公司是正确的决定。你在 Tesla 和 SpaceX 上承担了大量风险,而现在你处于亏损状态。

So far in 2026, avoiding these two companies was the right decision. You took a lot of risks with Tesla and SpaceX, and now you are in a losing position.

录制本视频时,Tesla 的股价下跌了 23.4%,而这两家公司比标普 500 中的平均股票风险更高。所以,你本可以通过投资标普 500 获得更好的回报,同时承担更小的风险。

Tesla's stock was down 23.4% at the time of this video's recording, and these two companies are riskier than the average stock in the S&P 500. So you could have done better by investing in the S&P 500 while taking on less risk.

我不认为这些是买入机会。我认为这两只股票是市场上估值最高的股票之一,而在我看来,Tesla 的估值比 SpaceX 更高。因此,我不认为这是一个买入机会。

I don't think these are buying opportunities. I believe these two stocks are among the most overvalued in the market, and Tesla is more overvalued than SpaceX in my opinion. Therefore, I do not see this as a buying opportunity.

我认为这是一种泡沫可能破裂的情形,不过我不认为真的会这样。我不认为 Tesla 和 SpaceX 的股价会大幅下跌或崩盘,因为我再次认为,Elon Musk 的许多追随者忠心耿耿、对他所说的一切都深信不疑,这意味着他可以在几天内发布一个公告,忠实的追随者就会照他说的去做,掏出数千美元,也许还会买入更多 Tesla 或 SpaceX 股票。

I see this as a possible situation where the bubble might burst, although I don't think that will be the case. I don't think there will be a sharp drop or collapse in Tesla and SpaceX shares, because I believe again that the loyal following of many of Elon Musk's followers, and taking his word for everything he says, means that he can make an announcement in a few days, and the loyal followers will follow what he says and pay thousands of dollars and maybe buy more Tesla or SpaceX shares.

所以我不认为这些股票会进一步崩盘,但我就是觉得它们估值过高,每当投资者意识到这些公司可能无法实现其管理团队所期望的业绩时,就容易出现这样的抛售潮。

So I don't think these stocks will collapse any further, but I simply feel they are overvalued and prone to such waves of selling whenever investors realize that these companies may not deliver the results their management teams expect.

这个频道对 $TSLA 的历次判断

Parkev Tatevosian, CFA 在这只股票上共 8 条判断,这里只列相邻的几条。

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