$TSLA · InvestAnswers · 2026-11-08

I already hold 50% plus Tesla and I'm currently around 25% Bitcoin Microg IBIT and 10% SOL with the rest being other IA13 names. So you're about 25% IA13 and uh 50% Tesla.

Nvidia 30%, Broadcom 64%, TSM 94%, Micron 57%, AMD 29%, Marvel 56%, ALAB 94%, ASML 115%, Google 61%, Tesla just 24.15%, Palanteer 188%.

I said Tesla would perform better than Bitcoin. Slam my fist on the table. At the time Tesla was about 160 bucks and the Bitcoin price was actually where it is right now.

If you have $100 to invest and you're 55, you're 53% right now in Muskled companies. It's kind of high. And if something bad happens to muscle companies, if imagine they fall by 30%.

Your portfolio falls to 83 bucks. So you lose 1650 of your $100 being exposed. That is the danger of uh high conviction bets. But if you look at Ron Baron, he's all in on SpaceX and Tesla.

All in. And he's also made a fortune on SpaceX and Tesla. So it's risky. Uh traditional investors will say don't do it. It's very risky. I think 55% could be your limit. Maybe just get 2% more SpaceX or rotate a little bit if you can taxfree Tesla to SpaceX, what whatever you feel.

Sorry, but another merger question and one that I'm trying to make logical decision and that could change my life with a 3:1 Tesla SpaceX trade right now. Does it make sense to pull the trigger and trade my retire Tesla bag for basically 1,000 SpaceX shares?

So you got about 330 um call it Tesla shares that would give you a thousand SpaceX.

I see that SpaceX could possibly go to 600 and 800 next year. Yes, 600 is a target that many people are talking about. Not just Wall Street, but Brian Wang on the friend of the show.

And if they ex execute and get to 300 billion AR in revenue, that 600 target is very easy, especially if it's high margin revenue. It would be bonkers. uh plus a 30% premium puts it around $800.

Also, would that not be a one:1 at the merger and we lose out on a 3:1 exchange?

So again, I've never ever had so many questions regarding one thing in all my life as this merger. And we don't know where anything is going to go, but we can model it out. So, I put this together for Brian actually on Friday's video or Thursday's video.

And basically Tesla standalone 2030 should get to a $10 trillion market cap because cyber cabs are bonkers.

Tesla will be a 6.6x if it's standalone. So this in this situation, if there is no merger, and I'll explain this again because people get tripped up all the time. If there's no merger, you're better off holding SpaceX at getting in at the current price 136.

If the price of SpaceX goes to 145, there is like a break even between owning Tesla or SpaceX.

Now the merged entity what'll happen because of synergy if you have a $10 trillion market cap and a $15 trillion market cap you get a combo of 25 trillion or a lot more given the merger and that would be a $990 merge per share with a $25 trillion markup. That's the combination.

Anyhow, I'm back and they're outside. Um, so the combo, if they do merge, you get a 7.3x return for SpaceX holders and you get more return if you're a Tesla shareholder because the premium kicker.

That's the difference. If you are in a taxable account and you have Tesla at a low cost basis like many people do in the community, hold. If you can trade tax-free, then pair trade, but do not incur taxes for this.

The other thing as well that people always get tripped up on is the share dilution impact. Be careful of companies that dilute a lot. It's like a secret thief that rips it out of your back pocket.

You got companies like Micro Strategy that sell shares to buy Bitcoin. If they're doing it at a premium, it makes completely sense. Complete sense. That was a thesis since the very beginning of September 2020.

But if they're just diluting to invest in capex, etc., you just get hammered. So if you have a company with 100 shares and they increase the number of shares to 110 shares, your share is worth 9% less.

So make sure you understand that te SpaceX has already allocated a number of shares to acquire Tesla. That's the foregone conclusion and that will cause a lot of dilution as well.

But the combined entity is worth more. That's the combined say 25 trillion by 2030. That's the key.

And the other thing too if you look at it remember the share price and I hope this is all going to make sense and I hope I don't have to answer this again. The share price equals the equity market value, the market cap, divided by the shares outstanding.

That's it. And in standalone scenarios, you got 10 trillion for Tesla, 15 trillion for SpaceX. It could be a lot higher. But that's how the price works out.

The other thing, if you are clever and you I share this chart every Wednesday, Tesla SpaceX pair chart on the optimized trend, easy peasy to read on the ATR and the optimized trend model.

Basically, if it's orange, you buy SpaceX. If it's blue, you buy a Bitcoin. And guess what? For ages, we saw the uh range here. Let me call out these numbers. Got to zoom in a little bit.

We're down at 2.15 SpaceX shares per Tesla. And that was October 7th. And then by November 1st, it shot to 2.97. So, that's a huge swing in a couple of weeks. But now the trend has turned.

And I did say in last Wednesday's video that it's looking very toppy at 2.97. That's the time to rotate. And here we are.

So, the net is use this as a simple guide. If you if you have to allocate if if you're DCAing and you're not 55% of your portfolio is in Musk Industries, but buy SpaceX under 140, under 135, under 130, 126, whatever, that's the better value or Tesla under 350 because of the premium kicker that will hit that'll be 30%. It could even be higher.

Sigd if you're over 45 and have been here before um by the dip I am a user of Starlink and Grockbot dollar makers patiently waiting for the phone and Grockbot coming to an operating system thoughts yeah absolutely buy the dip I did twice in the last 24 hours the markets were opened uh I had a limit order by the way I completely forgot about it in an account for SpaceX and that filled at 125 Um, it was sitting there since I think I don't know four or five months or four months since August if I'm not mistaken and it got filled and then I bought again too.

So, um, SpaceX is a very it's it's a very interesting company like nothing I've ever seen. We we are seeing ju just as a little side note here we're seeing things change very fast all driven by AI.

Okay. Biggest fastest growing company in the history of world is anthropic. out of nowhere in four or five years. Boom. How did that happen? AI. And then we have the next biggest company in the world with incredible moes.

By the way, Anthropic has no moat. As far as I'm concerned, the weights of the model can fit on a thumb drive. But SpaceX has an incredible moat and a 10-year head start. Not only in how they build data centers, but also what they do with their Starship and so much more.

Global comms. I mean, if they start going after DTOC, direct to sell, that's another $5 trillion total addressable market they can go after and attack and destroy everybody else.

So, it's funny. The telos's um AT&T, Verizon, T-Mobile, were all like, "Oh, Elon, he doesn't have a chance. He doesn't can't build the infrastructure. He can't threaten us." A day later, they all fire non-compete or they start lobbying against non-compete suits.

It's all it's all nonsense out there. Yeah, Sigdev, go get some. Again, it could be a bumpy ride, just like a takeoff into orbit, but once you get into orbit, you'll be very happy. Heaven forbid nothing bad happens, of course.

Um, do we still hold the 380 leaps? Yes, remember Tesla, by the way, up until what happened. Let's go. Tesla, just for perspective, uh like it was at $410. Hold on. Just make sure I get the exact number right.

Tesla was at $418 six days ago. All right. So remember this is just a little temporary aberration and uh fingers crossed governments remain completely useless and get nothing done then everything will be fine.

If they create this new fashion government that is designed to destroy the genius of our time and the number one creator on the planet that would be sad but fingers crossed not everybody is like Prof.