台积电应会交出良好、强劲的业绩数据，但其股价走势将跟随市场对AI与芯片的普遍紧张情绪；利润率表现良好，尽管前方存在利润率压力和价格战，但从60%以上起步意味着即便下滑仍有空间，业务依然稳健；其优势在于近乎垄断的独特性。
逐段跳播
是时候深入看看TSMC，也就是台积电，以及它即将发布的财报。这是我们的技术关注重点。这个名字周围有大量兴奋情绪；他们总能让我们一窥芯片需求的情况，而且看起来总是好得惊人，为整个芯片行业定下基调。
It's time to delve into TSMC, the Taiwan Semiconductor Company , and its upcoming earnings report. This is our technical focus. There is a lot of excitement surrounding this name; they always give us glimpses into chip demand, and it always seems to be astronomically good, setting the tone for the rest of the chip industry.
我们凭什么认为，他们下次给出的细节里可能会出现不一样的东西？我不认为我们会在细节中看到任何意外。我认为我们从这份财报中看到的走势，更多会与更广泛市场的动向有关，而且我们一整天都有证据，从亚洲开始，人们已经对AI交易变得非常紧张，尤其是芯片。
Why should we think that something different might come out of the details they will give us next time? I do n't think we'll see any surprises in the details. I think the movement we'll see from these earnings will have more to do with what's happening in the wider market, and we've had evidence throughout the day, starting in Asia, that people have become very nervous about AI trading , especially chips.
那么，对于台积电，当你考虑共识预期中的确切数字时，你预计它的每股收益是会超出还是达到，营收是会超出还是达到？
So , for Taiwan Semiconductor Company, when you consider the exact figures in the consensus estimates, do you expect it to exceed or meet the earnings per share figures and exceed or meet the revenue figures?
我不认为我们会看到重大失手。你知道，我们知道月度数据，它们加总起来构成了一个非常好的财季。我们还因为他们的所有客户以及他们提供的指引而获得了很多洞察，对吧？所以，我认为我们会看到良好、强劲的数字，就像我们一直看到的那样。我只是不知道这会对股价产生什么影响。
I don't think we'll see a major failure. You know, we know the monthly figures, and they add up to form a very good financial quarter. We also get a lot of insights because of all their customers and the guidance they provide , don't we ?
So, I think we'll see good, strong numbers, as we always do. Um, I just don't know what impact that will have on the stock.
或者，当你谈到对期权市场可能看到的情况的预期时，期权市场定价的5%，或者说，你预计这只股票会有波动吗？我认为波动会跟随大盘。这是市场上最稳定的名字之一，即便在半导体和芯片板块内也是如此。
Or, when you talk about expectations for what we might see in the options market, the options market price of 5%, or, do you expect volatility in this stock? I think volatility will follow the broader market.
This is one of the most stable names in the market, even within the semiconductor and chip sector.
这是每个人都需要的东西，不是吗？每个人都在用TSM，所以目前谁赢谁输其实并不重要。他们都会继续是TSM的客户。
This is something everyone needs , isn't it? Everyone is using TSM, so it doesn't really matter who is winning or losing at the moment . They will all remain customers of TSM.
他们给出的指引是营业利润率在56%到58%之间，毛利率在65%到67%之间。你怎么看这些数字，它们与其他公司相比如何？
They provided guidance with operating margins between 56% and 58%, and gross margins between 65% and 67%. What do you think of these figures and how do they compare to others?
这些利润率不错。随着时间推移，芯片板块会有更多利润率压力，以及某种逐底竞争，但当你从60%以上的水平起步时，你有充足的下行空间，同时还能维持非常稳健的业务。所以，我不太担心这一点。
I mean, they're good margins. Over time there will be more margin pressure and a kind of race to the bottom in the chip sector, but when you start from levels above 60%, you have plenty of room to go down while maintaining a very sound business. So, I'm not too worried about that.
有没有什么是你特别想从公司那里听到的？你知道，这可能与市场大多数人的看法不同，但我想听到一些现实。我想听到他们谈论这样一个事实：我们正看到一场寻找减少token使用、降低成本的方法的竞赛，以及在这种环境下我们仍将如何盈利，而不是只承诺压倒性的成功，并指望人们继续买入。
Is there anything you would specifically like to hear from the company? You know, this may be a departure from the views of most of the market, but I want to hear some realism.
I want to hear them talk about the fact that we are seeing a race to find ways to reduce token usage and lower costs, and how we will still make profits in this environment, rather than just promising overwhelming success and hoping that people will continue to buy.
最后但同样重要的是，当我们考虑他们的工作时，你认为这项工作中最强的部分在哪里？
Last but not least, as we consider their work, umm, where do you think the strongest part of the work is?
我认为这项工作中最强的部分在于他们如此独特。他们更接近一种自然垄断。几乎没有其他公司有这个规模。没有其他这个规模的公司做和他们完全一样的事，而这是人工智能领域其他任何公司都无法说的。所以我认为这一点极其重要，是一个巨大的区别点。
I think the strongest part of the work is the fact that they are so unique. They are closer to a natural monopoly . There is hardly anyone else of this size. No one else of this size does exactly what they do, and that's something no one else in the field of artificial intelligence can say.
So I think this is extremely important and a huge point of distinction.