TSMC 是核心持仓，今年表现极为出色；2026 年第三季度营收超出指引上限，达 467 亿，受先进制程与 HPC 推动，HPC 占营收 68%。公司产能受限，资本开支 600–640 亿，未来两年的增长空间看起来完全打开，因此其涨势尚未结束。
逐段跳播
所以，在台积电（TSMC）2026年第三季度财报之后，我们本来打算做一次相当简短的更新，但这次要讲的内容很多。
So we have a lot to cover in what was supposed to be a pretty quick update after Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, TSMC, Q3 2026 earnings.
各方都认为，台积电这一年表现非常出色，过去12个月上涨了40%，年初至今至少涨了约30%，这是财报发布后不久的数据。对于一家市值超过2万亿美元的公司来说，这是相当惊人的回报。它是核心持仓，不需要太多照看，所以非常棒。这一点无可争辩。
Taiwan Semi Manufacturing has had a fantastic year by all accounts, up 40% in the last 12 months, roughly up 30% year to date, at least, immediately after the report. For a company $2 trillion plus market cap, that is a pretty epic return.
It's a core holding. Not something that needs a lot of babysitting, so pretty fantastic. Can't argue with that.
当然，这家公司就处在最底层。它是全球最大的半导体制造代工企业，生产世界上最先进的芯片。这个类别就在最底层，即制造层，它不仅对台湾本地及周边的供应链，而且对全世界的供应链都拥有巨大的控制力，并正在美国、日本、欧洲扩张。非常了不起。
And of course, the company does sit there at the bottom. The largest semiconductor manufacturer foundry business manufacturing the most advanced chips in the world. That category down at the bottom, the manufacturing layer, and a vast wielder of control over not just the supply chain in and around Taiwan, but all over the world, expanding in the US, in Japan, in Europe. Pretty great stuff.
还有来自Fiscal AI拆解这份季度财报的几点说明。营收增长超过了他们几个月前给出的指引上限，达到467亿美元，毛利率和营业利润率分别为66%和58.7%，这得益于七纳米及以下制程节点。
近80%的晶圆总收入来自这些最先进的制程。当然，HPC，即高性能计算、数据中心，以及用于数据中心和其他企业计算的企业级计算半导体，环比增长了22%，占收入的68%，接近70%。
然后我们已经得到了关于资本支出指引的更新，现在预计仅今年一年就将达到600亿至640亿美元。
And a couple of notes from Fiscal AI breaking down the quarterly earnings. Revenue growth exceeded the high end of guidance that they provided a few months ago, 46.7 billion, gross margin and operating margin at 66% and 58.7% respectively, driven by seven nanometer and below manufacturing nodes.
Nearly 80% of total wafer revenue from those most advanced processes. And of course, HPC, high-performance computing, data center, and other enterprise compute semiconductors used in data centers and other enterprise compute up 22% sequentially quarter over quarter and 68% of revenue, nearly 70% of revenue.
And then we did get that update already on their capital expenditure guidance now expected to be 60 to 64 billion this year alone.
由于高性能计算领域的巨大增长，这与上个十年帮助台积电崭露头角的智能手机收入不同，当时苹果是它的主要客户。如今台积电为了支持这部分HPC收入，正在进行大量先进封装。管理层在财报电话会议上谈到了这一点。
目前正在发生一场重大转变，从简单的聊天机器人和为简单聊天机器人训练大型AI模型，转向如今用于智能体AI和助手的AI模型。所以他们的客户正在拉动大量需求。
Because of this massive growth in high-performance compute, it's different from smartphone revenue that helped put TSMC on the map last decade with Apple as its lead customer. There's a lot of advanced packaging going on at TSMC these days in support of that HPC revenue.
And so management talked about this on the earnings call. A big transition underway from simple chatbots and training large AI models for simple chatbots to now AI models used in agentic AI and assistants.
So a lot of demand being pulled in by their customers.
他们的产能受限，所以仍在努力追赶需求。但他们是以能产生非常非常可观的投资回报和净资产回报的方式来做这件事。不过，他们将加快在亚利桑那州第二座晶圆厂的开工。他们正在评估可能在德克萨斯州扩张，那是另一个大型半导体制造中心。
然后就是我刚才提到的先进封装。他们是高端封装的领导者，拥有广泛的合作伙伴网络，包括GlobalFoundries这样的公司，以帮助增加先进封装的供应，这些封装是许多高性能和AI数据中心计算所需要的，不仅是两纳米以及如今进入埃米时代的A14路线图的前道工艺，还有先进封装。
They're capacity constrained, and so they are still trying to catch up to demand. But doing so in a way that generates really, really positive returns on investment, returns on equity.
But they are going to be accelerating the opening of their second fab in Arizona. They're evaluating potentially expanding in Texas, another big semiconductor manufacturing hub.
And then there is that advanced packaging I just mentioned. They are the leader in high-end packaging and have an extensive partner network, including companies like GlobalFoundries, to help increase supply for advanced packaging needed for a lot of this high performance and AI data center compute, not just the two nanometer and now in the Angstrom era, the A14 roadmap for the front-end processes, but also that advanced packaging.
我最后又拿了一页幻灯片，来给台积电这份财报收个尾。昨天我们在ASML那里也再次看到，一些非常长期的举措正在推进，以提高高数值孔径EUV所用大尺寸光掩模的采用率。这大概要到2030年之后才会见效，也许要到2030年代中后期，但相关开发正在进行，台积电资金雄厚，继续用这些现金来确保自己在半导体制造领域保持领先地位。
他们还宣布扩大了与Sony Semiconductor的协议。可以看看我们今年早些时候和Bob Ma做的关于Sony Semiconductor和CMOS图像传感器的视频。所以台积电有很多非常了不起的事情在进行，如果你是台积电的股东，有很多值得高兴和满意的地方。
我们当然非常满意，而且对这些结果也并不感到意外。未来两年的增长跑道看起来相当笔直、开阔。
And I just grabbed one last slide here to round out the TSMC earnings report. We also had this yesterday again with ASML, some really long-term initiatives underway to increase adoption of large format photomasks for high NA EUV.
This is something that would probably not kick in until after 2030, perhaps well into the 2030s, but the development underway there, TSMC has deep pockets continuing to use that cash to make sure it remains a leader in semiconductor manufacturing.
They also announced expanded agreements with Sony Semiconductor. Check out the video we did on Sony Semiconductor and CMOS image sensors with Bob Ma earlier this year. So a lot of really great stuff going on at TSMC, a lot to be happy and pleased with if you were a TSMC shareholder.
We are most certainly more than happy and also not surprised by these results. The runway of growth for the next two years appears to be pretty straight and wide open.
所以这并不意味着台积电、ASML以及半导体和AI牛市其他领导者的这轮精彩涨势就此结束。
So it doesn't mean an end of this fantastic run for TSMC, for ASML, and the other leaders in the semiconductor and AI bull market.