TSM 在抛售中下跌 14%，市盈率约为明年预期盈利的 18 倍，是极佳的机会；下季度营收指引约 533 亿美元，同比增长 58%，且增长将加快至 2029 年；较低的利润率和沉重的资本开支，是成为 AI 时代最重要芯片制造商的代价。
逐段跳播
当华尔街专注于大规模抛售时，两家最大的AI公司——台积电和ASML——悄然公布了财报。因此，它了解AI公司的长期需求。
While Wall Street is focused on heavy selling, two of the biggest AI companies, TSMC and ASML, quietly announced their earnings. Therefore, it understands the long-term needs of AI companies .
台积电是ASML最大的客户。一天后，台积电超出了预期，宣布下一季度营收将同比增长约58%，且没有放缓的迹象。
TSMC is ASML's largest customer . One day later, TSMC exceeded its expectations, announcing that revenue for the next quarter would rise by approximately 58% compared to last year, with no signs of slowing down.
那么，让我们从台积电（TSMC）开始，它是该领域的一个重要指标。台积电最近公布了财报，告诉投资者它预计下一季度营收约为533亿美元。
Let's start then with Taiwan Semiconductor Company (TSMC), which is an important indicator in this field. TSMC recently announced its earnings, telling investors that it expects revenues of approximately $53.3 billion in the next quarter.
这代表着58%的同比增长，对于一家市值约2万亿美元的公司来说，这是一个巨大的数字。在电话会议上，台积电CEO表示，他们很可能在2029年之前看到更快的增长。
This represents a 58% year-over-year increase, a huge number for a company with a market capitalization of around $2 trillion. During the call, the CEO of TSMC said they will likely see faster growth through 2029.
值得注意的是，台积电是两家预计未来人工智能需求将增加的公司之一。
It is worth noting that TSMC is one of two companies that anticipate increased demand for artificial intelligence in the future.
现在，客户在预定日期前两到三年就联系台积电。因此，他们还预计2026年的资本支出约为620亿美元，比去年增加约50%，并表示到2028年将支出更多。
Now, customers contact TSMC two or three years before the scheduled date. For this reason, they also expect to spend about $62 billion on capital expenditures for 2026, an increase of approximately 50% from last year, and say they will spend much more through 2028.
此外，台积电的毛利率从67.7%降至66.4%，因为他们继续扩大新的2纳米芯片制造业务，并且他们预计下一季度利润率将进一步小幅下降。
Furthermore, TSMC's gross profit margin fell from 67.7% to 66.4% as they continue to ramp up their new 2nm chip manufacturing operations, and they expect a further slight decline in margins in the next quarter.
TSM的股票自抛售开始以来已下跌14%，目前交易价格约为明年盈利的18倍，我认为这是一个极好的投资机会。但是，尽管华尔街在惩罚这只股票，我认为增加支出和降低利润率只是成为整个人工智能时代最重要的芯片制造商的代价。
TSM's stock has fallen 14% since the start of the sell-off and is now trading at about 18 times next year's earnings , which I see as an excellent investment opportunity. But while Wall Street is punishing the stock , I think increased spending and lower margins are just the price of being the most important chipmaker in the entire AI era.
这里的问题在于利润率偏薄，Coherent 的毛利率约为40%，而 TSMC 为66%。
The problem here is the slim profit margins , with Coherent's gross profit margins at around 40% compared to TSMC's 66%.
现在我们又回到了原点，因为这正是 ASML 和 TSMC 目前所经历的巨量需求。Chat 基金还包含 Celestica、Vertiv、TSMC、ASML、Coherent、Micron、SK Hynix 和 Broadcom，是持有整条 AI 供应链的极佳方式。
Now, we're back to square one , because this is exactly the huge demand that ASML and TSMC are experiencing. The Chat fund also includes Celestica, Vertiv, TSMC, ASML, Coherent, Micron, SK Hynix and Broadcom, making it an excellent way to own the entire AI supply chain.
而 EUV 基金配置了20%，因为它是投资芯片和机械制造商的另一个极佳选择，例如 TSMC、ASML 和 Applied Materials。
While the EUV fund allocates 20% because it is another excellent option for investing in chip and machinery manufacturers, such as TSMC, ASML and Applied Materials.
TSMC、Micron、SK Hynix 和 Broadcom 的股票，其远期市盈率低于纳斯达克100指数，同时它们又是各自供应链环节中增长最快的公司之一。
Shares of TSMC, Micron, SK Hynix and Broadcom are trading at lower forward earnings ratios than the Nasdaq 100, while being among the fastest- growing companies in their respective sectors of the supply chain.
ASML 和 TSMC 认为，人工智能需求的持续时间将超过几乎所有其他公司，它们最近还表示，先进芯片的需求至少在未来两年内将超过供给。
ASML and TSMC believe that demand for artificial intelligence will last longer than almost any other company, and they recently stated that demand for advanced chips will exceed supply for at least two years.
观察点
这个频道对 $TSM 的历次判断
Ticker Symbol: YOU 在这只股票上共 3 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。