$TSM · Parkev Tatevosian, CFA · 2026-11-06
台积电是全球最好的制造商，几十年来击败了所有竞争对手；按测算公允价值566美元、股价395美元，说话者有加仓兴趣，但目前尚未持有。地缘政治风险迫使其在美国、欧洲和日本建厂，管理层预计未来几年毛利率将从58%降至53%，这一降幅尚未出现，因为需求超过供给。
逐段跳播
最后但同样重要的是 Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company（TSMC），在我看来它是世界上最好的制造商，没有之一。无论哪个行业，我都认为 TSMC 是最好的制造商，没有之一。
它用几十年的业绩证明了这一点，其表现超过了任何其他竞争对手。
Last but not least, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), which in my opinion is the best manufacturer in the world, period. Regardless of the sector, I believe TSMC is the best manufacturer, period.
It proves results over decades in which it has outperformed any other competitor.
我计算出的公允价值为566美元，而今天你可以用395美元买入 Taiwan Semiconductor 的股票。它也是因选举结果而市值下降的公司之一。自录制本期视频以来，它已经下跌了2.5%。
I calculated the fair value at $566, and you can buy Taiwan Semiconductor stock today at $395. It is also one of the companies whose value has decreased as a result of the election.
It has decreased by 2.5% since the recording of this video.
当然，TSMC 最大的风险因素之一是美中之间的地缘政治紧张以及中国对台湾的主张。这一地缘政治风险因素已经造成了阻力，迫使 Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company 分散其制造布局。
它正在美国、欧洲和日本增设制造设施，而管理团队表示，这些制造设施的盈利能力将不及其在本国的设施。因此，管理团队预计未来几年毛利率将从58%下降到53%。
Of course , one of the biggest risk factors for TSMC is the geopolitical tension between the United States and China and China’s claims to Taiwan. This geopolitical risk factor has already created headwinds that have forced Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company to diversify its manufacturing footprint.
It is adding manufacturing facilities in the United States, Europe and Japan, and the management team has stated that those manufacturing facilities will not be as profitable as its facilities in its home country.
Therefore, the management team expects gross profit margins to decrease from 58% to 53% over the next few years.
然而，这种利润率下降尚未发生，因为公司的需求仍然超过供应，其高产能利用率抵消了那些多元化和扩张中的制造设施带来的较低盈利能力。
However, this margin decline has not yet occurred, as the company’s demand still exceeds supply, and its high capacity utilization rate offsets the lower profitability from those diversified and expanding manufacturing facilities.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company 是这四家公司中唯一一家我尚未持有其股票的公司，但我当然有兴趣将其加入我的投资组合。
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company is the only one of these four companies that I do not already own in my portfolio, but I am certainly interested in adding it to my investment portfolio.
观察点
这个频道对 $TSM 的历次判断
Parkev Tatevosian, CFA 在这只股票上共 8 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。