$TSM · Dividend Data · 2026-11-05
在今日下跌8.72%、过去一个月下跌26.41%（年内仍上涨11.86%）之后，台积电是相当有吸引力的机会：它可以说是全球最不可或缺的芯片制造商，是AI数据中心建设的瓶颈，且不会冒险造成产能过剩。每股收益创纪录，同比增长57.5%，五年增长325%；经营现金流增长45.63%至959.4亿美元，自由现金流457.3亿美元（增长69%），毛利率66.4%。其滚动市盈率为24.15、远期市盈率为21.73，从历史看属便宜；未来数年AI将需要大量芯片。
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这里暗示一下这份名单上其余公司可能来自哪里——它们是构建AI数据中心供应链上的公司，比如TSMC，它为Nvidia设计芯片。
And here's a hint at where the rest of the companies on this list might come from—they're companies in the supply chain for building AI data centers, like TSMC, which makes chips designed by Nvidia.
我今天要分享的第三只股票是台湾积体电路制造公司，股票代码是TSM。该股今天下跌8.72%。过去五天累计下跌16.34%，过去一个月下跌26.41%。不过，自年初以来它上涨了11.86%。
The third stock I'm going to share today is Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, whose ticker symbol is TSM. This stock is down 8.72% today. It has fallen by 16.34% in the last five days and 26.41% in the last month.
However, it has increased by 11.86% since the beginning of the year.
它可以说是世界上不可或缺的公司。他们生产各种高质量的AI半导体芯片以及许多种通用质量的芯片。他们为Apple生产许多用于iPhone和其他产品的芯片。
It is arguably the most indispensable company in the world. They produce all kinds of high-quality AI semiconductor chips and many kinds of general-quality chips. They make many of Apple's chips used in iPhones and other products.
他们的业务很多元，但 AI 正在成为他们最大的业务板块。长期来看，这已被证明是一家很优秀的公司。如你所见，如果看他们的每股收益，他们刚刚创下了季度盈利的历史新高。过去五年他们的 EPS 增长了325%，而上一季度同比增长了57.5%。
Their business is diverse, but AI is becoming their largest business sector. It has proven to be a great company in the long run. And as you can see, if you look at their earnings per share, they just hit a record high for quarterly earnings.
Their EPS has grown 325% in the last five years and in the last quarter it increased 57.5% compared to the previous year.
他们目前的滚动12个月市盈率为24.15，按未来估值计算是21.73。所以，对 Broadcom 来说，这是过去五年里的历史低位，但如果把时间缩短到三年，看起来还要更便宜。这一点很重要，因为过去三年 AI 芯片的发展急剧加速。
They are currently trading at a trailing 12-month P/E ratio of 24.15 and based on future valuation it is 21.73. So, it's historically cheap for Broadcom over the past five years, but if we bring the time frame down to three years, it looks even cheaper.
This is important because the development of AI chips has accelerated rapidly in the last three years.
如果你关注 AI 和 AI 数据中心，TSMC 是最重要的公司之一，因为他们被视为这一建设过程中的瓶颈之一。因为这些公司是芯片的主要制造者，而他们扩大产能的速度赶不上 Nvidia 或 Broadcom 这类公司的需求。
If you follow AI and AI data centers, TSMC is one of the most important companies, as they are seen as one of the constraints in this construction. Because these companies are the ones that primarily make chips, and they are not able to scale up their production as quickly as companies like Nvidia or Broadcom want to.
Nvidia 一直在催促 TSMC 增加产量、多造芯片。因为 Nvidia 现在知道，如果他们有更多芯片，就能卖出多得多的芯片。他们每个季度都在这么说。
Nvidia is constantly urging TSMC to increase production, making more chips. Because Nvidia now knows that if they had more chips, they could sell a lot more chips. They say this every quarter.
现在看 TSMC，可以看到他们的经营性现金流大幅增长。同比增长45.63%，经营性现金流达到959.4亿美元。
Now, if we look at TSMC, we see that their operating cash flow has increased drastically. This is an increase of 45.63% over the previous year, amounting to operating cash flow of $95.94 billion.
这很有意思。供应链就是这样运作的。TSMC 为 Nvidia、Apple 和 Broadcom 这类公司制造芯片赚了很多钱，而这些公司又用这些芯片赚了更多的钱。不过，TSMC 的资本开支要高得多，因为他们必须建芯片制造厂，也就是晶圆厂。
所以，这也是产能没有扩大的原因之一。因为他们不想承担产能过剩的风险。
Now, this is quite intriguing. This is how the supply chain works. TSMC makes a lot of money making chips for companies like Nvidia, Apple, and Broadcom, who in turn make even more money using those chips.
However, TSMC's capital expenditure is much higher because they have to build chip manufacturing factories, or fabs. So, this is one of the reasons why production is not getting bigger.
Because they don't want to take the risk of creating excess production capacity.
所以，过去五年费了很大力气才说服 TSMC 把资本开支提高了95%。他们只提高了95%，而尽管这种商业模式更加资本密集，TSMC 仍然产生了大量自由现金流，过去12个月为457.3亿美元，比上年多69%。
So, in the last 5 years, it has taken a lot of effort to convince TSMC to increase their capital expenditure by 95%. They only increased it by 95% and despite this more capital-intensive business model, TSMC still generates a lot of free cash flow, which is $45.73 billion in the last 12 months and 69% more than the previous year.
TSMC 为世界上所有大公司制造芯片。它不仅为 Nvidia、Microsoft、Alphabet、Tesla、Nvidia 制造，甚至也为 Intel 制造，这相当令人意外，因为 Intel 有自己的晶圆厂。
还有 Qualcomm、Broadcom、AMD、Analog Devices、Marvell Technology 和 Cerebras 这类较小的公司，Cerebras 我没有放进这个视频，但它的股价跌了很多，这挺有意思。我需要更详细地研究一下这家公司。
TSMC makes chips for all the major companies in the world. It does this not only for Nvidia, Microsoft, Alphabet, Tesla, Nvidia, but even for Intel, which is quite surprising because Intel has its own fab.
Smaller companies like Qualcomm, Broadcom, AMD, Analog Devices, Marvell Technology, and Cerebras, which I'm not including in this video, but their stock prices have fallen a lot which is quite interesting.
I need to do more detailed research on that company.
所以，像今天这样 TSMC 股价下跌8.91%、过去一周遭到大量抛售的时候，我认为这是一个相当有吸引力的机会。投资 TSMC 就等于投资整个芯片制造业，而如果你关注 AI，你就知道未来几年我们会需要大量芯片。
So, on a day like today when TSMC shares are down 8.91% and have sold off a lot in the past week, I think this is a pretty attractive opportunity. An investment in TSMC means an investment in chip manufacturing as a whole, and if you follow AI, you know we're going to need a lot of chips in the coming years.
TSMC 并没有把利润率提高到会给 Nvidia 这类高营收公司带来压力的程度。他们只是小幅提高了利润。他们的利润率本来就很出色，毛利率为66.4%，净利率为51.1%，但并非所有半导体制造商都是如此。
TSMC has not increased its profit margin to the point where it would put pressure on companies with high revenue like Nvidia. They only increased profits slightly. Their profit margins are already great, with a gross margin of 66.4% and a net margin of 51.1%, but this is not the case for all semiconductor manufacturers.