TXN 基本面强劲——营收增长 23%、毛利率 61%、过去十二个月自由现金流 65 亿美元——受工业/汽车和数据中心需求推动。但在 2026 年上涨超过 66% 后，其远期市盈率为 27，接近 2026 年高点，而按 10.75% WACC 的 DCF 估值给出的合理价值为 232 美元，对比 288 美元的市场价格；看起来估值偏高，并非买入标的；下调评级至持有。

Texas Instruments reported a 23% increase in revenue for the last quarter, with gross margins of 61% and free cash flow of $6.5 billion over the past twelve months.

The Texas Instruments management team attributes this success to the recovery in demand from end markets, including the industrial and automotive sectors, and of course, the clearly increasing demand for data centers.

The management team is implementing price increases across its product range, while maintaining discipline with regard to capital investment. It is not surprising to me that the share price has risen significantly in 2026.

At the start of the year, I rated it as a great buying opportunity, and I reminded investors several times this year of how attractive Texas Instruments' value will be in 2026.

But do I still think it's a buying opportunity, or do I think it's too late to buy Texas Instruments shares? Okay, let me review the company's long-term performance and compare it to its valuation to determine if it is still an attractive opportunity.

Well, if we look at Texas Instruments' results over the past decade, we can see evidence of significant fluctuations. The fluctuations are clearly visible in the results of Texas Instruments, whose revenues over the past twelve months of $19.45 billion still have not reached their previous peak in 2023, when revenues exceeded $20 billion on an annualized basis.

The company's profit margins have seen similar ups and downs over the past decade, but are generally excellent . Even at its lowest point, the company recorded an operating profit margin of 34%.

This is something to be truly proud of, that during your worst moments in the past decade, your operating profit margin was still at 34%. This is truly impressive.

The company is now recovering as it implements price increases and utilizes a larger percentage of its production capacity. Its operating margins have now risen to over 38%, and I wouldn't be surprised if its operating profit margins surpassed their previous peak within the next 18 months.

Returns on invested capital are also recovering from their lows, and even at 19.4%, its returns on invested capital remain strong and higher than the weighted average cost of capital by a ratio close to two to one.

Again, it's impressive that even in your worst moments, your return on invested capital is still significantly higher than your weighted average cost of capital, and at your peak, your return on invested capital exceeded 40%, which is close to the premium classes compared to the average S &P 500 stock.

I mentioned that Texas Instruments stock is performing exceptionally well in 2026. It has already risen by more than 66%, and I previously rated Texas Instruments as a buy opportunity, with my last update and confirmation on August 28, 2026.

The valuation has increased considerably since then . The company began trading in 2026 with a forward price-to-earnings ratio close to single digits . It was trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of around 15 or 14 at one point, and I saw that as an incredible opportunity.

I saw a turning point. I expected that, and now the valuation has almost doubled. The stock is trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 27, which is roughly the midpoint of the stock's trading levels since late 2023, but if we look only at 2026, it is approaching its all- year highs.

So, I also look at the valuation using a discounted cash flow model, which takes into account how much cash flow I estimate the company will generate from now until the very distant future, and I discount those cash flows to their value today using a discount rate, which I and the industry call the weighted average cost of capital.

Thus, the weighted average cost of capital that I calculated for Texas Instruments was 10.75. Again, about half the company's return on invested capital, and the fair value I estimated for Texas Instruments today is $232.

Compared to the current market price of $288, Texas Instruments' valuation appears to be overvalued. It is the most expensive all year on a forward price-to-earnings multiple basis , and near its highest levels, and the discounted cash flow valuation also indicates that the stock is overvalued .

So, in answer to the question I posed in the introduction and in the title, I do n't think Texas Instruments stock is a buying opportunity anymore . Therefore, I will be downgrading the stock rating to " Hold", and updating that rating today, October 8, 2026.