$TXN · Dividendology · 2026-10-27
说话者继续持有 TXN：其 2020-2023 年的资本开支旨在将芯片成本降低约 40%，却严重压低了自由现金流，使该股在约四年间走势平淡且波动，同时股息增长放缓。如今这部分支出正在下降，每股自由现金流正在上升，TXN 表示按 2026 年营收共识计算，有望超过每股 8 美元，而此前约为 6.47 美元——创下纪录——因此更高的股息增长必然在路上。
逐段跳播
第四只刚刚宣布提高股息、你应该了解的股票，是我个人组合中一直持有的一只股票——Texas Instruments，它宣布提高股息7%。有意思的是，如果你看过去五年的股价，会发现它在大约四年里几乎毫无进展，而且波动非常大。
然后我们看到了股价的大幅上涨，自年初以来已上涨72%。看看我的个人组合，可以看到我目前在这个持仓上大约赚了102%到103%。那么，发生了什么？我为什么一直持有它？好，我们需要先退一步，因为你要意识到，Texas Instruments 历来是一只股息增长非常出色的股票。
打开股息明细表，看看“Texas Instruments”。你可以看到股息率略低于2%，但乍一看你会发现一些重要的警示信号，比如自由现金流增长为负，以及自由现金流派息率接近200%。
虽然他们在2015年到2020至2021年前后以很快的速度提高了股息，但过去几年股息增长已经放缓。乍一看似乎有很多警示信号，但你需要了解公司内部正在发生什么。那么，我们先来评估公司的自由现金流情况。
好，如果我们转到自由现金流分析表，把 Texas Instruments 的数据输入进去。这就是我们开始解决问题的地方。我们可以看到，过去十年的大部分时间里，经营现金流持续实现了良好增长。
事实上，是资本支出大幅扩张。记住，自由现金流就是经营现金流减去资本支出。股息是从自由现金流中支付的。你会注意到，资本支出从2020年到2023年大幅增加，但我们开始看到这一资本支出出现下降。
为什么资本支出会出现这样的激增？归根结底，目标是降低约40%的芯片成本，以扩大整体利润率。因此，这是一个长期举措，是他们预期会结出丰硕成果的一步。这里我们可以看到他们所说的高资本支出时期，而这些资本支出是对业务的长期投资。
这就是这项长期投资的最终结果。由于高资本支出时期大幅压低了股票的自由现金流，你可以看到股票的长期价格跟随其自由现金流变化。它已经大幅下跌，但随着我们现在处于这一高资本支出时期的尾声，每股自由现金流正在上升，而且他们表示，按照当前2026年的营收共识，有望实现每股自由现金流超过8美元。
那么，为了便于理解，打开我们的股票筛选器，看看 Texas Instruments。看看这只股票的自由现金流。在高资本支出时期之前，它大约是6.47美元。因此，我们应在2026年达到创纪录的每股自由现金流水平。
这确实令人兴奋。所以，由于他们成功完成了这项大规模资本支出，市场现在已意识到正在发生什么。我们开始再次看到强劲的股息增长，市场也通过相应地为股票定价作出了回应，Texas Instruments 仅2026年就上涨了72%。
因此，我祝贺所有继续持有这只股票的人。更高水平的股息增长肯定正在路上。
The fourth stock that just announced an increase in dividends and that you should know about is a stock that I keep in my personal portfolio, Texas Instruments, which announced a 7 % increase.
Interestingly, if you look at the stock price over the past five years, you will find that it has made little to no progress for about four years and has been very volatile. Then we saw this huge increase in the share price, which has risen by 72% since the beginning of the year.
Looking at my personal portfolio, we can see that I have currently earned approximately 102-103% in this financial position. So, what happened? Why do I keep it in my wallet? Okay, we need to step back for a moment, because you have to realize that Texas Instruments has historically been an amazing stock in dividend growth .
Go to the dividend breakdown sheet and take a look at "Texas Instruments ". You can see that the yield is slightly less than 2% , but at first glance you will see some major caveats, such as negative free cash flow growth , and a free cash flow payout ratio that is close to 200%.
While they increased dividend payouts at a rapid rate from 2015 to around 2020-2021, dividend growth has slowed in the last few years . At first glance there seem to be a lot of red flags, but you need to understand what is happening internally in the company.
So, let's start by assessing what was happening with the company's free cash flow. Okay, if we move on to our free cash flow analysis sheet , let's enter the data from Texas Instruments.
This is where we begin to solve problems. We can see that operating cash flows have continued to achieve good growth for most of the past decade. In fact, it was capital spending that expanded significantly.
Remember that free cash flow is simply operating cash flows less capital expenditures. Dividends are paid from free cash flow. What you will notice is that capital spending increased significantly from 2020 to 2023, but we are beginning to see a decline in that capital spending.
Why was there such a surge in this capital expenditure? Well, ultimately, the goal was to reduce chip costs by about 40% to expand overall profit margins. Therefore, this was a long-term step.
This is a step they expect to bear great fruit . Here we can see the period of high capital expenditure they were talking about, and this capital expenditure was a long-term investment in business.
Here is the end result of this long- term investment. Since the period of high capital expenditure has significantly reduced the stock's free cash flow, you can see that the stock's long-term price follows the stock's free cash flow.
It has fallen significantly, but as we are now at the end of this high capital expenditure, the free cash flow per share is rising, and they have stated that they are on track to deliver more than $8 in free cash flow per share according to the current 2026 revenue consensus.
So, to put that in context, go to our Stocks Screener and look at Texas Instruments. Look at the free cash flow of the stock. Before the period of high capital expenditure, it was around $6.47.
Therefore, we should reach record levels of free cash flow per share in 2026. This is really exciting to do. Thus, because they have succeeded in carrying out this massive capital expenditure, the market is now aware of what is happening .
We are beginning to see strong levels of dividend growth again, and the market has responded by pricing the stock accordingly, with Texas Instruments up 72% in 2026 alone. Therefore, I congratulate everyone who continued to hold onto this stock.
Higher levels of dividend growth are certainly on the way.
观察点
这个频道对 $TXN 的历次判断
Dividendology 在这只股票上共 2 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。