Uber 的估值反映了市场对自动驾驶竞争的过度恐慌；其主导性的网络规模支撑未来利润与营收增长。
逐段跳播
我今天早上做的第二笔交易是价值2,000美元的Uber股票。Uber股价目前为69美元，并且像大多数公司一样，正在市场中经历急剧下跌。自年初以来已下跌30%。
The second trade I made this morning was $2,000 worth of Uber shares. Uber's stock is currently at $69, and it's experiencing a sharp decline in the market, like most companies. It's down 30% since the beginning of the year.
Uber股价已跌至约100美元。在此期间没有太大变化。事实上，对Uber来说，唯一发生根本性变化的就是其股价，下跌了30%。但即便每股100美元，Uber的股票也并未被高估。例如，Uber股票目前对应未来市盈率为17倍。
如果把某些保险项目计入，Uber的自由现金流收益率很可能在5%到6%左右。对一家公司来说，这些都是非常低的倍数。
Uber's stock price has fallen to around $100. Not much has changed during that time. In fact, the only thing that has fundamentally changed for Uber is its stock price, which has dropped by 30%.
But even at $100 per share , Uber's stock wasn't overpriced. For example, Uber's stock is currently trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 17. If you factor in certain insurance items, Uber's free cash flow yield is likely around 5 to 6%. These are very low multiples for a company.
这类公司才是真正让投资者担忧的。它的定价包含了重大的颠覆风险。Uber的定价并未被当作一家快速增长、高盈利且可规模化的企业。不过，我认为这就是现实。
This type of company is what really worries investors. It's priced with significant disruption risks. Uber isn't priced as a fast-growing, highly profitable, and scalable business. However, I think that's the reality.
所以，显然，这些对自动驾驶汽车增长的担忧正在给Uber带来不确定性，而这种不确定性已被计入股价。因此，今天的投资者需要判断这些担忧是否已被准确定价，以及Uber是否会经历真正的颠覆，或其经济状况是否会受到这些自动驾驶汽车的负面影响。
在我看来，我不认为会达到目前股价所计入的那种程度。我认为Uber会增长。凭借其网络带来的巨大优势，Uber将继续成长为一家拥有巨大经济实力的公司。而且Uber的网络比其最接近的竞争对手大得多，差距是巨大的。
So, obviously, these concerns about the growth of self-driving vehicles are creating uncertainty for Uber, and that uncertainty is priced into the stock price. Therefore, investors today need to determine whether these concerns are accurately priced in, and whether Uber will experience genuine disruption or have its economics negatively impacted by these self-driving vehicles.
When I look at it, I don't think that will happen to the extent that the stock is currently priced in. I think Uber will grow. Uber continues to grow into a company with tremendous economic power thanks to its network, which provides enormous benefits.
And Uber's network is so much larger than its closest competitors that the difference is enormous .
例如，我们可以在这里用视觉方式说明这一点，因为数字并不能反映其真实规模。按每周出行次数计算，Uber比Waymo大595倍。Waymo完成50万次出行，而Uber完成2.97亿次。
这是巨大的差距。再说一次，50万次出行对2.97亿次。然而Waymo似乎并没有在追赶Uber。就出行次数而言，Uber的增长速度远快于Waymo。所以，两家公司之间总出行次数的差距每个季度都在扩大。
For example, we can illustrate this visually here because the numbers don't reflect its true size. Uber is 595 times larger than Waymo based on the number of weekly trips it makes.
Waymo makes 500 A thousand trips, while Uber makes 297 million. That's a huge difference. Again, 500,000 trips versus 297 million . Yet Waymo doesn't seem to be catching up with Uber.
Uber is growing at a much faster pace than Waymo in terms of the number of trips. So, the gap in total trips between the two companies widens every quarter.
当然，现在许多这类自动驾驶汽车网络仍在建立之中。可以肯定地说，它们会随着时间推移占据更大的市场份额，而且它们会尝试。但即便在它们已经运营多年的地区，比如旧金山，Uber仍然盈利，甚至还在增长。
Waymo从一开始就是这种情况，因为它在某些地区和某些城市完美地发展了其服务，旧金山就是一个典型例子。事实上，Uber更适合其他城市。然而，即便在那些不太适合Uber、更适合自动驾驶出租车的地区，Uber仍然表现异常出色。
Now, of course, many of these self-driving car networks are still being established. It's safe to say they will capture a larger market share over time, and they will try . But even in areas where they've been operating for years, like San Francisco, Uber is still profitable and even growing .
This has been the case for Waymo from the beginning, as it developed its services perfectly in certain areas, and in certain cities, San Francisco being a prime example . In fact, Uber is a better fit for other cities.
Yet , even in areas less suited to Uber and more suited to self-driving taxis, Uber is still performing exceptionally well.
我无法预测股价的方向，因为情况可能突然变化。但我相信Uber会实现利润增长。还有它的收入随着时间推移，我认为它会以相对较快的速度增长。在这个估值下，我认为很大一部分风险已经被计入。
I can't predict the direction of the stock price, as circumstances can change suddenly. But I believe Uber will see profit growth. And its revenue over time, and I think it will grow at a relatively rapid pace.
At this valuation, I think a large portion of the risk is already priced in.
这个频道对 $UBER 的历次判断
Joseph Carlson After Hours 在这只股票上共 4 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。