UBER 在 69 美元被低估，合理价值为 115 美元；此次收购价格略高但战略上合理，看多逻辑维持不变。

We have huge news for Uber stock investors as the company has announced an acquisition deal worth more than $2 billion. I will share my opinion about this acquisition as an Uber shareholder.

Did they pay an excessive amount ? I will answer this question as well and provide you with an update on my recommendation regarding Uber and my estimate of its fair value.

On October 6, Uber announced the acquisition of ezCater, a leading US platform for catering and workplace meals, in an all-cash deal valued at $2.3 billion . There are two important things I have learned from this first paragraph.

Acquisition price: $2.3 billion. I will share with you later why I think this amount is a little exaggerated, or may be exaggerated based on the details available to me , which are not many.

True , this is just a one-page ad, and to me, evaluating a company based on a one-page ad is highly speculative. But from my initial point of view, the price seems to be exaggerated, and I will share with you the figures I use to justify this conclusion.

Secondly, the important thing is that Uber made this deal entirely for cash.

Uber could have used the shares to buy the company. They could have issued more Uber shares to buy the company.

So, when you see a company doing the opposite, i.e., using cash to make a deal, that's another sign that the management team and owners believe the stock is undervalued . Therefore, they do not want to use stocks as a currency for exchange.

Instead, they want to use cash because they feel the stocks are more valuable than they are .

I agree with what Uber is doing, and I used to agree with what SpaceX was doing. I would have done the same if I were in the position of those management teams. I feel that Uber stock is significantly undervalued , so I will not use the stock for acquisitions.

Let's compare that to Uber's business , shall we? Uber expects around $60 billion in total bookings for the third quarter, the next quarter, with growth of approximately 20% at the midpoint.

So, Uber's overall booking growth is slightly better than EasyKeter's, and Uber's total bookings, on an annual basis, will reach 240 billion.

Currently, Uber is trading at a market capitalization of $138 billion. Therefore, Uber is sold for about half of its total bookings in terms of market value . Let's say 60%, right?

So, Uber is being sold for far less than its total bookings, but in this acquisition, Uber paid a near one-to- one ratio in terms of total bookings and ratings. So, this is the announcement.

They generated more than $2.5 billion in total bookings, and Uber paid $2.3 billion to complete the acquisition. They paid roughly one-to-one in terms of total bookings versus value paid, while Uber's own business trades at roughly 0.6 to 1.

So, they paid about 0.9 to 1, which is a slight overvaluation.

When you take into account that Uber is growing slightly faster than this company, it tips the scales in favor of considering it an overpayment. But if you look at it based on the average order value, the company achieves an average order value that exceeds $400.

This is also an important metric to consider, because it means it's a more profitable deal for Uber. If the average order value is higher, each transaction becomes more profitable, because you imagine that each transaction incurs a cost for Uber.

They have to pay the driver a fee to make the delivery. There are processing fees, etc., and acquisition costs. But if you're acquiring a company whose average order value is over $400, which I imagine is roughly 10 times the average order value of a typical Uber customer, then paying a valuation premium becomes more justified.

So, even if they paid too much , I wouldn't say it was a huge overpayment. It may only be a slight overpayment, depending on how much you value the difference between the average higher demand value and the difference between Uber's growth rate, which slightly outpaces ezCater's growth rate.

Strategically speaking , I think this makes sense; When I think about Uber's shift and its defense against self-driving car technology, this fits in nicely. Food delivery is less vulnerable to the risks of self- driving car technology.

It also provides Uber with greater scope, helping it to defend itself against the risks of self-driving car technology, because they have more orders and a larger business volume to allocate those investments in autonomous technology .

So, in general, as a shareholder, I am neutral on this move. It is still too early for me to determine whether this is a good or bad move , or whether it adds value to shareholders or not; But I tend to think it's a positive move for Uber, especially as it contributes to Uber's defense against self- driving car technology, and I think that's the biggest factor affecting the overall Uber rating.

Speaking of Uber's valuation, I think it's still very attractive to investors at a market price of $69. It is significantly less than my fair value estimate of $115. So , I still believe that even after this acquisition , this remains one of the best stocks you can buy right now, as this acquisition has not significantly changed my opinion on that valuation .