$UBER · Schwab Network · 2026-11-04
Uber本季度营收与利润均超预期,核心业务表现强于其股价:货运收入同比增长34%,配送增长23%,而出行(mobility)因伊朗战争、高油价和司机短缺下滑约2%;预订额增速从24%放缓至20%,第四季度指引中值645亿美元低于部分分析师预期,但调整后EBITDA增长31%,自由现金流超过25亿美元。司机激励仍是一项成本,新增行程必须能带来可观利润。Robotaxi是长期机会,但目前自动驾驶行程的盈利能力较低,且利润最终由谁获取尚不确定。
逐段跳播
我们正在分析 Uber 最新的季度业绩。那么 Christine,你对此怎么看?总体而言,Uber 仍在增长,而且确实有一些亮点。
We are analyzing Uber's latest quarterly results. So Christine, what are your thoughts on this? I mean, overall Uber is still growing and there were definitely some bright spots.
是的,我认为这是一份相当不错的财报,营收和利润都超出了预期。如果你看他们的三大主要业务板块,货运或商品运输是推动这次营收增长的动力。总体来看,他们的货运收入同比增长了34%。
Yeah, I think it was a pretty good report, you know, they exceeded expectations on both revenue and profit. And if you look at their three main sectors, freight or goods transportation is what has driven this revenue growth.
Overall, their revenue from freight grew by 34% year-on-year.
另一方面,出行业务,也就是他们的核心网约车板块,表现就没那么好。收入为75亿,预期是77亿,所以同比下降了约2%。
On the other hand, mobility, meaning their core ride-sharing sector, didn't do so well. Their income was 7.5 billion. The expectation was 7.7 billion, so it's down about 2% year-over-year.
如果你听 CEO Dara Khosrowshahi 的说法,这很大程度上是由于伊朗战争、高油价和司机短缺。而且这主要发生在国际市场上,但也对美国产生了影响。所以这些就是其中一些影响因素。
If you listen to CEO Dara Khosrowshahi's comments, it's largely due to the Iran war, high fuel prices, and driver shortages. And it was mainly international, but it also had an impact in the United States. And so those were some of the influences there.
配送业务的另一个亮点是,配送收入同比增长了23%。预订量同比增长了20%到23%,或者说22%。所以整体情况相当亮眼。
And another bright spot in delivery was, you know, revenue from delivery grew 23% year-over-year. Bookings have increased by 20-23% or 22% year-on-year. So the overall picture was quite bright.
可以看出投资者喜欢这份业绩。股价现在上涨了约7%。业绩公布后不久曾有一段短暂的平静,因为我认为当时存在关于总预订量的疑问,尽管他们的总预订量或整体预订量增长了20%,第三季度增长了20%,但比第二季度24%的增速略有放缓。
You can see that investors liked the results. The share price is now up about 7%. There was a bit of a lull right after the results came out, because I think there was a question about gross bookings, although they had a 20% growth in gross bookings or total bookings, they had a 20% growth in the third quarter, but it was a bit slower than the second quarter where we saw a 24% growth.
他们给出的第四季度指引目标是645亿美元,处于此前指引区间的中段,但我认为这仍略低于一些分析师的预期,不过可以看出投资者现在已经理解了整份财报,他们似乎对此相当满意。
They gave a guidance target of $64.5 billion for the fourth quarter, which is in the middle of their previous guidance range, but I think it was still a little bit lower than some analysts were expecting, but you can see investors have now understood the whole report and they seem to be quite happy with it.
当我们看这些数字时,你确实提出了一些很好的观点。我们看到的强劲增长,盈利能力的改善。Andrew,你也提到了。与此同时,也存在一些限制,无论是司机方面还是高油价方面。你对此怎么看?
这将在未来6到12个月对 Uber 这类组织的整体健康产生什么影响?增长机会在哪里,还是说我们担心一些下行风险?
When we look at the numbers, I mean, you definitely bring up some good points, right? The strong growth we have seen, the improvement in profitability. And Andrew, you mentioned it too.
At the same time, there are also some limitations, whether it's with drivers or the high price of gasoline. What is your opinion on this? And what impact will this have on the overall health of organizations like Uber in the next 6 to 12 months?
You know, where are the growth opportunities, or are we worried about some of the downside?
我认为总体而言,Uber 的核心业务比其股价表现更强劲。引起我注意的是,总预订量增长了20%,但调整后 EBITDA 增长了31%。投资者希望看到利润增长快于业务增长。
I think overall, Uber's core business is stronger than their stock performance. And what caught my attention was that gross bookings increased by 20%, but adjusted EBITDA increased by 31%.
Investors want to see profits grow faster than the business.
Uber 本季度产生了超过25亿美元的自由现金流。
Uber generated more than $2.5 billion in free cash flow this quarter.
我认为在一些国际市场上,Uber 的供给低于需求。所以问题不在于找不到客户,而在于找不到足够的司机。高油价和司机短缺迫使 Uber 增加激励。管理层表示10月份供给有所改善,这令人鼓舞,但这些激励仍然带来经济成本。
I think in some international markets, Uber's supply is lower than its demand. So, the problem is not finding customers, but finding enough drivers. High fuel prices and a driver shortage have forced Uber to increase incentives.
Management says that supplies improved in October, which is encouraging, but those incentives still have an economic cost.
Uber 的挑战不仅在于增加出行次数,还在于确保额外的出行能产生有吸引力的利润。我在考虑其他收入来源,我肯定想提到 robotaxi 和自动驾驶汽车。但在那之前,我们想想配送业务,想想 Uber 在配送方面在做什么。
And Uber's challenge is not just to increase the number of rides, but to ensure that the additional rides generate attractive profits. You know, I'm thinking about other sources of income and I definitely want to come up with robo-taxis and autonomous vehicles.
But before we go there, we think about delivery, we think about what Uber is doing with delivery.
DoorDash 肯定是一个强大的竞争对手。我们在哪里看到这种参与度,它是否可能成为一个真正的增长领域?Christine,你对此怎么看?
DoorDash is definitely a big competitor. Where are we seeing that engagement piece and whether or not it could be a real growth area? Christine, what is your opinion on this?
是的,正如我所说,配送业务本季度是一个亮点。他们正通过收购进行扩张,比如德国的 Delivery Hero 和美国的 Easy Cater,同时也在加强与 Costco 等机构的合作,Costco 现在按总预订额计算已是他们最大的商户之一。所以,是的,这是他们做得非常好的一个领域。
Yes, as I said, delivery was a bright spot this quarter. They are expanding through acquisitions, such as with Delivery Hero in Germany and Easy Cater in the US, and are increasing partnerships with organizations like Costco, which is now one of their top merchants in terms of gross bookings.
So, yes, this is a place where they are doing very well.
如果你看他们的月活跃用户,或者说他们所称的月活跃平台订阅用户,第三季度达到了2.15亿。这是配送和网约车两项业务合计的。而且第三季度完成了40亿,抱歉,超过40亿次行程。所以,这块业务状况相当不错,我认为他们在那里非常有竞争力。
If you look at their monthly active users or, um, what they call monthly active platform subscribers, they reached 215 million in the third quarter. Um, so this is for both delivery and ride share businesses.
And that was in 4. Um, sorry, 4 billion, over 4 billion trips completed in the third quarter. So, that business is in pretty good shape and I think they're very competitive there.
我几乎,我是说,我简直不敢相信他们找不到司机。所以你可能会想,这个策略出了什么问题,怎么让更多人来开车?或者说,是不是他们招到的人不够,我是说,为什么没有更多司机?听到这个说法我有点意外,但没关系,我相信它。有时候岗位就是很难招到人。
And you know, I almost, I mean, I can't believe they can't find a driver. So, you might be wondering what's wrong with the strategy, how to get more people to drive, right? Or you know, are they not getting enough, I mean, why aren't there more drivers?
I'm a little surprised to hear this comment, but it's okay and I believe it. Sometimes positions are difficult to fill.
让我们转向 Robotaxi 和自动驾驶的未来。我们仍在等待这些。我们听到很多相关消息,但看起来它们要到2027年才会成为现实,Andrew。
Let's move towards robo-taxis and an autonomous future. Well, you know, we're still waiting for these. We've heard a lot about these, but it looks like they're going to become a reality in 2027, Andrew.
是的,我认为 Uber 最大的长期问题是自动驾驶汽车。Uber 已承诺投资高达100亿美元来构建这一生态系统。
Yes, I think the biggest long-term question for Uber is autonomous vehicles. Uber has pledged to invest up to $10 billion to build that ecosystem.
这里有一个有趣的事实。目前在 Uber 平台上,自动驾驶行程的盈利能力低于由司机驾驶的行程。随着技术进步和车辆成本下降,这种情况可能会改变。
And here is an interesting fact. Automated rides are currently less profitable than driver-driven rides on the Uber platform. This may change as technology improves and vehicle costs decrease.
Uber 还认为,其网络能让 Robotaxi 保持忙碌,这将使其相对于独立运营商具有优势。然而,这一点可能有点令人困惑。去掉司机并不能降低成本。必须有人为车辆、技术、充电、保险和维护付费。
Uber also believes that its network will keep robo-taxis busy, which will give them an advantage over independent operators. However, this can be a bit confusing. Removing the driver does not reduce costs.
Someone must pay for the vehicle, technology, charging, insurance, and maintenance.
所以,我在这其中看到了很大潜力,但也存在显著的不确定性。问题不在于 Robotaxi 会不会到来,问题在于如果它们到来,谁将分享利润。
So, I see a lot of potential in this, but there is also significant uncertainty. The question is not whether robo-taxis will come or not, the question is who will share in the profits if they come.
是的,也许 Robotaxi 能为他们解决那个供给问题。不过,我完全同意。目前,自动驾驶车辆的盈利能力较低。Uber 的 CEO 说过,随着时间推移,它们将达到与无人驾驶汽车相同的盈利水平,但现在还不是这样。
Yeah, I mean, maybe robo-taxis can solve that supply problem for them. However, I completely agree. Now, automated vehicles are less profitable. Uber's CEO has said that over time they will reach the same level of profitability as driverless cars, but that's not the case now.
但是,是的,他们预计明年其平台上将有2000辆车,到2028年及以后将达到数千辆。所以,他们正在进入这个领域,我认为他们必须这么做,因为来自 Waymo 等其他公司的竞争日益激烈,他们也在亚特兰大和奥斯汀与 Waymo 建立了合作。
不过,这里显然对 Uber 来说是一个巨大的机会。
But, yes, they are expecting 2,000 vehicles on their platform next year and that will reach several thousand in 2028 and beyond. So, they're getting into this game and I think they have to, because there's increasing competition from others like Waymo, who they've also partnered with in Atlanta and Austin.
However, there is clearly a huge opportunity here for Uber.
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