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$UBER

$UBER · Parkev Tatevosian, CFA · 2026-11-07

AI 摘要 · Parkev Tatevosian, CFA

Uber仍是说话者最看好的买入标的之一:即便财报后上涨7%,它仍跑输标普500,但16.3倍的远期市盈率偏低,他的DCF估值为每股125美元,较上涨7.35%后的股价高出约75%。他认为投资者高估了自动驾驶落地的速度,只把它当作风险,但它同时也是机会;出行收入下降2%,因为Uber在预订额中留存的比例减少。

看涨他说的是几年内
《Is Uber One of the Most Undervalued Stocks to Buy Right Now?》
Parkev Tatevosian, CFA发布 2026-11-07 · 22 段内容
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22 段内容
0:007:26

Uber 公布了季度财务业绩,显示营收增长10%,达到148亿美元。此外,Uber 经调整的息税折旧摊销前利润(EBITDA)增长31%,达到30亿美元。

Uber announced its quarterly financial results, which showed revenues rising 10% to $14.8 billion. In addition, Uber's adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) rose 31% to $3 billion.

录制本视频时,Uber 股价上涨了约7%,也就是公司公布季度财务业绩的第二天。当然,围绕美国选举结果以及这对 Uber 股价可能意味着什么,也存在一些乐观情绪,我会在本视频中详细讨论。

Uber's stock rose by about 7% at the time this video was recorded, the day after the company announced its quarterly financial results . Of course, there was also some optimism surrounding the results of the US elections and what that might mean for Uber's stock, which I will discuss in detail in this video.

我还会更新我对 Uber 的公允价值估算,并告诉大家我是否仍然认为 Uber 是当下最值得买入的股票之一,这正是我全年一直在说的。

I will also be updating my fair value estimate for Uber, and I will let you know if I still think that Uber is one of the best stocks to buy right now, which is what I have been saying all year.

遗憾的是,即便在今天上涨7%之后,Uber 股价仍然跑输更广泛的标普500指数。Uber 的管理团队明白其股价为何跑输标普500,原因是自动驾驶汽车技术。

Unfortunately, even after today's 7% increase, Uber's stock is still underperforming the broader S&P 500 index. Uber's management team understands why its stock is underperforming compared to the S&P 500, and this is due to self-driving car technology.

管理团队在致投资者声明的第一段中讨论了这一点,称他们目前对自动驾驶的聚焦点在于商业化落地。预计到今年年底,Uber 平台上将有约700辆完全自动驾驶汽车,到明年年底这一数字预计将接近增至三倍,到2027年底达到2000辆。

The management team discussed this in the first paragraph of their statement to investors, saying that their focus on autonomous driving is now on commercial implementation. With around 700 fully autonomous vehicles expected on the Uber platform by the end of this year, the number is projected to nearly triple by the end of next year, reaching 2,000 vehicles by the end of 2027.

Uber 与多家自动驾驶汽车供应商建立了合作,但众所周知,Tesla 并未与 Uber 合作。

Uber has partnerships with several autonomous vehicle providers, but Tesla is known not to be collaborating with Uber.

我在开头提到过,有一些选举结果特别有利于 Uber。随着 Elon Musk 支持的政界人士落败,Uber 股票投资者中越来越多人认为,Tesla 在自动驾驶汽车技术方面的扩张将慢于预期。

I mentioned in the introduction that there were some election results that specifically benefited Uber. With the loss of the politicians backed by Elon Musk, there is growing enthusiasm among Uber stock investors that Tesla's expansion into self-driving car technology will be slower than expected.

Uber 减缓并应对这些风险的一种方式,就是自己投资这项技术。做到这一点的一种方式,是从核心业务中产生强劲的现金流,然后利用这些流动性投资自动驾驶技术,无论是通过合作还是直接购买车辆。

One way Uber can slow down and counter these risks is by investing in this technology itself. One way to do this is by generating strong cash flows from its core business, and then using that liquidity to invest in self-driving technology, either through partnerships or by purchasing vehicles directly.

在最近一个已完成的季度,经营活动现金流增至26亿。

Cash flow from operations rose to 2.6 billion in the last quarter that was completed.

展望未来,管理团队预计将继续增长,总预订量将达到642.5亿美元。按中值计算,这将比去年同期增长20%。经调整的息税折旧摊销前利润升至约31.8亿美元,高于上一季度的约30亿美元。

Looking ahead, the management team expects continued growth with total bookings reaching $64.25 billion. At the midpoint, this would represent a 20% increase compared to the same period last year.

Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization rose to about $3.18 billion, up from about $3 billion in the previous quarter.

Uber 的另一个强大优势,是它与客户已有的关系以及品牌忠诚度。该平台拥有超过2.15亿月活跃客户,同比增长14%。

Another strong advantage for Uber is its existing relationships with customers and brand loyalty. It boasts more than 215 million monthly active customers on the platform, representing a 14% year-on-year increase.

此外,Uber 很可能还拥有数亿其他客户,他们不是月活跃用户,但可能会定期活跃,每6个月一次,或每年一次。当然,Uber 还有数百万更多的人,他们手机上装有该应用、存有支付信息,并且以前使用过 Uber。

In addition , Uber probably boasts hundreds of millions of other customers who are not monthly active but may be active periodically, once every 6 months, or once a year. Certainly, Uber has millions more people who have the app on their phones, have payment information on file, and have previously used Uber.

考虑到像 Tesla 这样的新自动驾驶汽车提供商将不得不建立这些客户关系,这些客户关系极具价值。然而,并非所有消息对 Uber 都是好消息。事实上,其出行业务部门的收入下降了2%。

These customer relationships are highly valued when you consider that a new self-driving car provider , such as Tesla for example, will have to build those relationships. However, not all the news was good for Uber.

In fact , its mobility division saw a 2% decrease in revenue.

这是其出行业务收入下滑的结果。你可以看到,出行业务的总预订量同比增长了18%,但 Uber 自身保留的比例相比去年同期更低。

This was a result of declining revenue from its mobility business . You can see that total bookings in the mobility business rose by 18 % year-on-year, but the percentage that Uber kept for itself was lower compared to the same period last year.

人们在 Uber 上花的钱与 Uber 保留的钱之间的差额,就是给司机的部分,这就是为什么我一直在讲,自动驾驶汽车技术对 Uber 来说不仅是一个负面风险,也是一种可能,一个机会。

The difference between what people spend on Uber and what Uber keeps is what goes to the drivers, and that's why I've been talking about how self-driving car technology is not just a negative risk to Uber, but also a possibility, and an opportunity.

这笔钱大约220亿美元,Uber 可以用它来投资自动驾驶汽车。如果一次自动驾驶 Uber 行程的成本低于有司机行程的成本,它实际上可能提升盈利能力,或者可能让 Uber 更具吸引力,因为它能降低客户服务成本,更多客户会选择放弃买车,或者家庭可能会选择只拥有一辆车而不是多辆车。

This could be money, roughly $22 billion, that Uber could use to invest in self-driving cars. If the cost of a self-driving Uber trip is lower than the cost of a trip with a driver, it could actually boost profitability, or it could make Uber more attractive as it can reduce customer service costs , and more customers will choose to forgo a car, or perhaps families will choose to own only one car instead of multiple cars.

所以,它既是巨大的风险,也是同样大的机会。即使在今天的飙升之后,Uber 的售价仍低于其真实价值。在我看来,对于一家拥有如此前景的公司,仅16.3倍的远期市盈率是偏低的估值。

So, it's as much an opportunity as it is a huge risk. Even after today's surge, Uber is still being sold for less than its true value. A forward price-to-earnings ratio of only 16.3 is, in my opinion, a low valuation for a company with such prospects.

我认为最大的原因是,投资者只把自动驾驶汽车技术视为风险,而不是机会。此外,我认为投资者高估了自动驾驶汽车技术在美国和世界各地普及的速度。

I think the biggest reason is that investors view self-driving car technology only as a risk, and not as an opportunity. In addition , I think investors are overestimating how quickly self-driving car technology will be available in the United States and around the world.

我认为 IPO 进程将比 Tesla 等公司及其他自动驾驶技术提供商的投资者所预期的慢得多。官僚程序会显著拖慢这一进程;即使技术已经就绪,立法和获得批准的官僚程序所造成的延迟,也会比技术本身的开发更大。

I think the IPO process will be much slower than investors in companies like Tesla and other self-driving technology providers expect. Bureaucracy will significantly slow this down ; Even if the technology is ready, the bureaucracy of legislation and obtaining approvals will delay things more than the development of the technology itself.

除了考虑未来盈利倍数,我还基于贴现现金流模型更新了对 Uber 的估值。我对该公司的估值为每股125美元,而且即使在录制本视频时股价已上涨超过7.35%之后,根据我用贴现现金流模型所做的估算,它仍被低估了约75%。

In addition to considering the future earnings multiple, I updated my valuation of Uber based on a discounted cash flow model. I valued the company at $125 per share, and even after the stock rose by more than 7.35% at the time of recording this video, it was still undervalued by about 75% according to my estimates using a discounted cash flow model.

所以,回答我在标题中提出的问题:是的,我仍然认为 Uber 是你现在能买入的最好的股票之一。

So, to answer the question I posed in the title , yes, I still think Uber is one of the best stocks you can buy right now.

我对这个排名有相对较高的信念和信心,并且我在2026年11月4日更新了它。

I have a relatively high level of conviction and confidence in this ranking, and I updated it on November 4, 2026.

这个频道对 $UBER 的历次判断

Parkev Tatevosian, CFA 在这只股票上共 8 条判断,这里只列相邻的几条。

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