Ulta 是一家基本面强劲的优质企业，但其当前估值使其吸引力不如以往的入场点。
逐段跳播
这一切都始于 Ulta Beauty，美国最大的美妆产品零售商。可以把它看作一站式目的地，彩妆、护肤、护发、香水以及沙龙服务，全都汇聚在同一屋檐下。他们打造出了每个零售商都梦寐以求的东西：真正的忠诚度，超过4400万名奖励计划会员持续回流。
It all started with Ulta Beauty, the largest beauty product retailer in the United States . Think of it as a one-stop destination for makeup, skincare, haircare, perfumes, and salon services, all under one roof.
They have built what every retailer dreams of. True loyalty with over 44 million rewards program members continuing to return.
美妆产品也是人们购买的最能抵御经济衰退的品类之一。即便手头拮据，人们依然会乐于照顾自己。他们与 Bath & Body Works 的新合作目前已在600多家门店落地。
Beauty products are also one of the things people buy that are most resistant to recession. Even when money is scarce, people will still be keen to take care of themselves. Their new partnership with Bath & Body Works is now active in more than 600 stores.
上个季度销售额达到30亿美元，增长近9%，他们还上调了全年的业绩预期。另一方面，反方观点（悲观看法）认为，同店销售增长已放缓至3.8%。各位，销售额并没有下降3.8%，而是增长放缓至3.8%。
这大约只有去年6.7%增幅的一半，而该股今年仍下跌约8%。
Well, sales reached $3 billion last quarter, an increase of nearly 9%, and they also raised their forecasts for the entire year. On the other hand, the opposing argument (pessimism) is that sales growth at existing stores has slowed to 3.8%.
Guys, sales didn't drop by 3.8%, growth slowed to 3.8%. This represents about half of the 6.7% gain achieved last year, and the stock is still down about 8% this year.
各位，我喜欢 Ulta Beauty 的原因之一是它拥有很高的投资回报率，这意味着每当他们把资金投入业务，都能从中获得良好的回报。这是衡量质量的一个指标。
Guys, one of the reasons I love Ulta Beauty is that they have a high return on investment, which means that whenever they invest money in the business, they get good returns from it. It is a measure of quality.
我喜欢的另一点是它的市值是230亿美元。它作为一家企业的价值是240亿美元。这40亿的差额，抱歉，是270亿。这个差额是40亿美元，它本质上代表了他们的债务。现在你得记住，这其中包括他们自有的零售门店，也包括他们的租约，然而他们去年产生了10亿美元的自由现金流。因此，他们的债务非常合理。
Another thing I love about it is that its market value is $23 billion. Its value as a business is $24 billion . That difference of 4 billion, sorry, 27 billion. That difference is $4 billion , and it essentially represents their debt.
Now you have to remember that this includes their own retail stores. This includes their leases, yet they generated $1 billion in free cash flow last year. Therefore, their debts are very reasonable.
对于一家资本回报率如此之高的公司，其售价略高于自由现金流的20倍。现在，我想提醒大家的是，我在2025年1月作为这场竞赛的一部分买入了 Ulta 的股票。当时的股价约为400美元。现在它的价格是540美元。
For a company with such high returns on capital , it sells for slightly more than 20 times free cash flow. Now, what I want to remind everyone of is that I was buying Ulta shares as part of this contest in January 2025.
The share price at that time was around $400. Its price is now $540.
是的，我喜欢这家公司，但在540美元时它不像在400美元时那样是一笔好买卖。这是要记住的关键点。
Yes, I like the company, but it's not as good a buy at 540 as it was at 400. That's the key point to remember.
除了这里的一个指标，即价格与五年自由现金流之比，其他所有指标都是正确的信号，而我们获取数据的那些分析师预计，未来四到五年每股收益将从29美元增长到43美元。
With the exception of one indicator here, the price versus five- year free cash flow, all are correct signs, and the analysts from whom we obtain the data expect earnings per share to grow from $29 to $43 over the next four or five years .
所以，我相信 Ulta Beauty 的这一切。我认为它会持续20年或30年。我相信它在20年或30年后会创造出比今天更高的收入和利润。当这场竞赛在2025年1月开始的时候，我认为这家公司可以以合理的价格买入。
So, I believe all of this for Ulta Beauty. I think it will last for 20 or 30 years. I believe it will generate higher revenues and profits in 20 or 30 years than it does today.
When this competition began in January 2025, I thought this company could be bought at a reasonable price.
这里的关键点是，这不包括资产负债表，但幸运的是，这里的资产负债表非常好。他们的债务规模合理。因此，我计算了3%、5%和7%的收入增长。接下来，我预计未来十年的利润率和自由现金流是多少？
好，我会看看他们的历史。我会选择9.5%、10%和10.5%。他们能够实现这一切，但显然这并没有保证。
Key point here, this does not include the balance sheet , but fortunately the balance sheet here is very good . They have a reasonable amount of debt in it. Therefore, I calculated revenue growth of 3%, 5% and 7%.
Next, what profit margin and free cash flow do I expect over the next ten years? Okay, I'll look at their history. I would choose 9.5%, 10%, and 10.5%. They can achieve all of this, but obviously it is not guaranteed.
我认为这家公司比标普中的普通公司更好吗？看看资本回报率、它的韧性，以及它在这个行业中的表现有多好。我认为这是一门优质生意吗？是的，我认为如此。因此，我给它最低17倍、最高23倍、平均20倍盈利的溢价。
Do I think this company is better than the average company in the S&P? Well, look at the return on capital, its resilience, and how good it is in this sector. Do I think this is a quality business?
Yes, I think so. Therefore, I give her a bonus of 17 at the minimum, 23 at the maximum, and 20 times the earnings on average.
最后，我9.5%的市场回报率只是告诉我，我认为这家公司今天值多少钱。那么，按下分析按钮。该股目前定价为每股540美元。各位，我给出的低价是455，高价是830，平均价是615。
这意味着，如果我所有的平均假设都得到满足，基于今天的价格，我可以预期约11.3%的回报，而不是一年半前我开始竞赛时想要的那个价格。
Finally, my market return of 9.5% simply tells me what value I believe this company is worth today. So, press the analyze button. The stock is currently priced at $540 per share.
Guys, I have a low price of 455 , a high price of 830, and an average price of 615. That means if all my average assumptions are met, I can expect a return of about 11.3% based on today's price, not the price I wanted a year and a half ago when I started competing.
这个频道对 $ULTA 的历次判断
Everything Money 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。