UNH 强劲的季度表现、2026 年调整后每股收益指引上调至至少 20.50 美元、MCR 降至 88.4%、营业利润率升至 5.8%，显示其转型正在见效。谨慎看多：最坏的时候可能已经过去，但预计两周内只会缓慢上行至 400 至 405 的阻力位，而非强劲涨至 600 美元。
逐段跳播
我们来看一下UnitedHealth的年度走势图。在年初那波下跌之后，它已经成功收复了失地。它连续三个季度交出了强劲的财报，同时顺利推进其转型计划。我们已经从年内高点回落，但在开盘前，我们实际上还是标普500指数中涨幅最大的股票之一，不过现在情况已经变了。
我们下跌了0.6%。它今早也还在提振道指，但没有我提到的那么多。我们已经转入负值区间。
Let's focus on UnitedHealth 's annual chart . It has managed to recover its position after that decline earlier in the year. It has delivered three consecutive strong quarterly earnings reports while successfully continuing its transformation plans .
We have retreated from the year's highs, but we were actually among the biggest gainers in the S&P 500 index before the market opened, but the situation has changed now. We have decreased by 6 tenths of a percent.
It was also helping the Dow this morning, but not as much as I mentioned. We have moved into the negative range.
至少开盘前，United被认为是明显的赢家。但正如你所说，我们已经失去了很大一部分这种强势。看起来仍有大量证据表明，这一更广泛的转变正在开始见效。坦率地说，这是一个关于利润率和财务指引的故事。
营收仍然相对缓慢，但回顾一下真正起作用的因素，盈利结果远好于预期。我们看到调整后每股收益为4.69美元，远高于预期。财务指引再次被上调。他们已将2026年调整后盈利预测上调至至少20.50美元。
这明显高于此前每股19.50至20美元的区间。医疗成本趋势有所改善。我们看到Medicare赔付率（MCR）从去年的89.9%降至88.4%。这也好于预期，表明盈利能力更强、成本控制更好。
利润率已大幅回升。我们看到营业利润率从去年的约3.8%扩大至5.8%，这再次表明这些转型努力取得了进一步成效。他们的两家主要公司也都超出预期。我们看到United Healthcare和Optum在营业利润上全面超出预期。
他们提到了对人工智能的投资，以及基于价值的医疗、定价纪律，并退出了一些无利可图的合同，这些都有助于稳定其整体盈利能力。然而，营收同比下降约0.4%，这是该公司营收罕见的收缩。会员数量也在继续减少。
我们看到他们本季度末拥有4830万会员。这比前几年要少，因为他们正在退出那些无利可图或利润较低的业务。保险收入与去年相比也下降了约0.8%，但Optum的增长仍然相对不均衡。主要担忧之一是医疗成本仍然高企。
管理层表示，尽管本季度趋势有所改善，但医疗利用率和专科药物成本仍高于历史平均水平。利润率改善的部分原因也来自准备金方面更有利的发展。本季度受益于约6.1亿美元的正向准备金调整，许多人可能认为这在整体利润率改善方面不太可重复、也不太具有内生性。
因此，主要的争论在于医疗成本是否会持续高企并继续对其利润率构成压力。他们实际上展现的恰恰相反。医疗成本改善，利润率扩大，利润大幅超出预期。我认为悲观者指出的是会员数量持续下降以及营收增长基本停滞的趋势。
不过，目前焦点似乎更多地放在利润率的持续回升和未来盈利的强劲上。上调展望也是一个关键且重要的结论。尽管有一些缓慢的趋势值得注意，但我认为对于一家处于充满挑战且易受政府干预的行业、同时仍是私营医疗最大出口商的公司来说，初步反应是合乎逻辑的，因此它是更广泛医疗趋势的重要指标。
股价小幅下行，但我要说，对于一家正在证明其转型开始见效的公司来说，这是一份强劲的财报，Sam。
United was considered the clear winner, at least before the market opened. But as you said, we have lost a lot of that strength. It appears that there is still plenty of evidence that this broader shift is beginning to bear fruit.
This was frankly a story of margins and financial guidelines. Revenues are still relatively slow, but to review what has actually worked, there have been much better-than-expected earnings results.
We saw adjusted earnings per share of $4.69. It is much higher than expected. Financial guidance has been raised again. They have raised their adjusted earnings forecast for 2026 to at least $20.50.
This is significantly higher than the previous range of $ 19.50 to $20 per share. Medical cost trends have improved . We saw the Medicare Retention Rate (MCR) drop to 88.4% from 89.9% last year.
That was also better than expected , indicating stronger profitability and better cost control. The margins have recovered significantly. We saw operating margins expand to 5.8% from just around 3.8% last year, again indicating further evidence of these transformation efforts .
Both of their main companies also exceeded expectations. We saw United Healthcare and Optum exceed operating profit expectations across the board. They cited investment in artificial intelligence, as well as value-based care, pricing discipline, and exiting some unprofitable contracts that help stabilize their overall profitability.
However, revenue fell by about 4 tenths of a percent year-on-year, representing a rare contraction in the company's revenue. Membership numbers also continue to shrink. We saw that they ended the quarter with 48.3 million members.
That was less than in previous years, as they were exiting those unprofitable or less profitable businesses. Insurance revenues also declined by about 0.8% compared to last year, but Optom's growth remains relatively uneven.
One of the main concerns is that medical costs remain high. The administration stated that healthcare utilization and specialty drug costs remain above historical averages, even if trends improved during the quarter.
Part of the margin improvement also came from more favorable development of reserves. The quarter benefited from positive reserve adjustments of approximately 610 million, which many may see as less repeatable and less organic in terms of overall margin improvements.
Therefore, the main debate was about whether medical costs would remain high and continue to put pressure on their profit margins . They actually showed the exact opposite. Medical costs improved, margins expanded, and profits exceeded expectations by a significant margin.
I think the pessimists are pointing to further trends in declining membership and essentially stable revenue growth . However, at the moment the focus seems to be a little more on the continued margin recovery and future earnings strength.
The raised outlook is also a key and important conclusion. Although there are slow trends to note, I think the initial reaction was logical for a company operating in a challenging and government-intervention-prone sector that is still the largest exporter of private healthcare, so it is an important indicator of broader healthcare trends.
Modest moves towards the downside , but I would say this was a strong report for a company proving its transformation is starting to pay off, Sam.
是的，我们确实看到了他们努力的成果，而且我认为，正如你提到的，医疗赔付率（MCR）一直是分析师们非常密切关注的东西，这非常重要，我们显然已经看到这方面有所改善。
Yes, we are certainly seeing the fruits of their efforts, and I think it is really important that the Medical Cost Ratio ( MCR), as you mentioned, has been something that analysts have been focusing on very closely, and we have clearly seen some improvement there.
这很有意思，Tim。我的意思是，这家公司的股价达到600美元还没过多久。得益于最近三个季度财报的强劲表现，我们已经能够收复部分涨幅。那么，你怎么看我们现在看到的走势？我们已经转跌，你能以一笔商业交易为例给我们解释一下吗？
That's interesting, Tim. I mean, it hasn't been that long since this company's stock was worth $600. We have been able to recover some of the gains thanks to the strength of the last three quarterly reports.
So, what do you think of the movement we are seeing now? We've turned negative, could you explain a business deal to us as an example?
我认为我们看到该股正面临一个上方阻力区，就在400关口略上方，大约在405附近，这非常重要。如果你看长期走势图，你会发现它已经多次触及该水平，但都难以突破。因此，我确实认为今天的利润全面来看非常好。
某些方面可能略低一些，但整体非常好。我们看到该股在当天开盘时向400逼近，现在又回落到这个水平。我认为未来几周内我们会看到它回到400至405附近。因此，我采取谨慎看涨的立场，买入10月底（即本月30日）到期、行权价在400至405之间的看涨期权价差，成本肯定低于两美元。
如果我们看到预期中向405水平的上涨，我对这个风险回报比感到满意。我们还可以针对它卖出短期看涨期权价差，以进一步降低这笔交易的成本。因此，我不认为UNH股价会强势冲向600美元的历史高点。
不过，我认为未来最糟糕的时期可能已经过去。因此，我认为未来两周缓慢上涨是可能的，尤其是考虑到我们开始看到一些AI股票受到负面影响。资金正流向贝塔更低、估值更低的股票，比如UNH，正如我提到的，它连续三个季度盈利超预期，而股价在此期间一直横盘。因此，从估值角度看，该股也变得相当便宜。
I think we see the stock facing an upper resistance zone , which is very important just above the 400 level, at around 405. If you look at the long- term chart, you will find that it has reached that level several times, but has had difficulty surpassing it.
Therefore, I certainly believe that today's profits were very good across the board. It may have been a little lower in some aspects, but it's very good overall. We saw the stock heading towards 400 at the start of the day, and now it's falling back to this level.
I think we will see a return to around the 400 to 405 level sometime in the coming weeks. Therefore, I am taking a cautiously bullish position, buying the spread of call options between 400 and 405 for the end of October, which is the 30th of the month, for definitely less than two dollars .
I am impressed with the risk-reward if we see that expected rise towards the 405 level. We could also sell short-term call option spreads against that to further reduce the cost of the trade.
Therefore, I don't think UNH stock will strongly head towards that record high of 600. However, I think the worst may be over for it going forward. Therefore, I think a slow rise over the next two weeks is possible, especially given the fact that we are starting to see some AI stocks being negatively affected.
Cash flow is being transferred to stocks with lower beta and lower valuations, such as UNH, which, as I mentioned, has outperformed in earnings for three consecutive quarters, while the stock has remained sideways during that period.
Therefore, the stock became fairly cheap in terms of valuation as well.
这个频道对 $UNH 的历次判断
Schwab Network 在这只股票上共 2 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。