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$UNH

$UNH · Mark Roussin, CPA · 2026-11-05

AI 摘要 · Mark Roussin, CPA

买入 UNH 以获取医疗保健板块敞口,理由是估值:公允价值约为每股540美元,比市价高出30%以上,远期市盈率为17倍,而五年均值接近20倍。他预期在管理层的转型计划下,情况将趋于稳定、医疗成本更可预测、利润回升;随后可能迎来盈利改善和估值倍数提升。监管与运营风险仍然存在。

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《3 Stocks I Just BOUGHT》
Mark Roussin, CPA发布 2026-11-05 · 14 段内容
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14 段内容
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第一家公司是一家医疗保健公司,我认为在医疗保健板块表现非常好的时候,它提供了有吸引力的估值。

The first company is a healthcare company that I believe offers an attractive valuation at a time when the healthcare sector was performing very well.

我们今天要看的第一只股票是一只风格类似巴菲特的股票,那就是UnitedHealth。

The first stock we will look at today is a stock that resembles Buffett's style, and that is UnitedHealth .

好,话不多说,我们来看第一只股票,也就是UnitedHealth,代码UNH。这笔买入与我们稍后要讨论的另外两只略有不同,因为这是一只医疗保健相关的股票。

Okay, with that said, let's move on to our first stock, which is UnitedHealth. Arrow symbol UNH. This purchase is slightly different from the other two that we will discuss later, as this is a healthcare-related stock.

UnitedHealth经历了一段非常艰难的时期。它的医疗成本上升,给盈利能力带来了压力。公司面临似乎一直存在的监管审查。人们担心它在Medicare Advantage计划方面的工作,以及Optom内部一些业务的表現。

UnitedHealth has gone through a very difficult period . It has seen a rise in medical costs, which has put pressure on profitability. The company faced regulatory oversight that seemed to be ever-present.

There were concerns about her work in the Medicare Advantage program and the performance of some operations within Optom.

在公司第三季度财报中,营收达到约1130亿美元。调整后每股收益达到每股4.69美元。管理层将全年调整后每股收益预期上调至至少每股20.50美元。

During the company's third-quarter earnings results, revenues reached approximately $113 billion. Adjusted earnings per share reached $4.69 per share . Management raised its full-year adjusted earnings forecast to at least $20.50 per share.

这一点很重要,因为它表明公司稳定盈利能力的努力开始显现进展。UnitedHealth公布的调整后Medicare覆盖率约为88.4%。与去年的89.9%相比有所改善,所以这令人鼓舞。

This is important because it indicates that the company's efforts to stabilize profitability are beginning to show progress. UnitedHealth reported an adjusted Medicare coverage rate of approximately 88.4%.

This is an improvement compared to last year, when they scored 89.9%, so this is encouraging.

我不需要UnitedHealth成为一家高增长的科技公司,这笔投资才能成功。我只需要业务稳定下来,医疗成本趋势变得更可预测,利润回升。

I don't need UnitedHealth to become a high-growth technology company for this investment to succeed. I just need the business to stabilize , for medical cost trends to become more predictable, and for profits to recover.

如果这发生了,而且我相信会发生的,投资者就有机会利用盈利改善和估值倍数可能提升的机会。我们可以看到,UnitedHealth股价在过去一年上涨了超过20%,目前市值约为3600亿美元。

If that happens, and I believe it will, there is an opportunity for investors to take advantage of improved earnings and the potential for a higher valuation multiple. we can see that UnitedHealth shares have risen by more than 20% over the past year, and its market value is currently around $360 billion.

目前的合理价格约为每股540美元,这意味着比今天的市场价格高出30%以上。从盈利预测来看,分析师预计公司明年每股收益为23.29美分,使该股的远期市盈率仅为17倍;相比之下,UNH的五年平均值接近20倍,更高。

the current fair price is around $540 per share, which means more than 30% above today's market price. Looking at the earnings forecast, analysts expect the company to earn 23.29 cents next year, giving the stock a forward price-to-earnings ratio of just 17 times; This compares to UNH's five-year average, which is nearly 20 times higher .

所以,我们的营收在增长,盈利能力在改善,但该股的交易价格却低于其历史平均水平。

So, we have growing revenues and improving profitability, yet the stock is trading at a discount to its historical average.

除了评级之外,我还喜欢UnitedHealth在医疗保健多个领域运营这一点。Care提供医疗保险;Optum经营医疗服务、药品福利和其他相关业务。这创造了一个大型的综合医疗保健平台,但也带来了监管和运营上的复杂性,这也是最大的风险之一。

Aside from the rating, I also like the fact that UnitedHealth operates in multiple areas of healthcare. Care provides health insurance; Optum operates in healthcare services, pharmacy benefits, and other related businesses.

This creates a large, integrated healthcare platform, but it also creates regulatory and operational complexities, which is one of the biggest risks as well.

一直有人呼吁改变大型医疗保健组织的运营方式,任何重大的监管变化都可能影响UnitedHealth的盈利能力。因此,我买入这家公司并不是因为我认为风险已经消失;而是因为我相信,如果管理层能够继续实施转型计划,我买入价格对应的估值提供了一个有意思的机会。

There have been calls for changes to how large healthcare organizations operate, and any significant regulatory changes could affect UnitedHealth's profitability. Therefore, I am not buying this company because I believe the risks have disappeared; Rather, I am buying it because I believe the valuation at my purchase price offers an interesting opportunity if management can continue to implement the transformation plan .

归根结底:我用UNH来增加我在医疗保健板块的敞口,但投资逻辑基于稳定的盈利,而不仅仅是股价反弹。这里看一下我投资社区内的一条交易提醒,当时我在9月底以375美元买入了UNH。所以,我这个仓位已经盈利约7%。

The bottom line is: I use UNH to increase my exposure to the healthcare sector, but the investment thesis is based on stable earnings, not just a rebound in the share price. Here's a look at a trading alert from within my investment community when I bought UNH at the end of September at $375.

So, I am already making a profit of approximately 7% in this position .

所以,这就是我最近买入的三只股票:UnitedHealth、Sterling和Vertief。UnitedHealth代表着基层医疗转型的机会,以及一个不错的价格评估。

So, these are the three stocks I recently bought: UnitedHealth, Sterling, and Vertief. UnitedHealth represents an opportunity for transformation in primary healthcare and a good price assessment.

观察点

即将发布的财报中的医疗成本趋势与利润复苏情况,以及管理层转型计划的进展
医疗成本趋稳且利润回升
未来几个季度公司财报
支持看涨论点

这个频道对 $UNH 的历次判断

Mark Roussin, CPA 在这只股票上共 2 条判断,这里只列相邻的几条。

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