Visa 是一个持久的支付网络，从庞大交易量中抽取小额分成，且不承担信用风险，应能挺过颠覆冲击；但在营收增长10%的情况下市盈率高达33至34倍，其涨幅来自估值扩张，因此目前太贵、不宜买入；他会在市盈率降至约15倍的折价时买入。
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Visa。为什么你会想持有这只股票？为什么这只股票大概率应该出现在你的关注列表里，用来寻找机会，但不一定是今天买入？
Visa. Why would you want to own this stock and why should this stock probably be on your watchlist for opportunities, but not necessarily for buying today?
嗯，它受到市场的高度认可。这也是我个人不持有它的原因，无论是它还是Mastercard我都不持有。它是一个支付费用网关。它们从巨大的交易量中抽取一小部分比例，而不承担信用风险。
我很喜欢这家公司。一旦发生崩盘，消费会放缓，但人们仍会继续使用他们的卡。这项业务是盈利的。它们其实并不需要流动性。它们可以继续经营下去。
Well, it is highly regarded by the market. That's why I don't own it personally, neither it nor a Mastercard. It is a payment fees gateway. They get a small percentage of a huge transaction volume without taking on credit risk.
I love this company. In the event of a collapse, spending slows down, but people continue to use their cards. The business is profitable. They don't really need liquidity. They can continue.
是的，我知道加密货币爱好者会说：但是，但是，还有所有这些其他的东西。我相信它们的竞争优势——我知道你知道我讨厌谈论竞争优势——在于它们抵御技术颠覆的能力远超一些人的想象。我意识到存在风险。
有监管。费用面临压力。有各种各样的新产品。我相信它们是长期幸存者，如果我能以折价买到它们，它们会排在我名单的最前面。
And yes, I know cryptocurrency enthusiasts will say: But hey, but hey, there are all these other things . I believe their competitive advantage—and I know you know I hate talking about competitive advantages —is that their ability to survive technological disruption is far greater than some people realize.
I realize there are risks. There are regulations. There is pressure on fees. There are all kinds of new products. I believe they are long-term survivors, and if I could get them at a discounted price, they would be at the top of my list.
是的，在我们录制时，这只股票大约以33到34倍的市盈率交易。我同意，考虑到它们的营收以10%的复合年增长率增长，这是一个相当高的价格。
Yes, the stock is trading at approximately 33 to 34 times earnings at the time of our recording . I agree that this is a rather high price when you consider the fact that they have achieved revenue growth at a compound annual rate of 10%.
再说一次，这是又一家这样的公司，而且这样的公司有很多。我们今天会谈到其中两家。它们的股市表现令人惊叹，但当你真正去看是什么在驱动这种表现时，实际上是估值的扩张，而不是营收增长，甚至也不是利润率扩张。简单说，市场越来越喜欢这只股票。
Again , it's another one of those companies, and there are many of them. We'll talk about two of them today. Their stock market performance is amazing, but when you actually look at what's driving that performance, it's actually the expansion of multiples and not revenue growth or even margin expansion.
Simply put, the market loves the stock more and more.
所以，在波动性这一边，我非常看好稳定币将在未来占据重要地位这一想法。我认为这会在幕后发生。很可能你不会拥有加密货币钱包之类的东西。简单说，资金不再通过信用卡网络从A点转移到B点，而是通过稳定币网络转移。
过去两年在这方面有意思的是，创新的发生比我以为可能的要慢，因此像Visa和Mastercard这样的公司，在那个未来里可以扮演与今天类似的角色。
So, on the side of volatility, I am very optimistic about the idea that stablecoins will be a big part of the future. I think that will happen in the background. Most likely, you won't own a cryptocurrency wallet or anything like that .
Simply put, instead of money moving from point "A" to point " B" via credit card networks , it will move via stablecoin networks. What has been interesting over the past two years in this regard is that innovation has happened more slowly than I thought was possible, so that companies like Visa and Mastercard could play a similar role to the one they play today in that future.
如果你真正去看它们为自己的工作收取的费用，其中大部分都流向了银行。大部分，如你所知，其他费用中的很大一部分流向了处理公司，也就是像Square或Stripe这样遍布全球的公司。
如果排除这两项费用，留给Visa的就很少了。但它们凭借这个小小的图形结构做了大量工作。嗯，这部分可能会保留下来，而你干脆不用银行，这样交易费突然就变成1%而不是3%。这可能是对未来样貌的一瞥，也可能什么都不会改变，但我认为你说得对，无论哪种情况，Visa大概率都有不错的未来。
If you actually look at the fees they charge for their work, most of it goes to the banks. Most , as you know, a large portion of the other fees goes to the processing company, i.e., companies like Square or Stripe around the world.
If you exclude these two fees, very little will be left for Visa. But they do a lot of work with this small graphics structure. Well, this part might remain, and you simply do without banks, so that suddenly the transaction fee becomes 1% instead of 3%.
This may be a glimpse of what the future will look like, or perhaps nothing will change, but I think you are right that Visa probably has a good future either way .
如果你能以15倍利润而不是34倍利润买到它，那是一笔非常好的交易。金融服务行业长期以来的历史教训之一是，成熟公司可以与创新型公司一道使用并利用技术。所以，是的，它们的利润率可能会面临一些压力，但它们的开支也可能因同样的力量而下降，通过整合技术来降低成本。
母公司通常从金融服务中获利。我认为支付系统长期以来一直如此。
If you can get it for 15 times the profit instead of 34 times, that's a very good deal . One of the historical lessons from the financial services sector over time is that established companies can use and leverage technology alongside innovative companies.
So, yes, their profit margins may come under some pressure, but their expenses may also decrease thanks to these same forces, by integrating technology to reduce their costs. The parent company usually profits from financial services.
I think this has been the case with payment systems for a long time.
是的，看看事情如何发展会非常有意思，但这是另一只我尚未持有、也从未持有过的股票，部分原因是它一直太贵了。
Yes, it will be very interesting to see how things develop, but it is another stock that I do not own yet and have never owned, partly because it has always been too expensive .
因此，2%流向银行和Visa。
Therefore, 2% goes to the banks and Visa.