VICI被低估；基于2.2%的盈利增长，约28.63美元的合理价值意味着约26%的上行空间，但风险包括租户集中度和更高的再融资成本。
逐段跳播
第一只股票是VICI Properties，许多投资者开始对它感到不耐烦。他们对所看到的回报极为不满，尤其是在过去一年里。
The first stock is VICI Properties, a stock that many investors are beginning to feel impatient about. They are extremely dissatisfied with the returns they have seen, particularly during the past year.
这家房地产投资信托（REIT）的股价已下跌29.5%，使其初始股息率达到创纪录的约8.2%。换个角度看，过去几年的平均收益率更接近5%至6%的区间。因此，与我们在过去五年看到的平均水平相比，8%的回报率是不合理的。
The share price of the Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) has fallen by 29.5% , giving it a record initial dividend yield of around 8.2%. To put this in perspective, the average yield over the past few years has been closer to the 5-6% range.
Therefore, an 8% return is unreasonable compared to the average we have seen over the past five years .
如果我们看看这里列出的VICI，是的，我们可以看到过去一年股价表现不佳；但在过去三年、五年和七年里，每股调整后营运现金流以非常强劲的速度增长，而且预计这种增长在未来仍将以强劲速度持续。
If we look at VICI, listed here, yes, we can see the poor performance of the stock price over the past year; But over the past three, five, and seven years, adjusted operating cash flow per share has grown at a very strong rate , and this growth is expected to continue at a strong rate in the future.
事实上，如果我们在ticker.com上更仔细地看这一点，你可以看到未来几年每股调整后营运资金的预测。增长预计大部分将保持在2%至3%至4%的区间内。
In fact, if we take a closer look at this on ticker.com, you can see the adjusted operating money projections per share over the next few years. Growth is expected to continue in the 2-3-4% range for the most part.
请记住，房地产投资信托的股息是从调整后营运资金中支付的。因此，最终它们需要产生超过每股股息的每股调整后营运现金流（AFFO），而VICI在过去几年里做得很好。
Remember that dividends for real estate investment trusts are paid from adjusted operating funds. Therefore, ultimately, they need to generate adjusted cash flows from operations (AFFO) per share that exceed dividends per share , which is something VICI has done well over the past few years.
他们的目标股息支付率约为70%至75%，并且他们完全遵守了这一目标。那么，在股价持续下跌的同时，房地产投资信托（REIT）每股调整后营运现金流（AFFO）的增长对我们意味着什么？
这意味着估值倍数已大幅下降，估值变得更具吸引力。
Their target dividend payout ratio is approximately 70-75%, and they have fully adhered to it. So, what does the growth in adjusted cash flows from operations ( AFFO) per share in a real estate investment trust ( REIT) mean to us at the same time as the share price continues to fall?
Well, this means that the rating multiplier has decreased significantly, and the rating has become more attractive.
事实上，五年平均估值倍数约为13.8。而现在，其股价仅为9.05，是过去五年来的最低水平。现在重要的是准确判断这为何发生，以评估这究竟是一个机会，还是仅仅是一次大幅下跌。
In fact, the average five- year rating multiple is about 13.8. Now, their shares are trading at just 9.05, their lowest level in the past five years. It is now important to determine precisely why this happened in order to assess whether this is an opportunity or just a sharp decline.
在关于VICI Properties的悲观者中，我观察到的一个常见论调是，他们动辄就指出拉斯维加斯存在的问题。
One of the common theories I observe among pessimists about VICI Properties is that they are quick to point to problems in Las Vegas.
拉斯维加斯在2025年的游客流量出现了相对明显的下降，但我们也注意到，2026年迄今游客数量已经企稳。2026年的增长在游客总数和酒店入住率方面几乎保持不变，但与此同时，我们注意到博彩收入略有增长，酒店客房数量也略有增加。总体而言，各项数据仍非常接近2025年的水平。
Las Vegas experienced a relatively significant decrease in visitor traffic in 2025, but we also note that tourist numbers have stabilized so far in 2026. Growth in 2026 has been almost constant in terms of total visitor numbers and hotel occupancy , but at the same time, we note a slight increase in gambling revenue and a slight increase in the number of hotel rooms.
Overall, the figures remained very close to the 2025 levels.
我们经常提到VICI Properties的商业模式，因为它是一家房地产投资信托。该公司并不直接受到游客数量下降的影响；对它而言，唯一重要的是租金的持续收取。
We often refer to VICI Properties' business model, as it is a real estate investment trust. The company is not directly affected by the decrease in the number of visitors; all that matters to it is the continued collection of rents.
拉斯维加斯的游客流量需要出现显著且持续的下降，VICI才会受到实质性影响。然而，租户方面肯定仍存在风险，这正是我们应该更广泛地讨论此事的地方。
We need a significant and prolonged decrease in visitor traffic in Las Vegas for VICI to be tangibly affected. However, there is certainly still a risk to tenants, and this is where we should discuss the matter more broadly.
虽然其入住率确实达到100%，这相当了不起，但100%的净三重净租赁意味着租户承担了很大一部分成本，从而为VICI创造了高度可预测的现金流。
While it is true that their occupancy rate is 100%, which is quite remarkable, the 100% net triple leases mean that tenants bear a large portion of the costs, creating highly predictable cash flows for VICI.
然而，我们注意到，仅其最大的几家租户就约占其总租金收入的70%。投资者的担忧正是从这里开始的，原因如下：Caesars目前正在寻求一笔私有化交易。MGM曾有过类似的交易，但似乎暂时已被撤回。
However , we note that their largest tenants alone account for approximately 70% of their total rental income. This is where investors' concerns begin, and here's why: Caesars is currently seeking a deal to go private.
MGM had a similar deal, but it appears to have been pulled for the time being.
然而，Caesars仍是其投资组合中最大的单一投资，占总租金收入的38%。问题在于，如果该公司私有化，投资者将突然失去查看租金覆盖倍数的能力。
However , Caesars remains the largest single investment in their portfolio, representing 38% of total rental income. The problem is that if the company goes private, investors will suddenly lose the ability to see rent coverage ratios.
归根结底，估值倍数由两个因素决定：第一，未来现金流的预期增长率；第二，这些现金流的可预测性。因此，如果我们对这类占现金流38%的租户的租金覆盖情况失去清晰度，投资者自然愿意支付更低的估值倍数。
Ultimately, the valuation multipliers are determined based on two factors: first, the expected growth rate of future cash flows, and second, the predictability of these cash flows.
Therefore, if we lose clarity on rent coverage for this type of tenant, who represents 38% of cash flows, it is natural that investors would be willing to pay a lower valuation multiple.
此外，我们注意到，VICI Properties近期股息派发的增幅明显低于历史平均水平，仅为2.2%。虽然对于一家产生8.2%回报的房地产投资信托（REIT）而言，2.2%的股息增长率相对强劲，但这并非历史上较高的股息增长率。
Furthermore, we note that the recent increase in VICI Properties' dividend payout was significantly lower than historical averages, amounting to only 2.2%. While a 2.2% dividend growth rate is relatively strong for a real estate investment trust (REIT) that generates an 8.2% return, this is not a historically high dividend growth rate .
原因是什么？归根结底，可以归纳为三种可能。第一，该股的调整后营运现金流预测将被下调。目前，至少从预测来看，增长依然强劲。
What is the reason? Ultimately, it can be summarized in three possible options. First, the adjusted operating cash flow forecast for the stock will be revised downwards. Currently, growth remains strong, at least according to forecasts.
第二，这可能意味着将目标股息派发率相对于调整后营运现金流下调。我们稍后会回到这个话题，但第三点是，管理层预计调整后每股营运现金流的增长将在2026年后放缓，并依据其长期展望而非仅今年的展望来决定股息增长。
Secondly, this could mean reducing the targeted dividend payout ratio to adjusted operating cash flows . We will return to this topic shortly, but the third point is that management expects adjusted per-share operating cash flow growth to slow after 2026, and determines dividend growth based on its long-term outlook, not just this year’s outlook.
值得注意的是，今年的预测显示，调整后每股经营现金流约为3.3%。那么，原因是什么呢？我们再一次需要理解国债价格如何总体上影响房地产投资信托（REIT）市场。
It is worth noting that the forecast for this year indicates an adjusted operating cash flow per share of approximately 3.3%. Now , what is the reason for that? Okay, once again, we need to understand how Treasury bond prices affect the real estate investment trust (REIT) market in general.
让我们看看VICI Properties的资产负债表。这是一个投资级的预算。他们处于目标杠杆率之内，但我们注意到的一件事是，他们拥有分层的债务结构。其99%的债务是固定利率的，这在利率上升时是一件好事。
Let's look at the balance sheet of VICI Properties. It is an investment-grade budget. They are within the target leverage ratio, but one of the things we notice is that they have a tiered debt structure . 99% of their debt is fixed-interest, which is a positive thing when interest rates rise.
但他们将不得不开始为这些债务再融资，而且很可能会以更高的利率进行，因为利率持续上升。这将减缓2026年之后调整后每股经营现金流的增长，因为利息支出将持续上升。
But they will have to start refinancing these debts, and they will likely do so at higher interest rates because interest rates continue to rise. This will slow the growth of adjusted per- share operating cash flow after 2026 because interest expenses will continue to rise.
那么，另一种可能性是，他们会降低调整后经营现金流（AFFO）的目标。他们为什么这样做呢？这一点非常重要，要记住。在观看本视频中其他REIT时也要牢记这一点，因为REIT最终可以通过两种不同的方式增长。
第一种是继续借贷，但他们显然不想过度负债。当利率上升时，借贷变得不那么有吸引力，就像现在这样。
Now, once again, the other possibility is that they will lower their target of adjusted operating cash flows (AFFO ). Why do they do that? Okay, once again, it's very important to remember this.
Keep this in mind as well when looking at the other REITs in this video , as REITs can ultimately grow in two different ways. The first is to continue borrowing, but they clearly do not want to become over- indebted.
Borrowing becomes less attractive when interest rates rise, as they are now.
第二种选择是发行股票。如你所见，这很常见。它并不一定像大多数人想的那么糟糕。这取决于他们从股票发行所筹集的资金中获得的投资回报。
The second option is issuing shares. As you can see, this is common. It's not necessarily as bad as most people think. It depends on the return on investment they receive from the capital raised from the share issuance.
但目前，VICI正面临困境。为什么？借贷成本已大幅上升。与此同时，发行股票的成本也增加了。这是为什么？因为股价去年下跌了约30%。
But at the moment, VICI is facing a difficult situation. Why? Well, once again , the cost of borrowing has risen significantly. At the same time, the cost of issuing shares also increased.
Why is this? Well, because the stock price fell by about 30% last year.
那么，他们对这个问题的解决方案是什么？一个解决方案是保留更大一部分现金流来为增长提供资金。要做到这一点，他们将不得不降低其目标派息金额（AFFO），这最终意味着不会以同样的历史速度增加股息。
So, what is their solution to this problem? Well, one solution is to retain a larger portion of their cash flow to fund growth. To do this, they will have to reduce their Target Amount to Payout (AFFO ), which ultimately means not increasing dividends at the same historical rate.
因此，了解房地产投资信托（REIT）所处的更广泛环境，对于理解它们目前正在做出的决策至关重要。但综合以上所有内容，房地产投资信托的有趣之处在于：如果我们打开股票估值表（可在tickerdata.com获取，链接见描述），然后输入VICI代码，并从股息贴现模型的角度来看，我们会发现该基金目前的表现令人惊讶。
Therefore, it is essential to understand the broader environment in which Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) operate in order to understand the decisions they are currently making.
But with all of the above, here's what's interesting about real estate investment trusts. If we turn to the equity valuation sheet , available on tickerdata.com (link in description), and then enter the VICI code, and look at it from the perspective of the dividend discount model , we will find that the fund’s current performance is surprising.
显然，目标股息支付率在指定范围内，因为调整后每股经营现金流（AFFO）轻松覆盖股息支付。调整后每股净经营现金流预计在未来一年内在此范围内增长约3.3%。
Clearly, the targeted dividend payout ratio is within the specified range, as the adjusted operating cash flow (AFFO) per share easily covers dividend payments. Adjusted net operating cash flow per share is expected to grow by about 3.3% over the next year within this range.
但如果我们看贴现盈利模型，并假设盈利永久仅增长1%，我们会发现该股已经被低估。若利润增长2%，则有上涨22%的潜力。若利润增长3%，与当前价格相比，上涨潜力可达45%。
But if we look at the discounted earnings model, and assume earnings growth of only 1% permanently, we will find that the stock is already undervalued . With profits growing by 2%, there is potential for a 22% increase.
With profits growing by 3%, the potential for an increase of up to 45% compared to current prices.
所以，我再说一遍，我不想过于乐观。最近一次盈利增长仅为2.2%，如果这一速度持续下去，公允价值将在28.63美元左右，这意味着与当前价格相比约有26%的上涨潜力。
So, I repeat, I don't want to be overly optimistic . The most recent increase in earnings was only 2.2%, and if this rate continues, the fair value would be around $28.63, which means a potential increase of approximately 26% compared to current prices.
除非我们看到大型租户出现重大问题，否则我认为这种密集抛售已经过头了。
Unless we see major problems with large tenants, I think the intensive selling is overdone.
因此，VICI Properties所采取的解决方案是以较小的百分比增加股息支付，以维持更大的现金流。
Therefore, the solution VICI Properties resorted to was to increase dividend payouts by a smaller percentage to maintain a larger cash flow.
这个频道对 $VICI 的历次判断
Dividendology 在这只股票上共 5 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。