$VRSN · Value Investing with Sven Carlin, Ph.D. · 2026-11-07
说话者持有 VRSN，尽管其五天内上涨 20–25% 也不会卖出；他正在提升其在组合中的地位。理由：每股收益指引得到确认，节省从 5 亿增至 10 亿，九个月自由现金流达到 20 亿，且第四季度 5 亿回购恢复（年化约 20 亿，回购收益率 7%）。他预计 7–8 倍市盈率不会持续，并提到 2027–2028 年将有实质性改善，但警告增长较慢的季度或衰退可能使股价下跌。他将持有至合适的价值释放。
逐段跳播
这次我们从更有趣的一面开始，Viserve，它刚刚公布了财报，过去五天股价上涨了 24%。我在我的股市研究平台上的多元化投资组合中持有这只股票，并且我已经在那里更新了它。
This time we'll start from the more interesting side with Viserve, which has just announced its earnings, and the stock has risen by 24% over the past five days . I own the stock in my diversified portfolio on my stock market research platform and I have updated it there.
让我们看看“Vicerve”。这是我从 Michael Perry 那里引用的一只，他上周也讨论过，基于与 Global Payments 收购传闻类似的估值，Vicerve 至少值 100 到 120。
Let's take a look at "Vicerve". This is one I quoted from Michael Perry, who also discussed last week how, based on a similar valuation to the Global Payments takeover rumor, Vicerve would be worth at least 100 to 120.
每股收益指引得到确认。节省额从 5 亿增加到 10 亿，前九个月自由现金流达到 20 亿，这非常积极。也许最重要的是，他们将在第四季度恢复 5 亿美元的股票回购。这意味着按年计算为 20 亿，即 7% 的回购收益率。
如果这种情况持续下去，市盈率不会停留在 8 倍。
The earnings per share guidance was confirmed. Savings have increased from 500 million to 1 billion, and free cash flow reached 2 billion for the first nine months, which is very positive.
Perhaps most importantly, they are resuming $ 500 million in buybacks in the fourth quarter. This means 2 billion on an annual basis or a 7% repurchase yield. The price-to-earnings ratio will not remain at eight if this situation continues.
但总的来说，一个好问题是 CEO 是谁，以及现在的重点是增长还是节省？重点是两者兼顾。所以我听的那场电话会议里有非常务实的讨论。
But overall, a good question is who the CEO is, and what the focus is now, growth or savings? The focus is on both of them. So there were very operational discussions in the conference call that I listened to.
底线是，是的，这只股票上涨了 20% 到 25%，但我实际上在提高对它的评分，因为更好的正面消息在推动它。因此，完全没有卖出。可以说，这是一个高风险、高回报的局面。2027 年和 2028 年的大幅改善，加上 7 倍的市盈率和 7% 的回购收益率，不会持续太久。
The bottom line is yes, the stock is up 20 to 25 percent, but I'm actually improving the bonus on the square thanks to the better positive news driving it. Therefore, there is no sale at all.
This was, let's say, a high-risk, high-reward situation. Substantial improvements for 2027 and 2028 and a price-to-earnings ratio of seven, along with a seven percent repurchase yield, will not last long.
当然，如果接下来的几个季度更慢，诸如此类，股票可能再次下跌，看起来可能很难看。所以存在风险，经济衰退的风险会影响公司，但它们拥有吸引许多客户的关键基础基础设施，80% 的银行，以及美国第一大交易商。
基础设施就在那里，而且基于上一届政府的失败、糟糕的资本配置以及阿根廷因通胀而带来的出色数据等等，估值非常便宜。因此，我会继续持有它，直到出现合适的价值释放。
Of course, if the coming quarters are slower, and things like that, the stock may fall again and it may look ugly. So there is a risk, the risk of recession affects the company, but they have a vital basic infrastructure that attracts many customers, 80 percent of banks, and the number one trader in the United States.
The infrastructure is there and very cheaply based on the failures of the previous administration, poor capital allocation, and great figures from Argentina due to inflation, and things like that .
Therefore, I will continue to hold onto it until a suitable value release occurs.
观察点
这个频道对 $VRSN 的历次判断
Value Investing with Sven Carlin, Ph.D. 在这只股票上共 2 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。