VRT 是有吸引力的长期机会：按 33 倍市盈率对比 31 倍的平均水平，明年盈利增长 36%、之后增长 27%，使 PEG 低于 1，若估值倍数维持，可能带来约 40% 的上行空间。无论哪种 AI 芯片胜出，它都能受益，但资本开支削减会带来伤害。
逐段跳播
第一只股票是 Vertiv，交易代码是 VRT。我认为这家公司在 AI 基础设施市场中占据着最值得关注的位置之一。
The first stock will be Vertiv, and the trading symbol is VRT. This is a company that I believe has one of the most interesting positions in the AI infrastructure market.
看这张 FastGraphs 图表，你可以看到该公司在2024年上涨了26%。但 FastGraphs 的真正价值就在这里，因为正如你在右侧看到的，在你所看的这段时期内，这家公司的平均典型市盈率约为31倍。
该股目前的交易价格略高，为33倍。但如果盈利继续增长、股价继续支撑这一倍数，那么再说一次，我们根本不是在谈论估值倍数的扩张。这将是一只从当前水平上涨约40%的股票。我不知道你怎么想，但我很喜欢这样的回报。
Looking at this FastGraphs chart , you can see that the company rose by 26% in 2024. But here lies the real benefit of FastGraphs, because as you can see on the right, the average typical price-to-earnings ratio for this company over the period you are looking at is around 31 times.
The stock is currently trading at a slightly higher price of 33 times that . But if earnings continue to grow and the stock continues to justify this multiple, then again, we are not even talking about an expansion in the multiple by any means.
This would be a stock that grows by approximately 40% from its current levels. I don't know about you , but I love these returns.
再看看 FastGraphs 里的预测标签页。假设这只股票只值29.5倍的市盈率，基于未来的盈利增长，我们谈论的仍然是一只较当前水平有超过30%上涨潜力的股票。
Here's another look at the forecasts tab in FastGraphs. Let's assume that the stock is worth, for example, only a multiple of 29.5 times. We are still talking about a stock with a potential upside of over 30% from current levels based on upcoming earnings growth .
Vertiv 提供数据中心使用的关键基础设施，包括能源管理、热管理、液冷，以及运营所有这些设施所需的其他服务。随着基于 AI 的计算系统变得更加强大，这些需求变得更加重要。传统数据中心在设计上未必能应对现代 AI 计算系统的能源强度。
如果你走进过这样的数据中心——我猜你们很多人没有——那里有成千上万个图形处理器（GPU）在超负荷运转，需要巨大的电力。所以，有了这么多能量，这些东西会变得非常热。这种热量需要被管理。
冷却系统只是 Vertiv 提供的要素之一。否则，设备就无法高效或可靠地运行。因此，建设 AI 数据中心的公司需要的不仅仅是先进的半导体，还需要基础设施来支撑。我认为这是 Vertiv 面临的最大机会之一。
Vertiv provides vital infrastructure used in data centers. This includes energy management, thermal management, liquid cooling, and other services required to operate all these facilities .
As AI-based computing systems become more powerful , these requirements have become more important. Traditional data centers were not necessarily designed to handle the energy intensity of modern AI computing systems.
If you ever enter one of these data centers, which I'm guessing many of you haven't , there are thousands of graphics processing units (GPUs) working overtime and requiring enormous amounts of power .
So, with all this energy, these things can get very hot. This heat needs to be managed. Cooling systems are just one of the elements offered by Vertiv. Otherwise, the equipment cannot operate efficiently or reliably.
Therefore, companies building AI data centers need more than just advanced semiconductors. It needs infrastructure to support it. I believe this is one of the biggest opportunities available to Vertiv.
现在回到我的 Investors'Edge 网站，我的私人社区里所有订阅者都可以访问，你会看到一幅与 CoreWeave 这类公司完全不同的图景。Vertiv 的财务健康评分接近80，净负债仅为0.2，非常强劲，速动比率高于1。
公司有负债没问题，但问题是：它们是否有流动性，更重要的是，是否有现金流来帮助偿还这些债务？看 Vertiv，答案是肯定的。
Now, let's return to my Investors'Edge website, which is available to all subscribers in my private community, and you can see a completely different picture than what we saw with companies like CoreWeave.
Vertiv boasts a financial health score close to 80, a net debt of just 0.2, which is very strong, and a quick ratio above one. It's fine for companies to have debt, but the question is: do they have the liquidity, and more importantly , the cash flow to help pay off that debt? When we look at Vertiv, the answer is yes.
现在来看盈利，你可以看到公司利润预计明年增长36%，后年增长27%。然而，该股目前的市盈率在三十倍出头，这意味着这只股票的“PEG”比率低于1。你支付的价格相对于预期利润增长非常有吸引力。
Now turning to earnings, you can see that the company’s profits are expected to grow by 36% next year, and by 27% the year after that. However, the stock is trading at a multiple in the low thirties, meaning that this stock has a "PEG" ratio of less than one.
The price you pay compared to the expected profit growth is very attractive.
但这个投资逻辑中我认为最有说服力的部分在这里：Vertiv 不需要预测哪家 AI 芯片制造商最终会胜出。无论公司使用 Nvidia 的处理器、AMD 的加速器，还是定制的 AI 芯片，所有这些系统都需要电力和冷却。
随着计算需求持续增加，基础设施需求可能会变得更加重要。
But here's the part I find most convincing in this investment thesis. Vertiv doesn't need to predict which AI chip manufacturer will ultimately win. Whether companies use Nvidia processors, AMD accelerators, or custom AI chips, all of these systems require power and cooling.
As computing demands continue to increase, infrastructure requirements may become even more important.
当然，这并不意味着 Vertiv 对人工智能领域的任何放缓都免疫。如果大型科技公司削减资本支出或推迟数据中心项目，就可能影响 Vertiv 未来的增长。因此，重要的是考虑各种估值因素，并确保从盈利角度看存在安全边际，以抵御任何潜在的放缓。至于 Vertiv，我认为答案就是这样。
Now, this does not mean that Vertiv is immune to any slowdown in the field of artificial intelligence. If major technology companies cut capital spending or postpone data center projects, it could affect Vertiv's future growth.
Therefore, it is important to consider the various valuation factors and ensure that there is a safety margin from an earnings perspective to counter any potential slowdown. As for Vertiv, I think that's the answer.
但这是我应对它的方式。我认为 Vertiv 提供了一个有吸引力的长期机会。如果股价继续下跌而基本面业务依然强劲，我就希望投资组合里有这样的公司。我并不声称我们知道底部在哪里，当然也不会把全部鸡蛋放在一个篮子里。
但对于希望把握 AI 基础设施持续扩张的投资者，以及那些寻找优质 AI 公司的人，我认为 Vertiv 值得认真考虑。
But here's my approach to dealing with it . I believe Vertiv offers an attractive long-term opportunity. If the stock continues to decline while the underlying business remains strong, I want that type of company in my investment portfolio.
I don't claim that we know where the bottom will be, and I certainly won't put all my eggs in one basket. But for investors looking to capitalize on the continued expansion of AI infrastructure, and those seeking a high- quality AI company, I believe Vertiv deserves serious consideration.
Vertiv 提供关键的能源和冷却基础设施。同时持有这三家公司并不一定意味着你就分散了风险，因为这三家公司在 AI 基础设施的同一个基本投资周期上都有很大的敞口。如果人工智能的资本支出继续增长，这些公司就会表现良好，它们都会受益。
但如果支出明显放缓——这是关键词——这三家公司就可能面临一些压力。
Vertief provides vital energy and cooling infrastructure. Owning all three does not necessarily mean you are diversified, because all three companies have significant exposure to the same basic investment cycle in AI infrastructure.
If capital expenditures for artificial intelligence continue to grow, these companies will perform well. They will all benefit. But if spending slows down significantly, and that is the key word, the three companies could face some pressure.
目前有三家公司特别吸引我：Vertiv、Nvidia 和 Broadcom。
Currently, there are three companies that are of particular interest to me: Vertiv, Nvidia , and Broadcom.