$VRT · Parkev Tatevosian, CFA · 2026-10-28
Vertiv 的业务因 AI 需求而蓬勃发展，经营现金流占销售额比重达创纪录的 29.2%，ROIC 接近创纪录的 24.2%，但该股估值合理：前瞻市盈率略低于 23，已从 40 以上回落，看起来被低估；而 DCF 估值为 164 美元，对比 209 美元的股价，则略显高估。在 10 月 28 日业绩公布前，说话者重申持有而非买入。
逐段跳播
9月16日，我对Vertiv Holdings进行了评估，随着其业务蓬勃发展，我觉得即使按当时约每股240美元的交易价格来看，估值也偏高了。
On September 16, I evaluated Vertiv Holdings, and as its business flourished, I felt the valuation was overpriced even at the roughly $240 per share it was trading at on that date.
此后，股价进一步下跌。目前价格为210美元，公司正准备于10月28日公布季度财务业绩。我想在公告前先看看这项业务，判断在业绩发布之前这是否是一个买入机会、我希望在其中看到什么，并确定它在这个更低的价格上是否看起来有吸引力。
Since then, the stock price has fallen even further. The price is now $210 as the company prepares to announce its quarterly financial results on October 28. I wanted to look at the business before the announcement to see if it was a buying opportunity before those results were released, what I would like to see in it, and to determine if it looked attractive at this lower price.
可以看到，Vertiv股票在这里的价格走势并不好。过去六个月里，该股下跌了超过35%。该股目前交易价格为210美元。不过，如果看年初以来的走势图，情况看起来要好得多。尽管过去六个月大幅下跌，该股仍上涨超过28%。
You can see that the price movement of Vertiv stock here has not been good. Over the past six months, the stock has fallen by more than 35%. The stock is currently trading at $210.
However, if we look at the chart from the beginning of the year, things look much better. The stock is still up more than 28% despite its significant decline over the past six months.
年初时涨势过猛，当时涨到了350美元以上。展望未来，关注Vertiv的华尔街分析师预计，未来几年每股收益将实现非常强劲的增长。
The year began with excessive force, rising to over $350 at that time. Looking ahead, Wall Street analysts who follow Vertiv expect very strong earnings per share growth over the next few years.
关注Vertiv的华尔街分析师预计，未来几年每股收益将增长40%。更令人印象深刻的是，公司经营现金流与销售额之比正接近创纪录水平，达到29.2%。这是公司有史以来达到的最高比例。
Wall Street analysts who follow Vertiv expect earnings per share growth of 40% for the next few years. What makes it even more impressive is that the company's cash flow from operations to sales ratio is approaching record levels at 29.2%.
It is the highest percentage the company has ever achieved.
因此，在人工智能需求推动收入增长和上升的同时，公司的利润率和经营现金流也在同步改善。
Therefore, while revenues are increasing and rising as a result of demand for artificial intelligence, the company's profit margins and operating cash flows are improving at the same time.
对我来说，这表明公司产品和服务存在强劲的内生需求。这正是我在判断公司是否真的在经历收入增长的结构性转变时希望看到的。
For me, this is a sign of strong organic demand for the company’s products and services. This is what I like to see to determine whether the company is actually experiencing a structural shift towards increased revenue.
投入资本回报率也正接近创纪录水平，达到24.2%，而就在几年前还处于负值。所以，业务在各方面都蒸蒸日上。收入稳步增长。对其产品和服务的需求超出预期。与此同时，公司的利润率也在提高。
Returns on invested capital are also approaching record levels of 24.2%, after being at negative levels just a few years ago. So, business is booming on all fronts. Revenues are steadily increasing.
Demand for its products and services exceeds expectations. At the same time, the company's profit margins are also increasing.
但过去六个月股价的大幅下跌，使Vertiv股票的交易估值变得更加合理。此前，该股的前瞻市盈率高于40，现在已降至略低于23。因此，其前瞻市盈率几乎下降了一半。
But this significant drop in share price over the past six months has made Vertiv's stock trade at a more reasonable valuation. Previously, the stock was trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio above 40, and has now dropped to just under 23.
So, its forward price-to-earnings ratio has dropped by almost half.
仅根据这一估值指标来看，该股似乎被低估了。不过，我喜欢全面地看待估值。当我用我的现金流折现模型来看估值时，该股似乎略微高估。
According to this valuation metric alone, the stock appears to be undervalued. However, I like to look at the evaluation holistically. When I look at the valuation using my discounted cash flow model, the stock appears to be slightly overvalued.
因此，我计算出该公司的价值为164。为了估算这个价值，我预测了我认为公司从现在到非常遥远的未来将产生的自由现金流。然后，我用加权平均资本成本对这些现金流进行折现，以确定该股今天的价值。
So, I calculated a value for the company at 164. To estimate this value, I project what I feel the company will generate in free cash flows from now until the very distant future.
I then discount those cash flows using the weighted average cost of capital to determine the stock's value today.
我要对这些未来现金流进行折现的原因是，未来的钱对我们来说，价值低于今天口袋里的钱。我希望大家都能同意，如果我今天给你100美元，你会更愿意今天就把这100美元装进口袋，而不是五年后。
这很明显。你更愿意今天收到100美元。但五年后承诺给你100美元，你更愿意收到什么来代替？五年后承诺给你100美元，你会接受75美元吗？所以，这就引出了现值计算，对吧？存在某个你愿意接受来代替五年后那100美元的金额。
否则，你会说：“你知道吗？”“我会等。”是不是这样？如果我给你20美元来代替5年后的100美元，你可能会说：“你知道吗？”我宁愿接受5年后的100美元，也不要今天的20美元。
My reason for deducting those future cash flows is that the value of money in the future is less for us than the value of money in our pockets today. I hope you can all agree that if I offered you $100 today, you would prefer to have that $100 in your pockets today rather than five years from now.
Well, that's obvious. You would prefer to receive $100 today. But what would you prefer to receive instead of the promised $100 five years from now? Would you accept $75 instead of a promise of $100 five years from now?
So, here we come to calculating the present value, right? There is a certain value that you will accept instead of that hundred dollars five years from now. Otherwise, you will say, "Do you know?"
"I will wait." Isn't that so? If I offered you $20 instead of $100 in 5 years, you might say, "You know what?" I would accept the $100 in 5 years instead of the $20 today.
因此，通过这样计算，公司今天的估值为164美元，而市价为209美元。所以，即使应用5%到10%的安全边际，用这个估值指标来看，这只股票似乎仍略微高估。
Therefore, by doing this calculation, the company is valued at $164 today compared to its market price of $209. So, even after applying a safety margin of 5 to 10%, the stock appears to be slightly overvalued using this valuation metric.
总体来看，公司似乎估值合理，因为一个指标显示它被低估，而另一个指标显示它被高估。所以总体而言，我会说公司似乎估值合理。
Overall, the company appears to be fairly valued because one metric shows me an undervaluation, while another shows an overvaluation. So, overall, I would say the company appears to be fairly valued.
正如我跟你们分享的，我在9月16日上次估值时把这只股票归类为持有，而不是买入机会，在公司明天公布财报之前，我重申这一归类。
As I shared with you, I classified the stock as a hold position, not a buy opportunity, on September 16 when I last valued it, and I reiterate that classification before the company's earnings results are announced tomorrow.
这个频道对 $VRT 的历次判断
Parkev Tatevosian, CFA 在这只股票上共 2 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。