VST是一个看多论点;其现有核能基础设施可通过高效扩容(提升功率)来满足AI需求,并得到政府资金和企业合同的支持。
逐段跳播
首先,我想谈谈“Vistra”这家公司。它的股票代码是VST。有很多投资者热衷于那些尚未盈利的核能公司。我想对他们说:“你们为什么不去看看一家真正存在、已经在运营的核能公司呢?”
First, I want to talk about the company "Vistra". Its stock symbol is VST. There are many investors who are enthusiastic about nuclear energy companies that have not yet turned a profit.
And I say to them: "Why don't you look at an actual, existing nuclear company ?"
当然,“Vestra”并不只依赖核能。它通过多种能源发电,包括太阳能、煤炭和天然气。它几乎涵盖了所有能源类型。
Of course, " Vestra" does not rely solely on nuclear power. It generates energy from diverse sources, including solar power, coal, and gas. I mean, it covers almost the entire range of energy sources.
它在一些地区直接向客户售电。但它也为得克萨斯州的ERCOT等大型电网运营商供电。因此,它实际上为从得克萨斯州一路向北的众多客户供电。我相信它的覆盖范围一直延伸到俄亥俄州。
It sells electricity directly to customers in some areas. However, it also supplies major network operators such as ERCOT in Texas. Therefore, it actually supplies many customers from Texas all the way north. I believe its coverage extends as far as Ohio.
我今天重点讲这家公司的原因是,美国政府将向它提供约40亿美元的贷款。
The reason I'm highlighting this company today is that the US government is going to give it a loan of approximately $4 billion.
那么,政府为什么要这么做?因为这家公司已经拥有现成的核设施。它不需要新建设施,就可以提高现有设施的发电量。这叫做“uprating”(提升产能)。因此,它可以提高现有设施的容量,并利用现有的网络基础设施。
在我看来,这是对能源更高效的利用,或者说更高效的部署。
Now, why is the government doing this? Because the company already owns existing nuclear facilities . Instead of needing to build new facilities, it can increase the amount of electricity produced by existing facilities.
This is called " uprating" (increasing productivity). Therefore, it can increase the capacity of existing facilities and utilize the existing network infrastructure . From my point of view, this is a more efficient use, or more efficient deployment, of energy.
如果你看看那些可能因这笔政府贷款而提高产能的核电站,你会发现其中一座直接为Meta的数据中心供电,而Meta是这件事的主要受益者。另一个例子是Amazon Web Services(AWS)。
其中一个数据中心可能仅仅因为Vestra提高了它已拥有的核电站的产能而受益。
If you look at the nuclear power plants whose capacity may be increased thanks to this government loan, you will find that one of them directly feeds the Meta data center, which is a major beneficiary of this.
Another example is Amazon Web Services (AWS). One of these centers could benefit from Vestra simply increasing the capacity of the nuclear power plants it already owns.
需要说明的是,我们在这里谈到的“Vestra”的部分,就是所谓的“独立电力生产商”(IPP)。许多这类公用事业公司同时经营受监管业务和不受监管业务。在大多数州,受监管业务意味着你支付电费,而价格是经过协商并设有上限的,因为它们拥有受监管的垄断地位。
独立能源生产商这一侧则是不受监管的业务。在这里,它们建一座电厂,如果能找到愿意购买的客户,也许是签订长期合同,那就很好,你可以从中赚取利润。但它们承担更大的风险,因为如果没有客户,如果你只在批发市场上卖电,有时你会赚取巨额利润,有时利润则不会很大。
因此,这个市场的风险更大,但我目前认为,人工智能背后的势头和需求将成为像Vistura这类公司的真正驱动力。
To clarify, the part we are talking about in "Vestra" here is what is called an " Independent Power Producer" ( IPP). Many of these utility companies operate with both a regulated side of the business and an unregulated side.
In most states, the regulated side means that you pay your electricity bill, and that price is negotiated and capped because they have a regulated monopoly. The side of independent energy producers is the unregulated side.
Here they build a power plant, and if they find a customer willing to buy, perhaps on a long-term contract, that's great, you can make a profit margin from it. But they take greater risks, because if there is no customer, and if you only sell in the wholesale market, sometimes you will make huge profits, and other times the profits will not be big .
Therefore, there are greater risks in the market, but I currently believe that the momentum behind artificial intelligence and demand will be the real driver for companies like Vistura.
我认为,你说得对,拥有那些已经接入电网的现有资产很关键。顺便说一句,这恰恰代表了很大一部分问题所在。这不仅仅是建一座电厂——无论是燃气电厂还是核电厂——还要建输电线路,把它连接到电网或你想要运营的数据中心。
所以,他们会发现越来越多这样的机会,说:“这里有个目前被忽视的东西,我们能把它重新运转起来吗?”我们早就见过这种情况,比如“Three Mile Island”。我相信那是微软的项目,对吧?
他们签了一份长期合同,说:“我们能让它重新运转吗?”因为他们急需能源。因此,对像Vistura这样的公司来说,这将是一个长期的激励,也许会持续几十年。
And I think you are right about owning those existing assets that are already connected to the network. Incidentally, this represents a large part of the problem. It's not just about building a power plant, whether it's a gas or nuclear plant, but also about building transmission lines to connect it to the grid or to the data center you're trying to run.
So, they will find more and more of these opportunities, saying, "Here is something that is currently neglected, can we get it back up and running?" We've seen this, you know, since the early days, like " Three Mile Island".
I believe that was a Microsoft project, wasn't it? They signed a long-term contract and said, " Can we get this back to work?" Because they are in dire need of energy. Therefore, this will be a long-term incentive, perhaps lasting for decades, for companies like Vistura.
这个频道对 $VST 的历次判断
The Motley Fool 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。