基于强劲的订单储备和经常性收入，Wabtec是买入标的，尽管其因资本回报率低和倍数昂贵而受到批评。
逐段跳播
股价和企业是有区别的。这就是我们在这里试图教的东西。各位，我们有了第三个买入，但请继续关注我们，因为最后一个卖出更清楚地凸显了同样的错误。所以，我们最新的《福布斯》买入是Wabtec，一家毫无魅力的公司。
There's a difference between stock price and business. That's what we're trying to teach here. Guys, we have our third buy , but stay with us because the last sell highlights the same mistake even more clearly.
So, our latest Forbes buy is Wabtec , a company that lacks any glamour.
它生产机车和铁路零部件。我刚才笑了，因为我根本不知道他们是做什么的，这确实让我觉得好笑。这无聊吗？也许吧。但你得仔细看。
It makes locomotive and railroad parts. I just laughed because I didn't know what they do, and that actually makes me laugh. Is it boring? Maybe. But you have to look closely.
它在全球大约有24,600台机车，铁路公司不断为其维护、现代化改造和维修付费。事实上，它现在超过一半的货运销售额都来自这项经常性的售后业务。
It has roughly 24,600 locomotives around the world, and the railroads are constantly paying for their upkeep, modernization, and repairs. In fact, more than half of its freight sales now come from this recurring after-sales business .
看出规律了吗？就像KLA一样，它靠已经卖出去的机器反复收钱。这正是我们喜欢的那种赚钱方式。更妙的是，它未来的订单积压刚刚创下310亿美元的纪录，增长近42%，分布在新机车、升级改造、备件和长期服务协议上。所以，它能预见未来数年的工作量。
See the pattern? Just like KLA, it gets paid repeatedly for machines it's already sold. That's the kind of money we like. And even better, its backlog of future orders just hit a record $31 billion, up nearly 42% is spread across new locomotives, upgrades, spare parts, and long-term service agreements . So, it can see years of work ahead.
而且它上季度的利润跃升超过21%，营业利润率达到健康的22%。各位，我的评估是，它有点像电梯生意。进入机车领域大概会相当困难。这是一个老生意、一个固守成规的老行业，而这恰恰是好事，它会一次又一次地雇用同一家公司。
所以，我认为那些人会在相当长一段时间内保持领先。
And its profits jumped more than 21% last quarter with a healthy operating margin of 22%. Guys, my assessment is that it's a bit like the elevator business. Getting into the locomotive world is probably going to be pretty tough .
It's an old business, an old industry stuck in its ways, which is a good thing, and it hires the same company over and over again . So, I think those guys are going to be leaders for a while .
现在说说悲观的前景。铁路与经济紧密相连。在经济放缓时，铁路运输量减少，并推迟建造新设备和购买新设备。它大约一半的销售额来自海外，这使它面临关税和全球性冲击的风险。
Now , the pessimistic outlook. Railroads are tied to the economy. In a slowdown, railroads ship less and delay building new equipment and buying new equipment. About half of its sales come from overseas, which exposes it to tariffs and global disruptions .
那么，我们来算一算。提醒一下，Warren Buffett在分析经济时关注的指标之一，就是他对拥有铁路的钟爱。他过去常说：“我看我们的铁轨有多少在被填满。有多少车厢在被填满？”所以，这绝对是一个与经济息息相关的行业。
So, let's do the math. Just to remind you , one of the metrics Warren Buffett looks at when analyzing the economy, you know, is his love of owning railroads. He used to say, " I look at how many of our tracks are being filled."
How many vehicles are being filled? "So, this is definitely a sector that goes hand in hand with the economy.
各位，这是一家500亿美元的公司，却有600亿美元的债务。所以，整个企业的总价值大约是600亿美元，抱歉。所以，大约100亿美元的债务。
Guys, it's a $50 billion company with $60 billion in debt . So, the total value of the enterprise is about $60 billion, sorry. So, about $10 billion of debt.
而且，各位，他们的自由现金流只有17亿美元。所以，他们的债务负担要重得多。但很多人会认为，他们生意的性质大概是非常好的。
And, guys, their free cash flow is only $1.7 billion . So, they're much heavier in debt . But a lot of people would argue that the nature of their business is probably very good.
现在，有一点我不喜欢，那就是资本回报率真的很差。我不喜欢这一点。这意味着他们投入公司的钱没有获得良好的回报。而且这种情况已经持续了一段时间。所以，这让我心生疑虑。
Now, there's something I do n't like, and that's the really poor return on capital . I don't like that. It means they're not getting a good return on the money invested in the company.
And that's been going on for a while. So, it makes me wonder.
对我来说，我在这家公司身上应该得到更好的条件。我应该假设一个高得多的回报率。现在，看看这个。他们过去10年的利润率是8.1%，过去五年是9.6%，去年是10.6%。这是一个很大的跃升。
For me, I should be getting a better deal in this company. I should be assuming a much higher rate of return . Now, look at this. Their profit margin over the last 10 years has been 8.1%, 9.6% over the last five years , and 10.6% last year. That's a big jump.
但看看他们的营收增长。总的来说……基本上是过去10年持续保持两位数的增长。天哪，我真的很不喜欢这一点。我不喜欢这里的资本回报率。
But look at their revenue growth. In general..." Basically, double-digit growth for the past 10 years consistently. Man, I really don't like that. I don't like the return on capital here.
我们来看看他们的八大支柱。啊，他们的很多债务看起来并不像真正的债务。大部分可能与企业负债或向交了定金的其他人的贷款有关，因为我看到这里的债务水平很低。
Let's check out their eight pillars. Ah, a lot of their debt doesn't really look like real debt. Most of it is probably related to business liabilities or loans to other people who put down a deposit , because I see the debt levels here are low.
流通股很少，但话说回来，资本回报率很差。而且他们的五年市盈率和五年市自由现金流比率都不怎么样。他们的一年市自由现金流比率是29。
Outstanding equity is low, but again, the return on capital is bad. And their five-year price-to-earnings ratio and five- year price-to-free-cash-flow ratio aren't great. Their one-year price-to-free-cash-flow ratio is 29.
好，我们看看分析师怎么想。分析师预测盈利将从1063增长到1250。好，那营收呢？各位，这不是一家光鲜亮丽的公司，所以我会做一些相当合理的假设。各位，我在这家公司身上做了一些有意思的测算。
尽管分析师预测营收增长良好，我还是假设未来10年的增长率为3%、6%和9%。
Okay, let's see what the analysts think. The analysts are forecasting earnings growth from 1063 to 1250. Okay, and what about revenue? Guys, this isn't a glamorous company, so I'm going to make some pretty reasonable assumptions.
So, guys, I've done some interesting stuff with this company. Even though the analysts are forecasting good revenue growth, I've assumed rates of 3%, 6%, and 9% over the next 10 years .
至于利润率，我设了8.5%、9.5%和10.5%，尽管它呈上升趋势。至于自由现金流，我用了10%、11.5%和13%，因为他们的自由现金流高于利润率，这一点我很喜欢。
For the profit margin, I put 8.5%, 9.5%, and 10.5%, even though it's trending upwards . For free cash flow, I used 10, 11.5%, and 13 because their free cash flow is higher than their profit margin, which I really like .
但至于市盈率，各位，记住他们的净资产收益率很低。我设了12、15和18。因为记住，当净资产收益率低时，你必须在这家公司身上拿到更好的条件。你如何在未来获得更便宜的价格？你支付更低的市盈率。
But for the price-to-earnings ratio, guys, remember their return on equity is low. I put 12, 15, and 18. Because remember, when the return on equity is low, you have to get a better deal on the company.
How do you get a cheaper price in the future? You pay a lower price-to-earnings ratio.
最后，我的回报率是 9.5%。于是，我点了分析按钮。各位，这只股票现在是 290。我的低点是 80 到 90，高点是 190 到 240，平均是 125 到 150。
And finally, my rate of return is 9.5 %. So, I hit the analyze button. Guys, the stock is at 290. I have a low of 80 to 90, a high of 190 to 240, and an average of 125 to 150.
各位，我不知道他们在一家他们愿意买入的公司里看到了什么，但他们确实看到了某些东西。也许只是我的假设错了。
Guys, I don't know what they see here in a company they like to buy, but they see something. Maybe my assumptions are just wrong.
这个频道对 $WAB 的历次判断
Everything Money 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。