Workday 预计 FY2028 营收增长约 11%，较过去十年放缓；AI 经常性收入为 6 亿美元，但规模仍小。其远期市盈率为 14.1，接近 2023 年底以来的最低水平，而此前曾超过 40，因此 WDAY 看起来便宜且被低估；他称其为买入，但因未做 DCF 而信心较低；他很少跟踪该股。
逐段跳播
Workday 预计其 2028 财年的收入将以两位数的速度增长。此外，公司预计下一季度的非 GAAP 营业利润率为 31%。他们还预计营业利润率将提升 200 个基点，即便他们正在利用人工智能投资以增强其业务。
Workday expects its revenue for fiscal year 2028 to grow at a double-digit rate. In addition, the company expects a non-GAAP operating margin of 31% in the next quarter. They also expect a 200 basis point improvement in their operating profit margin even as they invest to enhance their business using artificial intelligence.
过去十二个月，来自人工智能的经常性收入达到 6 亿美元。那么，这是否让 Workday 股票成为一个买入机会？我想更仔细地看一看，并通过考察公司的长期表现、将其进行对比并结合近期发展，然后考察估值来判断这是否是一只值得买入的股票，从而回答这个问题。
Recurring revenue from artificial intelligence reached 600 million during the past twelve months. So, does this make Workday stock a buying opportunity? I wanted to take a closer look and answer this question by looking at the company’s long-term performance, comparing it and incorporating recent developments, and then looking at the valuation to determine whether this was an attractive stock to buy.
自 2017 年以来，Workday 的收入增长了约 10 倍。过去十二个月，公司创造了 101.6 亿美元的收入，而 10 年前约为 10 亿美元。
Since 2017, Workday has increased its revenue by approximately 10 times. Over the past twelve months, the company has generated $10.16 billion in revenue, up from about $1 billion 10 years ago.
然而，增长速度正在放缓。对 2028 财年，也就是下一个财年的预测给出了两位数的百分比，约为 11%。这将意味着相比过去十年的复合年增长率出现显著放缓。
However, the growth rate is slowing down. The forecast for fiscal year 2028, which is the next fiscal year, has been given a double-digit percentage, around 11%. This would represent a significant slowdown in the compound annual growth rate of the previous decade.
他们正在用人工智能和专用代理来增强其服务。这部分业务增长迅速，但相比传统业务仍然相对较小，而正是这一点给公司的长期增长期望带来了压力。
They are enhancing their services with artificial intelligence and dedicated agents. This part of their business is growing rapidly, but it is still relatively small compared to the traditional business, and this is what is putting pressure on the company's long-term growth aspirations.
然而，Workday 正在负责任且明智地增长，在收入增长的同时注重盈利能力。这使公司过去十二个月实现了 30% 的营业利润率。
However, Workday is growing responsibly and wisely, focusing on profitability alongside revenue growth. This has allowed the company to achieve an operating profit margin of 30% over the past twelve months.
抱歉，我应该说，是过去十二个月经营活动现金流与销售额之比为 30%。对于更成熟的公司，我通常看营业利润率，但对于规模较小的公司或仍处于成长阶段的公司，我更倾向于看经营活动现金流，以判断其是否可持续。
如果一家公司持续产生正的、盈利水平良好的经营活动现金流，就意味着它不必回头向投资者要任何资本。此外，这还赋予公司余地和杠杆，使其能够做出战略决策，以抵消消费者行为或宏观经济动态的一些变化。
这让他们在机会出现时有机会进行收购。如果股价跌破管理层认为明智的卖出水平，这让他们有机会回购股票。所以，所有这些都使得这对 Workday 来说是一个非常有利可图的指标。
Sorry, I should say 30% of the cash flow from operations to sales over the past twelve months. I usually look at the operating profit margin for more mature companies, but for smaller companies or companies that are still in the growth stages, I prefer to look at the cash flow from operations to determine whether it is sustainable.
If a company is generating consistent cash flow from operations at positive and profitable levels, it means it does not have to return to investors and ask for any capital. Furthermore, it gives the company margin and leverage to make strategic decisions to offset some changes in consumer behavior or macroeconomic dynamics.
It gives them the opportunity to make an acquisition if an opportunity arises. It gives them the opportunity to repurchase shares if their share price falls below the levels at which management believes it is wise to sell.
So, all of this makes it a situation where this is a very profitable metric for Workday.
管理层表示，他们正在开发新的人工智能驱动产品，并加快这些投资的步伐。初步迹象表明，他们的客户对这些进展表示认可，Workday 正在开发超过 25,000 个专用代理。
The administration stated that it is developing new AI-powered products and increasing the pace of these investments. Initial indications suggest that their customers appreciate these developments, with over 25,000 dedicated agents being developed at Workday.
尽管投资增加，Workday 的研发支出占收入的百分比却大幅下降。这表明公司正受益于规模经济。当你的收入增长快于研发支出时，就会产生杠杆并扩大利润率。Workday 的研发与收入之比已降至 27%，而就在几年前还是 44%。
Despite these increased investments, Workday's research and development expenditure as a percentage of revenue has fallen significantly. That's a sign that the company is benefiting from economies of scale.
When your revenue grows at a faster rate than your spending on research and development, it creates leverage and expands your profit margins. Workday's R&D to revenue ratio has fallen to 27%, compared to 44% just a few years ago.
总体而言，这个百分比仍然相对较高。如果它在未来五年内降至 15% 以下、在未来十年内降至 10% 以下，我不会感到意外。这些是规模更大的同类行业公司的常见指标。
Overall, this percentage is still relatively high. I wouldn't be surprised if it fell below 15% over the next five years, and below 10% over the next ten years. Those are the usual metrics for companies in similar industries of a larger scale.
既然我们已经考察了长期表现指标并评估了近期发展，我想看看估值。基于市盈率，Workday 股票目前的市盈率为 14.1。这一水平接近该股自 2023 年底以来达到的最低价格。该股此前的远期市盈率曾超过 40。
Now that we have looked at the long-term performance metrics and assessed recent developments, I wanted to look at the evaluation. Based on the price-to-earnings ratio, Workday stock is trading at 14.1.
This level is close to the lowest price the stock has reached since late 2023. This stock previously traded at a forward price-to-earnings ratio exceeding 40.
对于一家以两位数增长、利润率不断扩大、投资于人工智能产品并获得认可的公司来说，14 倍的远期市盈率看起来相对便宜。
For a company growing in double digits, with expanding margins, investing in AI products and gaining acceptance, a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 14 looks relatively cheap.
我还没有计算 Workday 的现金流折现估值，但仅从市盈率来看估值，这只股票似乎被低估了。为了回答我在标题中提出的问题，Workday 股票看起来是一个买入机会吗？我会说是的，但我也会说，我对这个买入评级抱有相对较低的信念和相对较低的信心。
一个原因是我还没有计算公司的现金流折现价值。这会改变我对公司整体估值的看法。此外，这不是我经常跟踪的公司。因此，这两个因素降低了我对这个买入评级的信心水平。
I have not yet calculated Workday's discounted cash flow valuation, but just looking at the valuation using the price-to-earnings ratio, the stock appears to be undervalued. To answer the question I posed in the title, does Workday stock look like a buying opportunity?
I would say yes, but I would also say that I have a relatively low level of conviction and a relatively low level of confidence in this purchase rating. One reason is that I have not yet calculated the value of the company's discounted cash flow.
This will make a difference in how I view the company's overall valuation. In addition, this is not a company I follow frequently. Therefore, these two factors lower my confidence level in this purchase rating.