WDC本季度表现异常出色，毛利率超过80%，40TB ePMR在下季度约占出货量的30%，此后约占50%，且2027和2028财年艾字节增长加速；但股价下跌2.6%，供应短缺被认为将限制增长，且披露情况使产能增长难以核实。
逐段跳播
我认为，在研发以及实际已出货的产品方面，他们比 Western Digital 或 Toshiba 这类公司领先大约一年到一年半。
I think they are ahead of companies like Western Digital or Toshiba by about a year or a year and a half in terms of development and products that are actually shipped.
Western Digital 使用一种它称为 ePMR 的技术，同时还增加磁头和盘片的数量，以匹配 Seagate 的 HAMR 容量，而所有这些都属于 HAMR 硬盘这一类别。
Western Digital uses a technology it calls ePMR, in addition to increasing the number of heads and disks to match Seagate's HAMR capacities , all of which fall under the category of HAMR drives.
今年早些时候，Western Digital 还讨论过未来把其硬盘中的盘片数量从目前的 11 片增加到 14 片。通过这种方式结合 HAMR，到 2030 年实现 100TB 硬盘。
该公司还讨论了两种提升硬盘性能的方法，这真的很有意思。其中一种是使用两个独立的操作器，可以有效将数据传输速率提高一倍。第二种方法是在盘片两侧的磁头对上分别进行写入和读取，同样可以提高数据传输速率。
谈到这一点，最多使用四对磁头可以让数据传输速率提升多达 8 倍。而如果理论上再实现双驱动器功能，数据传输速率可以提升约 16 倍，这对于这些超高容量硬盘来说会非常重要。
Earlier this year, Western Digital also discussed increasing the number of discs in their drives from the current 11 to 14 in the future. Using this approach with HAMR to achieve 100 terabyte hard drives by 2030 .
The company also discussed two approaches to increasing the performance of hard drives, which is really interesting. One of them is using two separate operators that can effectively double the data transfer rate.
The second approach is to write and read separately on pairs of heads on either side of the disk to also increase data rates. Talk about this with up to four pairs of heads that will allow you to increase your data rates by as much as 8 times.
And if you also theoretically implement dual-drive functionality , you could get a data rate increase of about 16 times , which would be very important with these very high-capacity hard drives.
正如我刚才提到的，我们更多地聚焦 Western Digital，我们显然看到了业绩结果。这一季度最引起你注意的是什么？因为这是一份绝对出色的财报。然而，我们并没有看到任何反应。
整个一周里，市场的反应并没有它本该有的那么积极。我们下跌了约 2.6%。所以，这不算是一个压力巨大的日子，但情况仍然如此。那么，业绩是不是非常出色？
To focus more on Western Digital as I just mentioned, we clearly got the results. I mean, what caught your attention the most this quarter? Because it was an absolutely fantastic report .
However, we did not see any reactions. I mean, it wasn't as positive as it should have been throughout the week. I mean, we're down about 2.6%. So, it's not a day of tremendous pressure, but it's still that way . I mean, were the results exceptional?
是的，业绩非常出色。她表示，正如我们刚才讨论的，在更高容量产品和更强定价的支撑下，额外的毛利率将保持在 80% 以上。他们表示，40TB ePMR 平台在下个季度将占其出货量的大约 30%，再下一个季度约占 50%，这意味着显著的增长。
他们说，第一代 HAMR 技术的出货有望在 2027 日历年上半年如期开始。第二代 HAMR 技术的认证流程计划在明年下半年进行。该公司还预计，在 2027 和 2028 财年，EB 级出货量的增长将会加速。
因此，预计会有显著的增长来支撑许多这类数据中心。由于他们在一段时间内仍将受到供应短缺的影响，价格还有进一步上涨的空间。
Yes, the results were exceptional. She said that additional gross profit margins would remain above 80%, supported by higher capacity products and stronger pricing, as we just discussed.
They stated that the 40TB ePMR platform will account for approximately 30% of their shipments in the next quarter and approximately 50 % in the following quarter, which represents significant growth.
They say that shipments of the first generation of HAMR technology are on track to begin in the first half of calendar year 2027. The qualification process for the second generation of HAMR technology is planned to take place in the second half of next year.
The company also expects exabyte growth to accelerate during fiscal years 2027 and 2028. Therefore, there appears to be significant growth expected to support many of these data centers.
There is room for further price increases as they will continue to suffer from shortages for some time.
这一整周，AI 相关存储的需求一直是讨论的焦点。不只是对 Western Digital 而言，关键在于目前需求明显超过供给。在经济学上，这通常被视为好事。然而，对于 Western Digital 这样的公司，甚至 Lam Research——当然它情况不同，但有着类似的限制——这不再被视为积极因素，因为这明显限制了这些公司的增长能力。
那么，由于当前这种增长和产能的缺乏正在制约整个行业，这是否让你对 Western Digital 或更广泛的存储板块有些犹豫？
Well, the demand for AI-related storage has been the focus of conversation all week. I mean, not just for Western Digital, but the point is that demand currently clearly exceeds supply.
This is generally viewed as a good thing in economics. However, when it comes to a company like Western Digital or even Lam Research, which is different of course but has similar limitations, this is no longer seen as a positive aspect because it clearly limits the ability of these companies to grow .
So, does this make you a little hesitant when it comes to Western Digital or the wider storage sector because of this current lack of growth and capacity that is constraining the entire industry?
Seagate 和 Western Digital 已经研究过这一点，他们本质上是在试图通过虚拟硬盘容量来实现增长，而不是增加出货数量。在我看来，他们几乎正是这么做的。现在要判断这一点比过去更难了，因为他们不披露能让你获得这一信息的数字。
Seagate and Western Digital have looked at this, and they are essentially trying to grow through virtual drive capacity rather than increasing the number of units shipped. And they do almost exactly that, in my estimation.
It has become more difficult to determine this than before because they do not disclose the figures that give you this information.
观察点
这个频道对 $WDC 的历次判断
Schwab Network 在这只股票上共 7 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。