尽管营收增长超过50%后股价仍下跌，Western Digital 仍获评跑赢大盘、目标价650美元，原因是市场对AI支出的担忧盖过了强劲的季度表现。硬盘供给较需求短缺20%，这一局面应持续到2028年，甚至可能延续到本十年末，HDD相关风险延伸至2029年，这支撑了定价能力、更快的涨价、现金创造、回购以及更高的股价；云业务重新谈判（占业务的70-80%）可能提升利润率。WDC无法控制客户需求，2028年新增NAND供给是首要风险。
逐段跳播
存储行业仍面临压力，我们想重点关注 Western Digital。这些股票在公布季度业绩后承压，尽管业绩好于预期。
With the memory industry still under pressure, we want to focus on Western Digital. Those stocks are under pressure following their quarterly results, even though they were better than expected.
营收增长了超过50%，超出了预期。在我看来，前景并不差。是的，不，那些数字非常亮眼。如果他们在上个季度就给出这些数据——这样的产量增长、这样的定价，并且超出指引——我记得预期是50亿美元和60%的毛利率，而他们两项都超过了。
我认为股价本会涨两位数，但如果你担心明年AI支出会怎样，他们其实没法谈这个。
Revenues increased by more than 50%. They exceeded expectations. The outlook didn't look bad to me. Yes, no, those were fantastic numbers. If they had given us these figures for the last quarter, with this output growth, this pricing, and exceeding the guidance, I think the expectations were $5 billion and gross profit margins of 60%, and they exceeded both.
I think the stock would have gone up by double digits, but if you're worried about what's going to happen with AI spending next year, they can't really talk about that.
你给这只股票“跑赢大盘”评级和650美元的目标价。这是你今天发布的新备忘录里的内容。她说，目前行业的担忧盖过了亮眼的业绩。
You have an "Outperform" rating and a $650 price target for this stock. This is from your new memo issued today. She says that the industry's concerns outweigh the impressive results at the moment.
我认为硬盘存在短缺。这是行业无法缓解的。建一座磁头工厂需要两到三年，再用这些新磁头生产磁盘还需要一年。因此，我们看到的是一个供给相对于需求短缺20%的行业。
I think there is a shortage of hard drives. It is something that the industry cannot mitigate. It takes two to three years to launch a disc head factory. It takes another year to manufacture a disc from those new heads.
Therefore, we are looking at a sector that is experiencing a 20% shortage of supply compared to demand.
我认为价格很可能会以比我估计更好的速度继续上涨，而且我认为随着磁盘公司继续产生大量现金并大量回购股票，这些数字会继续攀升，股价最终也会做出恰当的反应。
I think prices will likely continue to rise at a better pace than I estimated, and I think these numbers will continue to climb as disc companies continue to generate tons of cash and repurchase lots of shares, and the stocks will eventually react appropriately.
是的，我绝对认为这仍是一个周期性行业。我再次认为，供给通常且大多数时候驱动着经济周期。因此，供给短缺才会造就上行周期，而多余产能进入市场则会导致下行周期。没有人愿意独自承担消费的成本。
在这种情况下，由于这些公司在疫情后一直没有投资，部分原因是行业此前一段时间表现不佳，它们没有增加供给所需的资本。因此，我们预计供给短缺在2028年之前是确定的，甚至可能持续到本十年末。
我相信在那段时期，它们会产生大量现金，会大量回购股票，其股票价值也会上升。
Yes, I definitely think it's still a cyclical industry. I believe again that supply usually and most of the time drives the economic cycle. Therefore, a shortage of supply is what creates upward cycles.
Excess production capacity entering the market is what leads to downward cycles. No one simply wants to bear the costs of consumption. In this case, because these companies had not been investing post-Covid, partly because the industry had been performing poorly for a while, they do not have the capital needed to increase supply.
Therefore, we expect a supply deficit to be certain until 2028, and possibly until the end of the decade. I believe that during that period they will generate a lot of cash, they will repurchase a lot of shares, and the value of their shares will increase.
Western Digital只能告诉你它在本季度或下季度看到的情况，以及它对远期客户需求的预期，但它无法控制客户需求。
Western Digital can only tell you what it sees in this quarter or the next, and what it expects for customer demand in the distant years, but it does not have control over customer demand.
建一座读写磁头工厂需要两到三年。如果说硬盘之外在供给方面存在什么风险，那就是存储。所有这些客户在一定程度上都可以选择购买固态硬盘（SSD）还是机械硬盘。如果看NAND存储，直到2028年才会有新工厂真正投产。
在我看来，供给端第一个潜在危险可能出现在2028年，届时我们会看到那些新的NAND工厂。从硬盘的角度看，这实际上会延续到2029年及以后。因此，在那段时期，我相信这些公司将拥有定价权。
Building a factory for reading and writing heads takes two to three years. If there is any risk outside the scope of hard drives in terms of supply, it is memory. All these customers can choose between purchasing solid-state drives (SSDs) or hard disk drives to a certain extent.
If you think about NAND memory, there are no new factories that will actually come online until 2028. From my point of view, the first potential danger from the supply side may emerge in 2028 when we see those new NAND factories.
From the perspective of hard drives, it actually extends to 2029 and beyond. Therefore, during that period, I believe these companies will have pricing power.
需要注意的一点是，虽然价格在上涨，但对其主要客户——占其业务70-80%的云服务提供商——的涨价幅度还没有达到同样水平。我还预计，在与这些客户重新谈判下一批协议时，将有很大空间大幅提高对这些客户的价格，这可能给这些公司的利润率和营收带来又一次质的飞跃。
One point to note is that while prices are rising, they have not yet risen at the same rate for their major customers, the cloud service providers, who make up 70-80% of their business.
I also expect that when renegotiating the next batch of agreements with these clients, there will be room to significantly raise prices for these clients, which may create another qualitative leap in profit margins and revenues for these companies.
这个频道对 $WDC 的历次判断
Schwab Network 在这只股票上共 8 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。