Whirlpool 的风险回报比很差：靠债务融资回购，70 亿美元债务以 7.5% 再融资，而此前为 1% 至 1.5%，惠誉评级 BB- 且展望负面。它无法重回疫情期间的利润水平；在利息上升后，正常化利润可能只有 2 亿美元。它需要在十二个月内迎来美国住房市场复苏才能存活；否则债券持有人可能接管。

There are a lot of comments about Whirlpool, which means something big is going on. If you look at the stock price, it has fallen by nearly 90% over the past few years. I have never before conducted an in-depth analysis of Whirlpool.

It was always on the list of stocks you might want to buy, and I mentioned it there.

In one of the videos, I said how crazy it is that they are withdrawing from India and selling their operations there, even though growth lies in that market. Also, in a second video dated September 13th a year ago, I stated that the risks and returns are not positive.

Over the past year, not many good things have happened. Even though I said in September that the situation was not positive, the stock rose significantly afterward. This can always happen.

With any kind of good news, a price rebound occurs.

But when it comes to Whirlpool, they have so far carried out appalling share buybacks. They were selling everything they could to manage the worst. In short, this is the result we are now seeing of bad management.

We have had decreasing revenues over the past few years. Part of it was organic, and part of it resulted from the sale of assets. Then if we focus more on net income, we see fluctuations, some non-cash charges, and a decrease in value, okay.

But look at this. Look at the repurchase of common stock. In 2018 and 2017, there were large buybacks, and then huge buybacks in 2021 and 2022. As a reminder, back in 2021 and 2022, when the stock was above 200, management spent $2 billion on buybacks.

Here, just in that part of the economic cycle, during the pandemic, everyone at home buying appliances, boom, they spent all that money.

How did they do that? Well, what's worse, they borrowed long-term debt. You can see the jump here from 2021 to 2022. So, an increase of more than two billion in debt added to the debt they already had.

And so, quite simply, the company is being pushed towards collapse so that you can sell a few of your shares granted through options in a good year. Competition is also not doing well from a stock market perspective.

I just analyzed this for my research platform, and added it to the stocks covered to see where it will go over time.

However, when you look at the business, it is growing, and has captured a significant market share from Whirlpool. So, the competition was there, but management, once again, was not prepared for the competition, and was therefore devoured alive.

But once again, the administration did everything that Wall Street loves. Share buybacks and selling low-margin assets to improve overall margins. They simply followed what an analyst at a Wall Street consulting firm would say.

Well, the result is a 90% decrease. The question is, well, there must be value now. Just look at the graphs, man. These relapses have occurred several times. If this stock recovers, from here to here, it means its value will increase 10 times in the future. There must be value.

Then we have brands; brands must be valuable. Let's check. Let's move on to the balance sheet. Let's check the ownership rights. First, the fame, that's what they gained from making acquisitions, i.e., what they paid for other brands, and then there are other intangible assets worth 2.5 billion.

So, that's 5.5 billion. That is the value of intangible assets, the value of brands that are on the balance sheet.

If we move to the equity side, it is 4 billion. Therefore, minus 1.5 is the value of equity without accounting for intangible assets. This is not a good thing. We have approximately 7 billion in long-term debt, actually 7 billion when adjusted for the current portion.

Fitch's ratings are BB- with a negative outlook. If you adjust that, it is already classified as junk; the BB category is a highly speculative area.

This is reflected in the new debt position that Whirlpool was able to finance itself with this summer, where the cost is simply 7.5%. 7.5% compared to what they used to pay, which was 1% to 1.5%.

7 billion in debt at 7% compared to 1% means nearly 500 million more to be paid annually. An additional 500 million must be paid annually. If you take into account net income and what they achieved in the good and great years, we cannot expect a return to the pandemic years.

So, on average, we can probably calculate 700 million as average profit minus new debt now. In good times, they can now make an average of 200 million annually, and that's a 10x multiplier that gets you to market value.

On top of everything, we have high interest rates and a housing slump, and they need lower interest rates and a recovery in the US housing sector to get back on their feet. But this certainly doesn't help.

Similarly, other works such as "Lenar" are declining.

You need an economic recovery, not a continuation of the uneven (K-shape) growth of data center investors. Lower rates without a recession are usually accompanied by higher rates.

First, a recession occurs that lowers rates, and only then does a recovery occur, so it may take a few years.

They then also issued convertible preferred shares, diluting the stake of anyone already there. But when you look at this, anything can happen, as Fitch said, it's high-risk speculation.

Perhaps if you bought 20 of them now, and out of those 20, two recovered to give you 5 or 10 times, that might be a strategy, but I wouldn't bet everything on Whirlpool.

They were able to refinance a little for a while, but the crucial question is, if this happens, bondholders will not refinance on these terms. Conditions will become much worse.

At some point, refinancing will no longer be worthwhile. Bondholders will take over the company.

Therefore, miracles are always possible. A reckless private equity firm might buy it, restructure it, and renovate it. You can make a 50% profit, but I would suggest here, especially if we have a negative economic environment in the next few years, bankruptcy followed by a bondholder takeover, a move to a private company, and then a return to public ownership over time.

It will depend on market forces in the housing sector. Simply put, it's not a positive situation in terms of risk and return. They have refinanced their financial situation, but at a much higher cost than before, which simply changes the investment thesis.

In order to survive and perform well, the housing sector needs to recover in the next twelve months, not three years from now. You need to survive for 3 years. At some point, if they are unable to refinance, the bondholders will take over the company.

So, this is the risk. And the reward is a miracle.

So, I stand by my position when it comes to Whirlpool, which is the same position I have held for the past five years.