继续前请同意我们的使用条款、隐私说明及 YouTube 服务条款。

$WMT

$WMT · Schwab Network · 2026-10-28

AI 摘要 · Schwab Network

预计沃尔玛将下跌:在资金逃离科技股期间将其推高约 15% 的防御性买盘已拥挤且正在消退,因资金轮动回债券,因此说话者通过 1 月 15 日期权到期做空,并预计将强势跌破迄今守住的 118 支撑位;晚周期财报近期对该股不利。

看跌他说的是几个月内
《The Big 3: NFLX, LULU, WMT》
Schwab Network发布 2026-10-28 · 4 段内容
08:02/ —打开原视频

逐段跳播

4 段内容

最后,我们现在来看看沃尔玛。沃尔玛今天下跌了。我们今年仍上涨约6.5%,而且我们实际上度过了一个不错的月份。但很明显,这只股票已从今年的最高水平大幅下跌。所以,Don,在我们评估沃尔玛的交易策略时,我们是否在利用它被困在这个区间的事实,我们是否可能看到财报使该股大幅向下重新定价?

Finally, let's move on to Walmart now. Walmart is down today. We're still up about 6.5% this year, and we've actually had a good month. But it is clear that this name has fallen significantly from its highest levels this year.

So, Don, as we evaluate Walmart's trading strategies, are we taking advantage of the fact that it's stuck in this range, and could we see earnings reprice the stock significantly downwards?

你知道,这是一场关于沃尔玛和整体消费必需品的非常有趣的讨论。沃尔玛被特别用作防御性选择。过去两周我们看到的是,交易一直在逃离半导体板块。交易最终包括抛售许多科技股,总体上,它们正在撤退到防御性板块,当然包括沃尔玛。

然而,沃尔玛的股票跳涨了超过15%。我的意思是,这些是巨大的波动,伙计们。看,最终它是“沃尔玛”。你知道,欢迎来到沃尔玛。我知道他们有在线销售,但它仍然是沃尔玛。但再次强调,这是一个更具防御性的选择。

我认为它已经开始下跌,我不认为防御性选择会继续奏效。所以我要在这笔交易上做空,再次强调,是“XLP”基金内的那个防御性选择,该基金当然代表“沃尔玛”内的基本消费品,好吗?这是一笔非常繁忙的交易。

它真的很拥挤。市场已经开始回到债券。他们不再需要沃尔玛。这是一笔看跌交易,但我在这里给自己时间优势。我会持续到1月15日期权到期。期权在1月15日到期。我会以115买入看跌期权,作为回报以105卖出看跌期权。

这是一个整整10美元的卖出价差,以2.60美元的折价执行。

You know, this is a really interesting discussion about Walmart and consumer staples in general. Walmart was specifically used as a defensive option. What we have seen over the past two weeks is that trading has been fleeing the semiconductor sector .

The trading ultimately consisted of selling in many technology stocks in general , and they were retreating towards defensive sectors, which of course include Walmart. However, Walmart's stock jumped by more than 15%.

I mean, these are huge moves, guys. Look, in the end it's " Walmart". You know, welcome to Walmart. I know they have online sales, but it's still Walmart. But again, this was a much more defensive option .

I think it has started to decline and I don't think the defensive option will continue to work anymore. So I'm going to take the downside on this deal, and again, that defensive option within the "XLP " fund, which of course represents the basic consumer goods within " Walmart", okay?

It's a very busy deal. It's really crowded. The market has begun to move back towards bonds. They no longer need Walmart. This is a bearish trade, but I'm giving myself the advantage of time here.

I will continue until the options expire on January 15th. The options expire on January 15th. I will buy put options at 115, and sell put options at 105 in return. It is a full $10 sale price difference executed at a discount of $2.60.

嗯,我喜欢这个。我认为这是对一只核心股票的反直觉立场,但我的意思是,这只股票最近一直在波动,我知道我们至少已从近期低点回升,但我喜欢在沃尔玛采取这种方法。我真的很感激,Don。

最后但同样重要的是,解释一下这里的技术方面,沃尔玛再次从这种更广泛的轮动中受益,但到目前为止今年还不足以使其显著优越。

Well, I like that. I think it's a counterintuitive stance on a core stock, but I mean, this stock has been fluctuating lately, and I know we've at least recovered from our recent lows, but I like this approach at Walmart.

I really appreciate that, Don. Last but not least, explain the technical aspects here where Walmart has again benefited from this wider rotation, but not enough to make it significantly superior so far this year.

嗯,这是投资者随着科技股走势而交替进出的安全股票之一。我认为我们正处于科技股可能再次起飞的那个点,正如我们在过去几天看到的那样。这可能意味着一些轮动以退出沃尔玛。此外,我们在这里处于财报周期的后半段。

沃尔玛在周期稍晚时候公布业绩。因此,我们可能会看到向下移动。最近几次财报对该股极为负面。不管我们看到的短期高点如何。相对强弱指数(RSI)现在正在走出那个极端范围。你在118附近有这个支撑位,这里已经测试了几次。

所以,你正在形成一个有点反身的模式。该水平尚未被突破。当这些水平被突破时,这只股票往往有些波动。因此,我不认为这会是一个需要密切关注的突破。我认为你会在技术上看到118水平下方的强劲突破,

Well, this was one of those safe stocks that investors alternately exited and entered as tech stocks moved . I think we are at that point where technology stocks may take off again, as we have seen in the last couple of days.

This could mean some rotation to get out of Walmart. In addition, we are in the latter half of the earnings cycle here. Walmart announces its results a little later in the cycle.

Therefore, we may see a downward movement. The last few earnings reports have been extremely negative for the stock. Regardless of the short-term highs we have seen. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is now coming out of that extreme range .

You have this support level at approximately 118, which is being tested a few times here. So, you are forming a somewhat reflexive pattern . The level has not yet been broken .

This stock tends to be somewhat volatile when those levels are broken . Therefore, I don't think it will be a fracture that requires intense scrutiny. I think you're going to see a strong break below the 118 level technically here,

观察点

Walmart即将发布的季度财报以及股价对其的反应
对业绩再次出现负面反应,如同最近几次财报那样
即将发布的财报,处于周期后段Walmart的财报
支持看空观点

这个频道对 $WMT 的历次判断

Schwab Network 在这只股票上共 4 条判断,这里只列相邻的几条。

跨洋听风