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$WMT

$WMT · Verified Investing · 2026-10-28

AI 摘要 · Verified Investing

WMT在10月下旬前垂直拉升,目前在118-120区间整理,说话者不会在此买入(他通常在此做空)。他认为回调不可避免,将跌至109-110,该处有2026年5月21日的趋势线与2025年10月16日的枢轴点交汇;他愿意在该价位持有股票,因此卖出2027年1月15日到期、行权价110的看跌期权。

他说的是几个月内
《Where We’d Buy Walmart (And Get Paid While We Wait)》
Verified Investing发布 2026-10-28 · 19 段内容
01:28/ —打开原视频

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19 段内容
1:2819:53

我来看一下沃尔玛股票的一些技术面情况。Apex 实时日内交易室的会员们都知道,我喜欢做空这只股票。但今天,我要看看我会在哪里买入,嗯,就在相反的方向上。

I'm going to take a look at some of the technical aspects of Walmart stock. Our members in the Apex live day trading room know that I like to short sell this stock. But today, I'll see where I'll buy it, well, on the opposite side of that.

是的,我在看沃尔玛。让我把图放大一些,这样你能看得更清楚。好。如我们所见,在10月初,以及随着我们接近10月底,我们的上涨完全是垂直的。我们现在某种程度上处于118-120区间的盘整阶段,这是沃尔玛。

Yes, I'm looking at Walmart. Let me expand on this so that you can get a better view of it. Good. As we can see, at the beginning of October, and as we approach the end of October, our rise has been completely vertical.

We are now somewhat in a consolidation phase in the 118-120 range for Walmart.

所以,正如我所说,我不会在沃尔玛这里买入。我通常在这些价位做空。但我能在哪里买入呢?这里我们要找出支撑位。那么,让我们把注意力放到这条向下倾斜的白色趋势线上。

So, I don't buy here at Walmart, as I said. I usually short sell at these prices. But where can I buy it? Here we will identify the support levels. So, let's draw your attention to the downward-sloping white trend line here.

好。这条线自2026年5月21日以来一直在决定价格。本月早些时候,我们得以突破这条趋势线。那么,Jake,你用来判断何时买入的最好指标之一是什么?是回到“犯罪现场”(突破位)。

我们已经突破了这里的价格走势,越过了这条趋势线。我希望价格一回到这条趋势线就买入。这是必然的。我不会在这些价位上多付钱。

Good. This line has been determining the price since May 21, 2026. Earlier this month, we were able to break through this trend line. So, what is one of the best indicators that you, Jake, use to know when to buy?

It's a return to the "crime scene" (penetration level). We have broken through the price action here from this trend line. I want to buy as soon as the price returns to this trend line.

This is inevitable. I will not pay extra at these prices here.

所以,针对这一集、这个论点,我打算在110这一水平卖出看跌期权。也就是说,如果价格回落调整,大概会在109到110这个区域。

So, I am looking to buy or sell a put option for this episode, and for this thesis, at the 110 level. That is where if the price comes back to correct, it will be around 109 to 110 in that area.

现在,我们要确保有多个支撑位。我们从这条白色趋势线得到一个因素。我现在还要把范围扩大一点。现在,我把你的注意力引向这条蓝色水平趋势线。这是2025年10月16日的一个主要关键高点。

是的。嗯,这也是一个关键支撑位。如我们在这里所见,价格触及这条趋势线时大幅反弹,并跳到其上方很高。这里是一个很好的支撑位。当我们看短期价格走势时,我们看到价格从这条趋势线反弹、上涨、继续反弹、继续反弹。

嗯。现在,同一个水平在突破时充当阻力,现在将充当支撑。

Now, we want to ensure that there are multiple levels of support. We have one factor from this white trend line. I'm also going to expand the scope a little now. Now, I will draw your attention to this blue horizontal trend line.

Now, this is a major pivotal summit here from October 16, 2025. Yes. Well, this is also a key support level. As we can see here, the price bounces sharply when it touches this trend line and jumps high above it.

This is a great level of support here. As we look at the price action in the short term, we see here that the price bounces off this trend line, goes up, continues to bounce, and continues to bounce.

Hmm. Now, the same level that was acting as resistance when we broke through it will now act as support.

太棒了。所以,我们现在在109-110水平有两个因素。嗯。这是我想卖出“看跌”期权的最低价格。明白吗?因此,我打算在109-110水平卖出“看跌”期权。为什么,Jake?为什么会这样?

因为我不反对在这个价格买入并持有这些股票。在那之前,如果价格继续波动或上涨,我就卖出这个支撑位,收取那笔利润(权利金)。

amazing. So, we now have two factors at the 109-110 level. Hmm. This is the minimum price at which I am looking to sell a "put" option. concept? Therefore, I am looking to sell a "put" option at the 109-110 level.

Why, Jake? Why is this? Because I have no objection to buying and owning these shares at this price. Until then, if the price continues to fluctuate or rise, I will sell this support level and collect that profit (premium).

所以,如果你认为沃尔玛会在那个位置企稳并继续上涨,你本可以选择118这一水平。嗯。我喜欢110这一水平,因为我们识别出了那些支撑位,好吗?

So you could have chosen level 118 if you thought Walmart would settle at that point and continue to rise. Hmm. I like the 110 level because we identified those support levels, okay?

那么,首先,各位,我在看沃尔玛,或者说 WMT,抱歉,我们在看跌期权这一侧,打算卖出。那么,首先,在这个期权链里,Jake,我看到了什么?嗯,买入和卖出合约的利率以及成交量目前倾向于看涨。

嗯,我们低于1.0水平。这目前有利于买入合约而非卖出合约。所以,趋势目前是向上的。这很好。我们可以继续卖出一些权利金。利用这一点,这会增加我们在不必买入的情况下获得那笔收益的机会。

好。我们会耐心等待,直到趋势反转或价格跌到支撑区,以拿到那些更便宜的价格。

So, first thing, guys, I'm looking at Walmart or WMT, sorry, and we're on the put side looking to sell. So, to begin with, in the series, what do I see, Jake? Well, interest rates on buy and sell contracts and trading volume tend to be bullish at the moment.

Well, we are below level 1.0. This currently favors purchase contracts over sale contracts. So, the trend is currently upward. This is good. We can continue to sell some premiums.

Take advantage of that, and this will increase our chances of obtaining that bonus without having to buy. Okay. We will wait patiently until the trend reverses or the price drops to the support zone to get those cheaper prices.

嗯,买入和卖出合约的利率以及成交量目前倾向于看涨。嗯,我们低于1.0水平。这目前有利于买入合约而非卖出合约。所以,趋势目前是向上的。这很好。我们可以继续卖出一些权利金。利用这一点,这会增加我们在不必买入的情况下获得那笔收益的机会。

Well, interest rates on buy and sell contracts and trading volume tend to be bullish at the moment . Well, we are below level 1.0. This currently favors purchase contracts over sale contracts .

So, the trend is currently upward. This is good. We can continue to sell some premiums . Take advantage of that, and this will increase our chances of obtaining that bonus without having to buy.

我们会耐心等待,直到趋势反转或价格跌到支撑区,以拿到那些更便宜的价格。我们只能等。我们只能等。我想让你看一下这个期权链里的隐含波动率(IV)排名和隐含波动率(IV百分位)。就在上面这个测量框里。好。那么,这个环境有利于卖方还是买方?

We will wait patiently until the trend reverses or the price drops to the support zone to get those cheaper prices. We can only wait. We can only wait. I want you to take a look at the implied volatility (IV) rank and the implied volatility (IV percentile) in the series.

It's in this measurement box above. Good. Now, does this environment favor the seller or the buyer?

看起来有利于买方。你为什么这么说?也许是因为它在80%区间的高位,如果我没记错的话超过了60%,还是我完全错了?那么,你刚才说,区间是多少?这样做对吗?因为我当时在想给隐含波动率和百分位分类。

哦。我是不是读错数字了?这是82%吗?波动率评级72,百分位82%。是的。好。那么看来,在我们讲完卖出和买入合约的利率以及成交量之后。这是我的上涨。好。我就是这么想的。我只是问你,Tabi,这个环境的性质是什么?

如果隐含波动率高,哦。好。那么,如果隐含波动率高,这个环境对卖方有利,因为权利金高。好。做得好。你慢慢来做得很好,Tabi。你答对了。好。那么,是的,这个环境,抱歉。沃尔玛更偏向卖方。好。

It looks favorable to buyers. Why do you say that? Perhaps because it is high in the 80% range, exceeding 60% if I remember correctly, or am I completely wrong? So, you just said, what is the range?

Is it the right thing to do? Because I was thinking about classifying implied volatility and percentiles. Oh. Am I reading the number wrong? Is this 82%? Volatility rating 72, percentile 82%.

Yes. Good. It seems that, then, after we have finished with the interest on sales and purchase contracts and the trading volume. This is my rise. Good. That's what I thought. I'm just asking you, Tabi , what is the nature of the environment?

If the implied volatility is high, oh . Good. So, if implied volatility is high, the environment is good for sellers because the premium is high. Good . good job. You did well to take your time, Tabi.

You hit the target. Good. So, yes, this environment , excuse me. Sellers are preferred by Walmart. Good.

现在,我们来看一下期权链,看看能得出什么。我们在看卖出合约的110这一水平。我们想要多长时间?是的,我不想选23天。我在考虑要么12月18日,大约距今51天,要么1月15日。我大概率会看看这两个。我在这里关注110。

Now , let's take a look at the series and see what we can come up with. We are looking at a level of 110 for the sale contract. And how long do we want? Yes, I don't want to choose 23 days.

I am thinking either December 18, which is about 51 days from now, or January 15. I'll probably take a look at these two . And I'm watching the 110 here.

卖出这个时,我们的 delta 是 -220。这对我们卖方有利。这里的 delta 是负的吗,Tabi?因为我们看的是看跌期权。正确。如果我们看的是买入期权(看涨期权)呢?它会是正的。

正确。那么,这个 delta 变动的范围是多少?哦,它归结为正一或负一。正确。那么,负一是对谁而言?负一是对看跌期权而言。正是对买入期权而言。我的错。做得好。好。我在学习。

When selling this, our delta is at -220. This is good for us as sellers. Is the delta negative here, Tabi? Because we are looking at put options. correct. What if we were looking at purchase options (calls)?

It will be positive. correct. Now, what is the range of this delta movement? Oh , it comes down to positive one or negative one. correct. So, negative one for whom? Negative one for put options.

Positive for purchase options. on me. good job. Good. I am learning.

所以,我在看110,我们今天这里有一些成交量,还有很强的未平仓量。我想看到更多成交量。这很重要。好吗?这会增强我们的信心。

So, I'm looking at 110 and we have some volume here today, and a strong open interest. I want to see more volume. important. Good? That will add to our conviction.

这个规模是新资金还是旧资金?新资金。新资金。你今天完全正确,Tabby。你学得很好。做得好。那么,是的。现在,我在看这个日期,1月15日。好,Tabby。好。哪个执行价的成交量最高?

我们是在看109到110,还是你想让我把它们全看一遍?其中哪个最高?就看这个期权链。你认为哪个执行价的成交量最高?哦天哪,那个110,541。没错。这比附近任何其他期权都高出五倍。

Is this size new money or old money? New money. New money. You were absolutely right today, Tabby. You were studying very well . good job. So, yes. Now, I am looking at this date, January 15th.

Okay, Tabby. Okay . Which execution price has the highest volume? Are we looking at 109 to 110, or do you want me to look at them all? Which is the highest among them? Just check the series.

Which execution price do you think has the highest volume? Oh man, that 110,541. That's right. This is five times higher than any of the other nearby options.

有一个非常远。我们看到了,我们会关注它。有300人在85的卖出期权上进场。哇。离当前价格非常远(虚值)。那里的 delta 甚至都不到0.1。这挺有意思的。没错。就像,嗯,他们知道什么?

没错。他们知道什么?也许是焦虑之墙。成交量。看看那个,各位。这是一个关键要点。好吗?它可能表明一个新的关注点。

There is one that is very far away. We see it, and we will pay attention to it. 300 people are coming in at the 85 sell option. Wow. Very far from the current price (out of the money).

The delta there isn't even at 0.1. This is rather funny. This is correct. Like, well, what do they know? correct. What do they know? Perhaps it's the wall of anxiety. Trading volume.

Check that out, guys. This is a key takeaway. Good? It may indicate a new focus.

好。不过现在我喜欢1月15日这个到期日。这是一个有利于卖方的丰厚环境。是的。我会做这个,我会卖出这份行权价为110的看跌期权。这就是今天的计划。

Good. Now, however, I like the January 15th expiry date. It is a rich environment that favors the seller. Yes. I will get this, I will sell this put option at the strike price of 110. And that is the plan for today.

太棒了。好,我们来看最终的计划图,画得很漂亮。我们要卖出一份到期日为2027年1月15日的看跌期权。这是一份价格为110美元的看跌期权。距离到期还有79天,而权利金只有2.39美元。

记住,我们只是等待,然后不断收钱。买价和卖价是236到241。所以,这里的保证金很简单,权利金收入是239。每份合约239美元。我们为此需要的保证现金是11,000美元。记住,我们需要把这笔现金配置好以保证安全,并确保我们有能力支付。

如果被行权,实际成本将是每股107.61美元,而我们的最大亏损大约是10,000,所以如果我们配置11,000,就没问题。我们的delta是-0.24,正好在我们作为卖方想要的范围内。这是正确的。这就是今天的计划,各位。

amazing. Okay, let's look at the final plan drawing we have beautifully. We are selling a put option with an expiry date of January 15, 2027. It is a put option with a price of $110.

There are 79 days until that expiry, and the bonus is only $2.39. And remember, we are just waiting and we keep getting it. The bid and ask price is 236 to 241. So, the margin is simple there, and the credit is 239. $239 per contract.

The guaranteed cash we need for this is $11,000. Remember, we need to allocate this cash to be safe and to ensure our ability to pay. The actual cost in case of allocation would be $107.61 per share, and our maximum loss is about 10,000, so we will be fine if we allocate 11,000.

Our delta is at -0.24, which is exactly in the range we want as sellers. This is correct. That's the plan for today, guys.

这个频道对 $WMT 的历次判断

Verified Investing 在这只股票上共 3 条判断,这里只列相邻的几条。

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