XE因现金消耗以及反应堆要到2030年代初才能投运,一个月内下跌超过35%,较IPO下跌70%;但Amazon的支持和约11.5 GW的SMR项目储备使这轮下跌成为投机性买入机会。他可能建立小仓位,不过尚未买入,因为他已持有能源类股票。
逐段跳播
X-Energy,小型模块化反应堆领域的先驱,交易代码为XE。Cathy本月刚刚又买入了超过70万股,价值约750万美元。
X-Energy, a pioneer in small modular reactors, with the trading symbol XE. Cathy just bought over 700,000 additional shares this month, worth about $7.5 million.
现在来看股价走势图,我们看到(XE)仅在过去一个月就下跌了超过35%,延续了该股自4月高调首次公开募股以来的惨淡表现。
Now, looking at the stock chart, we see that (XE) has fallen by more than 35% in the last month alone, continuing the stock's dismal performance since its high-profile initial public offering in April.
此后该股已累计蒸发超过70%的总市值。那么,为什么投资者会如此激进地抛售这只股票?说到底,这确实要归因于公司当前的时间表,以及持续拖累它的巨额现金消耗。抱歉。
The stock has since lost more than 70% of its total value. So why are investors getting rid of the stock with such aggression? Well, it really comes down to the company’s current timeline and the massive cash burn that continues to hamper it all the way . Sorry.
另外,虽然核能为AI数据中心供电的长期愿景在未来看起来非常有前景,但问题在于,X-Energy很可能要到2030年代初才能让首批商业反应堆投入运行。
Also, while the long-term vision for nuclear powering AI data centers looks very promising for the future, the problem is that X- Energy will probably not get its first commercial reactors up and running until the early 2030s .
在那之前,市场会继续只把它们看作一家消耗大量现金的研发与工程公司。
Until that happens, the market will continue to view them simply as a research, development, and engineering company that consumes a lot of cash.
就我个人而言,我并不认为X-Energy会落到那一步,但郑重说明一下,分析师预计仅今年其净亏损就将超过4.3亿美元,自由现金流为负的规模也接近5亿美元。
Personally, I don't expect that to happen to X- Energy, but for the record, analysts expect their net loss this year alone to exceed $430 million , with negative free cash flow also approaching half a billion dollars.
因此,在投资者本就对高风险科技感到紧张的市场里,这种现金流失正促使短线交易者纷纷逃离。另一方面,以下是Cathy Wood在这样下跌或崩盘的情况下仍选择买入的原因。因为如果你稍微从更大的格局来看,就会发现科技巨头正面临一场迫在眉睫的能源危机。
AI数据中心需要全天候持续供应巨量电力,而风能和太阳能无法全天连续提供。因此,大型云计算服务提供商意识到,先进核能确实将是唯一能够扩大规模以满足其需求的无碳解决方案。
So, in a market where investors are already nervous about high- risk technology, this kind of cash drain is driving short-term traders to flee. On the other hand, here's why Cathy Wood made a purchase in light of this decline or collapse.
Because if you look at the bigger picture a little , you'll find that the tech giants are facing an energy crisis looming on the horizon. AI data centers require a huge amount of continuous power around the clock, which wind and solar power cannot provide continuously throughout the day.
Therefore, major cloud computing service providers realize that advanced nuclear power will truly be the only carbon-free solution capable of scaling up to meet their needs.
X-Energy没有选择花约15年建造巨型发电厂,而是选择设计使用自有燃料的模块化小型反应堆;与传统反应堆使用水冷铀棒不同,它使用的是氦冷却、外覆陶瓷层且无法熔化的燃料球,有助于彻底防止核熔毁,这对推动核能发展将非常重要。
Instead of spending about 15 years building giant power plants , X- Energy chose to design its own modular small reactors that use its own fuel, which, unlike conventional reactors that use water- cooled uranium rods , uses helium-cooled pellets coated with ceramic layers that cannot melt, helping to completely prevent nuclear meltdowns, which will be very important for boosting nuclear power.
眼下,此时此刻,他们正在田纳西州建造自己的燃料设施“TH-1”,该设施上一季度已完成主体结构封顶,并有望在2028年前开始生产商业燃料。这是个好迹象。
Right now, at this moment, they are building their own fuel facility, "TH-1," in Tennessee, which completed vertical construction in the last quarter and is on track to begin manufacturing commercial fuels by 2028. That's a good sign.
他们已经获得了巨大的支持。例如,Amazon不仅持有大量股份,还与X-Energy合作,计划到2039年提供超过5吉瓦的小型模块化反应堆(SMR)电力。Dow Chemical正在其得克萨斯州工厂实施四反应堆项目,预计2027年初获得建筑许可;Centrica也在与X-Energy合作,计划在英国提供最多6吉瓦电力,这使X-Energy未来在144座反应堆上拥有约11.5吉瓦的规划。
They already have huge support. For example, Amazon not only has a large stake , but has partnered with X-Energy to provide more than 5 gigawatts of small modular reactor (SMR) power by 2039.
Dow Chemical is implementing a four-reactor plant at its Texas facility, with building permits expected in early 2027, and Centrica is also collaborating with X-Energy to provide up to 6 gigawatts in the UK, giving X-Energy a future plan for around 11.5 gigawatts across 144 reactors.
我想说的是,X-Energy在这里显然有着巨大的需求。再说一次,拥有全球最大数据中心运营商Amazon的支持,是看好X-Energy未来的一个非常有力的理由和依据,不是吗?
Well, I think the point I want to make is that there is clearly a huge demand here for X-Energy. Once again, having the backing of the world’s largest data center operator , Amazon, is a very strong reason and justification for optimism about the future of X-Energy, isn’t it?
事实上,分析师平均认为该股股价将较当前低点上涨一倍以上。那么,我是否支持Cathy在低位买入,我自己是否也在买入股票?对于Cathy那个专注于创新和高风险的投资组合来说,我认为这完全说得通。
这正是你会预期像她这样的人去投资的那类公司和技术。
In fact, analysts on average believe the stock price will more than double from its current lows. So, do I support Cathy buying when the price is low, and am I buying shares myself?
Well, for Cathy's portfolio, which focuses on innovation and high risk, I think it makes perfect sense . This is exactly the type of company and technology you would expect someone like her to invest in.
坦率地说,我必须说,股价越低,我的直觉就越告诉我,我肯定也应该为自己的投资组合抓一小部分投机性仓位。
And frankly, I must say, the lower the stock price, the more my intuition tells me that I should definitely grab a small, speculative portion of it for my own portfolio as well.
跟大家说实话,它越是继续下跌,在我的关注列表上就越重要,我也就越会去琢磨它。但我还没买入它的唯一原因很简单:我在能源板块已经持有了好几只不同的股票,其中一些是非常稳健的标的,比如 NextEra 和 Duke Energy,另一些则更具投机性,比如我们接下来要讨论的那家公司。
To be honest with you guys, the more it continues to decline, the more important it becomes on my watchlist , and the more I think about it. But the only reason I have n't bought it yet is simply that I already own several different stocks in the energy sector , some of which are very safe names like NextEra and Duke Energy, and others that are more speculative, like the company we will discuss next.