XLE 迟早会出现相当剧烈的回调：它与油价高度相关，目前已高出三个标准差，而油价应回落至每桶 60-70 美元，从而削减能源公司的收入。有耐心的买家很可能很快迎来买入机会。
逐段跳播
你觉得 XLE 的价格会下跌吗？不，完全不会。是的，XLE 的价格当然会下跌，而且会跌得相当厉害。因为油价就是这样。从历史上看，油价——也就是能源公司的收入来源——和 XLE 之间一直有非常高的相关性。
Do you think the price of XLE will drop? No, not at all. Yes, of course the price of XLE will fall, and it will fall quite sharply. Because that's what happens with oil prices.
Historically, there has been a very high correlation between the price of oil, which is the source of income for energy companies, and XLE.
所以，每当油价出现回调——就像今年早些时候那样——当油价下跌时，油价出现了反转，XLE 也随之回调。而从那以后，油价突然上涨，XLE 的价格也随之上涨了，对吧？
And so, whenever there was a correction in oil prices , just like there was earlier this year , when oil prices fell, there was a reversal in oil prices and the XLE also corrected.
And since then there's been this sudden increase in oil prices and the price of the XLE has also increased, right?
如你所见，它现在高出三个标准差。它会在某个时候回调，而当油价回落时，情况会相当不错。
And as you can see, it's now three standard deviations above. It will correct at some point, and when oil prices come down, it will be quite good.
所以，如果油价回落到 60-70 美元，而它们在某个时候很可能会回落，因为那才是经济最好的时候，一切运转得非常顺利。我能以每桶 60-70 美元开采石油，还能赚钱。并不是汽油价格对消费者造成严重影响、降低石油需求之类的。
每桶 60-70 美元，对这个价格来说是一个相当不错的水平。所以我们在某个时候会回到那个水平，而当那发生时，就意味着这些能源公司的收入会下降，因为油价在下跌，XLE 的价格也会随之下跌。
So if oil prices fall back to $60-70 , which they probably will at some point, because that's the best time for the economy, when everything is going very well. I can extract oil at $ 60-70 per barrel , I can make a profit.
It's not that gasoline prices are having a serious impact on consumers, reducing demand for oil , etc. The price per barrel is $60-70, which is a pretty good level for this price.
So we will get back down to that level at some point and when that happens, that means the income of these energy companies will go down, because the price of oil is going down and the price of XLE will go down with it.
如果你在寻找买入能源板块股票的好机会，耐心一点。你很可能很快就会等到机会。
If you are looking for a good opportunity to buy energy sector stocks , be patient. You will probably get an opportunity very soon.