$XLE · The Compound · 2026-10-28
自新冠疫情低点以来，XLE 跑赢 SPY 约 400%，但其在指数中的权重仍不足 4%。说话者认为能源股按个位数市盈率看很便宜，本应涨得更多，只是许多表现落后的个股拖累了整个板块；一位被引述的对冲基金经理预计，AI 用电需求将几乎必然导致未来两年天然气短缺，但价格尚未反映这一点。
逐段跳播
自新冠疫情暴跌以来，XLE 与 SPY 的表现对比，真的有人清楚吗？我知道没有人能完美地抄到那个直觉上的底部，但我认为，看看那样一次暴跌的底部是很有启发性的，因为很多时候赢家和输家会彻底换位，而能源就是变化最大的那个。
is anyone actually aware of XLE versus SPY performance since the COVID crash? I know no one actually times the bottom of the instinct perfectly, but I think it is instructive to look at the bottom of a crash like that because a lot of times the winners and losers are totally changed and energy is the biggest one.
所以，在截至那个底部之前的10年里，CO 能源股累计下跌了54%。这就是为什么它仍然只占指数的不到4%——因为没错，从底部算起，这十年来它跑赢了大约400%，但它仍然只是很小的一块。
So in the 10 years leading up to the bottom of CO energy stocks were down 54% in total. this is why it's still less than 4% of the index because yes, it's outperformed by like 400% this this decade so far from the bottom, but it's still a tiny piece.
我认为2020年能源板块最终下跌了大约33%，而标普最终上涨了18。
I think in 2020, energy finished down like 33%. And the S&P finished up 18.
说实话，考虑到能源板块发生的情况，这些股票本应涨得比现在更多。这个板块里有太多输家在拖累整个板块的表现。市盈率都只有个位数。就是说，它当时很便宜。
Honestly, given what's gone on with energy, these stocks should be up even more than they are. There are so many losers in this sector holding back the sectorwide performance. the PE ratios were all like single digits. Like, it was it was cheap.
不过，你觉得这些公司是不是有点因小失大？就是说，它们现在正在收获回报，但这些故事会把很多人，把很多大企业，推向清洁能源或电动汽车之类的东西。
Do you think these companies though are kind of being penny smart and pound foolish? Like, they're they're reaping the rewards right now, but they're going to push a lot of people into, you know, big businesses into clean energy or into EVs and that kind of stuff by these stories.
天然气价格在过去15年里实际上是下跌的。美国和加拿大加起来，我们坐拥大约200年的供应量。
natural gas prices are actually down over the last 15 years. Between the United States and Canada, we're sitting on like a 200year supply.
Patrick Oonessy 请了一位对冲基金经理上节目，这位经理下了重注，认为 AI 的需求、为 AI 供电的电力需求，几乎保证了未来两年我们将陷入天然气短缺，而这是当前市场上最肥的投球。
Patrick uh Oonessy had a hedge fund manager on who's making this massive bet that the demands of AI, the demands for electricity to fuel AI virtually guarantee we're going to be in a natural gas shortage in the next 2 years and that that is the fattest pitch in the market right now.
人们不相信这一点，因为天然气价格似乎从来都不怎么动。
people don't believe it because the price of natural gas seems to never do anything.
我认为 Marathon、Valero 和 Phillips 按这个顺序，是 XLE ETF 中表现排名第一、第二和第三的公司。
Marathon, Valero, and Phillips, I think in that order, are the the numbers one, two, and three performers in the XLE ETF.