因预期资金将从科技板块轮动而出，看涨XLU；通过看涨期权价差瞄准41-45美元区间。
逐段跳播
但我想转到你的下一个，Don。你的第二个选择是 State Street 的公用事业板块 ETF。那么你怎么看公用事业？
Uh but I want to move uh to your next one, Don. You've got the utility sector ETF from State Street here as your second pick. So how are you looking at utilities?
是的，这实际上将是一笔看涨交易，但可以说，它是出于所有正确的看跌理由而看涨。看，科技股只要一开始抛售。而且它已经有过惊人的涨势。我相信我们会看到资金轮动回 XLU。
Yeah, this is actually going to be a bullish trade, but it's it's bullish for all the right bearish reasons, if you will. Look, tech starts to sell off at all. And it has had an amazing run.
I believe that we're going to see a rotation back into XLU.
但 XLU 公用事业，正如我们稍后在 Rick 深入研究这张图表时即将看到的，它很难看。它确实很难看，但这就是那种我想在它真正开始走出那波行情之前先埋伏进去的东西，好吧。
but XLU utilities as we're about to see in the chart in a moment when Rick uh digs into this it is ugly. It is it is ugly but this is the kind of thing I want to gut into okay before it starts to actually make that move.
不过我可以用一个风险有限的期权价差来做到这一点，而这正是我打算做的。所以是的，这将是一笔看涨交易，但它在 XLU 上看涨，是因为我预期科技股即将出现一波看跌走势，你知道，可能就在接下来几周。
So I can do that though using a defined risk option spread and that's exactly what I intend to do. So yes, this is going to be a bullish trade, but it's bullish in XLU because I'm looking at a bearish tech move coming, you know, possibly in the next few weeks.
所以在 XLU 上，我会做到 D18 期权到期日。再说一次，D18 期权到期日。再一次给自己时间的礼物。为什么？因为我买的是一个价外价差。在这种情况下，我会买入 41 看涨期权，买入 41 看涨期权，同时卖出 45 看涨期权。
这是一个不错的 4 美元宽看涨价差，成本约为 80 美元借方。
So in XLU, I'm going to go out to the D18 options expiration. Again, D18 options expiration. Giving myself once again the gift of time. Why? Because I'm purchasing an out- of- money spread.
In this case, I'm going to buy the 41 calls. Buying the 41 calls, selling the 45 calls against it. It's a nice $4 wide call spread done for about an 80 debit.
所以如果你有这样一个价外价差，你为它支付 80 美分。再说一次，这是一笔概率较低的交易。但这里的例子就是，我要搏一把。我搏的是轮动会发生，我们会在公用事业板块内再次拉升，而该板块今年以来一直遭到重创，尤其是从最近的一些高点以来。
So if you have a spread like this that's an out of the money spread, you're paying 80 cents for it. Again, it is a lower probability trade. But case in point over here, I'm taking a shot.
I'm taking a shot that the rotation happens and we uh we start to rip again inside of the utilities which have just been pummeled in the uh in the year to date, especially from uh some of the recent highs.
是的。是的，我的意思是，即使只看过去 6 个月，我们也下跌了大约 13%。所以，对于 State Street Select Utilities ETF，我们在这里看跌科技、看涨公用事业，Rick。
正如你所看到的 Don 刚才强调的，公用事业一直承受着巨大的压力。
Yeah. Yeah, I mean, and even just looking over the last 6 months, I mean, we're down about 13% here. So, we're bearish tech, bullish utilities here for the State Street Select Utilities ETF, Rick.
And as you can see what Don just highlighted there, I mean, utilities have been under a great deal of pressure.
当然。方向性也取决于你的时间周期。你可能在长期仍然看空，而在短期看多。你可以做各种不同的组合，但41也是我在这里关注的一个水平。我们在这里出现了一个反复触及的低点，而这里正是行情真正开始走弱的地方。
Sure. And, you know, directionality depends on your time horizon, too, as well. I mean, uh, you could still have a bearish view, uh, in the long term and a bullish view in the short term.
You know, all kinds of different setups you can do, but 41 is a level that I was, uh, interested in as well here. We had kind of a repeated low here and then this is where things really started to break down.
与此同时，45这个位置，我们在这里有过几个低点，随后在大致这一区域出现了一个高点。所以，这大致就是这笔交易会瞄准的区域。
Meanwhile, 45, uh, we had a couple of lows here and then a subsequent high roughly around that area. So, that that's kind of the the general area this trade would be targeting.
还有几个值得关注的横向水平。39是我们近期低点所在的位置。我们在这里也有一个重要的低点。我们在那里再次触底，随后继续走弱。我们在这里还有一个4371的双顶型高点，提供一个更细的价位水平。
Some other horizontal levels to watch. 39's where we had our recent lows. We also had our uh significant low point here. We bottomed out there again and then continued our breakdown.
We also had a double top type of high here at 4371 to give a a bit more of a granular level there.
深蓝色代表的5日EMA，也就是一周，位于3974。价格已经上穿该线。下一个需要关注的是青色代表的21日EMA，也就是一个月，位于4081。
Our 5-day EMA in dark blue representing one week comes in at 3974. Price has crossed above that one. The next one to watch out for our 21-day EMA in teal representing one month at 4081.
RSI在这里有所改善。我们此前处于超卖区域。你可以看到30这个阈值。我们开始走高，创出新的相对高点。不过下行趋势仍在延续，我们仍位于50中轴下方。所以多头希望看到与价格相匹配的持续高点，以及那条趋势线被突破。要重新回到50中轴上方，还有相当多的工作要做。
RSI improving somewhat here. We were in the oversold area. You can see that threshold of 30. Uh we are starting to climb higher making new relative highs. Downward trend is still in play though and we are still below the 50 midline.
So the the bulls would want to see uh continued highs matching up with price and for that trend line to be broken. uh still quite a bit of work to do to get back above the 50 midline as well.
这里的成交量分布显示，我们在39到40这一带有过一个显著的成交量密集区。所以，这是这里值得考虑的一件有意思的事。还要注意，我们最近在这里看到了很多非常重的成交量峰值。这表明也许已经触及了一个重要的低点。
这当然并不意味着它会守住，也不意味着它不会跌得更低，但在一个显著的低点出现放量，而我们在39附近一直守住这个支撑水平，这是许多交易者可能会留意的。
Our volume profile here shows that we've had a notable pocket of trading volume down here at 39 to 40. So, this is kind of an interesting thing to consider here. Notice as well, we've seen a lot of very heavy volume spikes here recently.
This is suggesting that perhaps an important low point has been reached. It certainly doesn't mean it's going to hold or that it won't go lower, but heavy volume at a at a notable low where we've kind of consistently held this supportive level near 39 is something many traders might take note of.
我们还可以看到，如果我们继续再往上走一点，4250左右到4350是我们上方下一个成交量节点所在的位置。好，从今天的走势来看，它今天小幅走高。XLU上涨约半个百分点，报39.88。
We can also see if we were to keep climbing a little bit higher, uh 4250 or so to 4350 is where our next volume node comes in to the upside. All right, as we look at it today, it is moving slightly higher today.
We are up about a half a percent here for XLU at 39.88. 88.
这个频道对 $XLU 的历次判断
Schwab Network 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。